Premier League Betting: King Kane shouldn't be overlooked for Player of the Year

After Harry Kane converted a second half penalty against Aston Villa on Sunday evening, the England captain is now the favourite with most bookmakers to win this season’s Premier League top scorer award.

Kane is now level with Mohamed Salah on 17 league goals this campaign and bet365 go 13/8, an implied probability of 38%, that he will scoop this season’s prize. The 27-year-old has been the stand out performer at Spurs this term and we’re asking if he deserves to win the PFA Player of the Year award, for which he is 5/1 to do so.

King Kane looking good for a third Top Scorer award

So let’s take a look at some of Kane’s numbers this season. In a campaign where the Tottenham striker is supposedly having a deeper, more creative role, Kane is still averaging more shots per game than any other player in the league. We’ve included players to have featured at least ten times this season.

Most shots per game in the Premier League this season

• Harry Kane: 3.77
• Kevin De Bruyne: 3.3
• Patrick Bamford: 3.18
• Mohamed Salah: 3.11
• Bruno Fernandes: 3.10

It’s not just straight up attempts that Kane leads the way in. There’s plenty of punters who have dipped their toe in the shots on target market this season, and when we look at SoT per game, Harry once again tops the table. 

Most shots on target per game in the Premier League this season.

• Harry Kane: 1.42
• Mohamed Salah: 1.36
• Dominic Calvert-Lewin: 1.36
• Bruno Fernandes: 1.34
• Patrick Bamford: 1.32

Kane has twice won the Premier League Golden Boot, which came back in 2016 and 2017, and after going level with Mohamed Salah, we fancy him to go on and claim his third crown in the coming months.

Premier League Top Scorers 

• Harry Kane: 17
• Mohamed Salah: 17
• Bruno Fernandes: 16
• Dominic Calvert-Lewin: 14
• Patrick Bamford: 14

Creativity

Theirry Henry and Kevin De Bruyne both currently hold the record for the most assists in a Premier League season with 20 and it doesn’t look like that tally will be surpassed this time around. However, Kane’s total of 13 assists deserves a huge amount of praise! 

That’s the most of any player in the league this term and after managing just two in the prior campaign, the improvement is clear to see.

Most Assists in the Premier League this season

• Harry Kane: 13
• Kevin De Bruyne: 11
• Bruno Fernandes: 10
• Jack Grealish: 10
• Son Heung-min: 9

PFA Player of the year

So having a look at the current odds for the PFA Player of the Year and Bruno Fernandes is the current favourite at the odds-on price of 10/11. Manchester City central defender Ruben Dias can be backed at 10/3 with Kane currently the third favourite in the betting.

If looking to take on the favourite in this market, surely Kane looks the obvious selection. A player who is making a serious charge to be the all time top scorer in the Premier League who has developed his game to become one of the most dynamic and reliable forwards in world football. He also hold a higher average rating than any other player in the division this season according to WhoScored.com's ratings. 

“By being with me, I can help you explode” was what Jose Mourinho told Kane when he arrived at the club and looking at his figures this term, it’s hard to argue that the Portuguese manager has not had a huge impact on his frontman’s game. At 5/1, and with only the Premier League to focus on for the remainder of the campaign, I think we will see some strong performances to close out the season. If he does finish with the most assists and most goals scored this season I think that 5/1 will shorten considerably and it could be worth getting him onside over this international break. 

The Danger

Bruno Fernandes has had a monumental impact at Manchester United since arriving at the club in January 2020. Since then, United are unbeaten away from home in the Premier League and this term Bruno has 16 goals and 10 assists to his name, impressive whichever way you look at it.

Having looked at those prices, I can’t help but feel he is a little short in the betting, priced at odds-on to scoop the PFA Player of the year in his first full campaign in Manchester. Another thing to remember with this award, is that it’s voted for by the players. I also think this could put Bruno at a little bit of a disadvantage considering the petulance he has shown at times this season.

United also look to be nailed on to finish inside the top-four this term, priced at 1/20 to do so. With the Europa League still on the cards for Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s men, Bruno will face a much busier schedule than Kane and fatigue could become even more of a factor over these final few weeks.

We saw what happened when the Manchester United manager left his star man out of his starting line up in the FA Cup at the weekend and I doubt he will be making the same mistake again in the Europa League. Kane’s freshness going into Premier League matches could well give him an edge in order to outperform Fernandes in this final quarter of the season.

Next Club

After last week’s humiliating Europa League defeat, which goalkeeper Hugo Lloris labelled a ‘disgrace’, there has been renewed talk about a potential move for Harry Kane in the summer. As we all know, Spurs chairman Daniel Levy is a very shrewd man and reports have said that he will want £120m for his talisman and would also be reluctant to sell to a Premier League rival.

With Kane not getting any younger, the time is running out on him to make a move to a club where he could potentially challenge for titles and claim the silverware his talent deserves. The hefty price tag does put many out of the race and with Levy disinclined to sell to another Premier League team, the value could be from the continent. Sky Bet are one of the only firms to have this priced up at the moment, and it’s Manchester City who are the favourites to capture the signature of one of the Premier League’s greatest ever forwards. However, looking at a club overseas - the likes of Madrid and Barcelona - could be where the real value lies if Levy will not sell to a rival English team.

• Manchester City: 3/1
• Manchester United: 10/1
• Real Madrid: 14/1
• PSG: 16/1
• Barcelona: 18/1
• Juventus: 20/1