Premier League Betting: West Ham now 4/1 for a top-four finish

West Ham made it seven wins from their last nine Premier League matches with a 2-1 victory over Tottenham at the London Stadium on Sunday. After only totalling 39 points in the 2019/2020 season where they narrowly avoided relegation, few would have predicted the Hammers to be in fourth place with still a third of the season remaining the following campaign. 

David Moyes’ side currently have 45 points and have only suffered one defeat in the league since Christmas. Here at BettingOdds.com we’ve taken a look at how West Ham’s price to finish in the Premier League top-four market has changed over the season and what lies ahead in the coming weeks.

Three figure price!

September 12 feels like a lifetime ago with what’s gone on in the world over the last few months, but that was the day in which this season’s Premier League kicked-off and the bookmakers had West Ham at just 7/2 to be relegated after failing to hit the 40 point mark last term.

Before a ball was kicked the Irons were 150/1 with Betfair and Paddy Power to finish in the top-four. After failing to win in their first two league matches that price drifted to 200/1. Emphatic 4-0 & 3-0 victories over Wolves and Leicester followed to kick-start their season and after well earned points against Manchester City and Spurs thanks to Manuel Lanzini’s stunner back in October, they went into November at 50/1 for a top-four finish.

Three consecutive wins in November pushed the Hammers further up the table, but with just one win from six in December it left them in tenth position, with now odds of 66/1 to qualify for the 2021-22 Champions League. 

The turn of the year is where West Ham’s current run really started. Victory at Goodison Park on New Year’s Day was the first of their seven wins in their last nine games. The Irons only defeat in that period came at home to Liverpool and with 13 games remaining, they are now just 4/1 to finish inside the top-four, an 20% implied chance offered up by the bookies.

Contributions from all areas

When trying to pinpoint the reason for West Ham’s success so far this season I feel much of it comes from their base of Declan Rice and Tomas Soucek in midfield. The pair have been excellent in the middle of the park with Soucek currently being the top-scorer in the league on eight goals, although it is worth noting that Michail Antonio has started nine fewer games.

In defence Aaron Cresswell has been superb, with six assists to his name only Luke Shaw and Andy Robertson have created more chances from the same position than the 31-year-old this term. Vladimir Coufal also looks worth every penny of his £5.4m transfer fee, with only Chelsea, Aston Villa and Manchester City keeping more clean sheets this campaign.

Jesse Lingard has wasted no time in showing his abilities since his loan move from Manchester United. The 28-year-old with a point to prove has scored three goals and provided an assist in his first four appearances for the east London club which has led to talk about a potential permanent switch to the capital.

What’s ahead in the coming weeks?

Having a look ahead and West Ham do have a slightly tough run of fixtures ahead of them. In their next four games the Hammers face both Manchester clubs and also have Arsenal and Leeds to deal with.

West Ham’s next six games

27 February - Manchester City (a)
8 March - Leeds (h)
13 March - Manchester United (a)
21 March - Arsenal (h)
3 April - Wolves (a)
10 April - Leicester (h)

With Manchester City next up for West Ham we’d be advising those who fancy backing them to finish in the top-four to hold fire until after this game. City are just 2/9 to win at the Etihad next Saturday and the likelihood is that bigger than the current 4/1 for a Hammers top-four finish will be available after the game. One real bonus for David Moyes’ side for the remainder of the season will be that they will not be playing in European games midweek like many of the teams around them in the table, which will allow them to be fully focused on this format.