Premier League Betting: Partey, Bale, Cavani, where do the betting opportunities lie for the new signings?
The transfer window has finally closed almost a week into October with several clubs scampering around on the final day to try and bolster their squad for the 2020/21 season.
New arrivals in the Premier League can often lead to betting opportunities with players potentially being priced up a shade little bigger than they should be. Our Premier League columnist @AnthonyEadson has taken a look into five of the new boys on the block, and has delved into the data, identifying which betting markets we should be looking at and where opportunities may arise.
Edinson Cavani - Shots on Target
It feels very much like the Titanic was just about to set sail when we first heard Edinson Cavani’s name linked with Manchester United, but the move has finally come to fruition and the Uruguayan has joined on a one-year deal from PSG.
Now at the age of 33, Cavani’s best years are most likely to be in the past and it’s fair to say I’ve not been the biggest fan of his over the last few seasons. In Ligue 1 last season Cavani scored just four goals from an xG (expected goals) figure of 10.24. To put that into perspective, no player scored less than nine that had also racked up that amount of opportunities in France’s top division. He seriously under performed in 2019/20 and Ed Woodward has still come knocking at the door.
Looking at the Uruguayan’s stats for shots on target from last season and in the 12 games he started for PSG, he only registered one or more shots on target in six of those (50%). Two or more shots on target landed in three of the 12 games (25%) with three or more landing on just one occasion (8%.)
With the speed and intensity of the Premier League I feel Cavani will almost certainly be under-priced in the shots and shots on target betting markets and I’d be airing with caution when adding him into any Same Game Multis or Bet Builders. Game time may also be an issue for Cavani with United already have a plethora of attacking options in Anthony Martial, Marcus Rashford, Mason Greenwood and Odion Ighalo.
Thomas Partey - To be carded
One of the highlights of another over marketed transfer deadline day was Arsenal’s signing of Thomas Partey from Atletico Madrid. The Ghanaian has arrived after the Gunners met the £45 million release clause for the defensive midfielder.
Precision passing is one of the key attributes of Partey’s game and I feel he could be a real positive signing for Mikel Arteta’s side. However, where I’ll be focusing my attention for the 27-year-old is in the cards betting markets.
The former Atletico Madrid man has been yellow carded 79 times in his club career. Last season in La Liga he recorded his biggest ever haul of bookings, with an impressive 13 in 35 appearances. Yes there are generally more yellow cards in La Liga but that’s still more than anyone in the entire Premier League in the most recent campaign. It will be interesting to see how bookmakers price up Thomas Partey in the betting markets but if he’s anything around the 4/1 mark or higher I’d be considering a punt.
Gareth Bale - Shots on Target
Seven years after leaving, Gareth Bale is back at Spurs and back in the Premier League. We all can remember the joy of watching the Welsh wizard back in 2013 as he produced some of the finest football in the history of the competition. We’ll all be hoping for more of the same from Bale and I’ve had a look into his recent data in the shots on target market which I think might be the best way into betting around this player.
Even though Gareth Bale was never going to play against Manchester United last weekend, Betfair and Paddy Power both had priced the 31-year-old at 5/6 to land one or more shots on target and 9/2 to for two or more on target. This is a good indication for what kind of prices we will see in this market for Gareth, and I have to say at those prices, I’m interested.
It was well documented how turbulent last season was for the Welshman, but in his 12 starts in La Liga he registered one or more shots on target in seven games (58%). Two or more shots on target also landed on four of those occasions (33%).
Premier League pedigree is a quality that Gareth Bale has already proved and if he can put his troubles at Madrid behind him, he can have a huge impact for Spurs. There’s also a chance Bale could be on free-kick duty for Jose Mourinho’s side which would add an extra edge when betting on Bale in the shots betting markets. If we see similar prices to those we did against Manchester United I’d be under the impression that Bale could be heavily overpriced and backable.
Rhian Brewster - Shots on Target
Sheffield United’s marquee signing for the summer has been that of Rhian Brewster from Liverpool. The youngster has come at the price of £23 million and many Blades fans will be hoping he can become their main talisman in the final third of the pitch.
Brewster spent the second half of last season on loan at Championship side Swansea where he scored 11 goals. Again it’s the shots markets where I have been looking at Brewster’s data and he managed one or more shots on target in 17 of his 21 starts for Swansea (81%). Two or more shots on target also landed on seven of those 21 occasions (33%) and the 20-year-old may be worth some consideration in this market.
Alex Telles - To be carded / Shots on Target
Another bit of business Manchester United managed to complete towards the latter stages of the transfer window was the signing of Alex Telles from Porto. The 27-year-old predominantly plays as a left-back and one of his biggest strengths is his crossing ability and set-piece taking.
Telles could be a threat in front of goal for Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side after he managed to find the net no less than 11 occasions in the League for Porto last season, however five of those came from penalties. I doubt he will be on duty from 12 yards for United but having a look at his shots on target stats from last season, excluding penalties, we can see: Telles registered one or more shots on target on 15 of his 28 starts in the league (53%)
With those kind of numbers you would be expecting to see Telles at around even money in the betting markets to land one shot on target and I really feel we may get a much bigger price come his debut. Another area I would be considering Telles in, is the to be carded market.
The 2019/20 season was the most productive of his career so far for Alex Telles in terms of yellow cards, with the Brazilian picking up seven in 31 games. With the physicality of the Premier League being a little more than over in Portugal I’d say that figure of seven does have potential to rise at Manchester United. I’d be considering anything over the 11/2 mark when looking at Telles in the ‘to be carded’ betting markets.