Paris Saint-Germain v Bayern Munich Tips: Impetus on Muller to find the net with no Lewandowski
European giants Bayern Munich travel to Paris in their attempt to overturn a 3-2 deficit suffered in the first leg of the Champions League Quarter-Final.
The second leg is shown live on BT Sport and the tie is set up to be another classic. The away side are favourites on the night but have a tough job ahead of them if they are to progress. PSG’s 3 away goals in the first leg puts them in pole position to qualify, they are as short as 4/11 to reach the Semi-Final.
Munich are still set to be without talisman Robert Lewandowski, but also face fresh injury concerns to Niklas Sule and Leon Goretzka after both suffered knocks in the first leg that will most likely keep them absent Tuesday night, but Munich are hopeful on the latter.
Pochettino also has a heavy injury list. Keylor Navas is a doubt after picking up a knock on the weekend and they will also be without club captain Marquinhos. The Brazilian was subbed off in the first leg minutes after doubling PSG’s lead, with what looks like a muscular issue.
Potential PSG starting line-up:
Rico, Dagba, Pereria, Kimpembe, Diallo, Gueye, Paredes, Di Maria, Neymar, Draxler, Mbappe.
Potential Bayern starting line-up:
Neuer, Pavard, Boateng, Alaba, Davies, Martinez, Kimmich, Sane, Muller, Coman, Choupo-Moting.
This bet is essentially Bayern Munich to have 4 or more corners than PSG and with how the tie is poised I think this is a great way in. Munich need to score a minimum of 2 goals on the night so the impetus is with them from the get-go.
If the first leg is any comparison for the second then we have a right bet on our hands. The French side were happy to soak up all the pressure from Bayern and play on the counter, never a bad idea with the likes of Neymar and Mbappe leading the line and I think we will see the same again. Munich huffed and puffed in the first leg and the constant wave of attacks meant they managed a staggering total of 31 shots and 15 corners.
This bet cruised home in the first leg and with Bayern hitting 15 corners to PSG’s 1 I am confident in making this our main play. I think we will see a lot of similarities from the first leg in the way the game pans out, but as long as Munich don't race into a heavy early lead, I give this bet every chance of landing at a decent price of 17/20 on William Hill.
As this is a second leg with Daniel Orsato at the whistle the card prices are understandably short, but one player that does stand out to me is Bayern Munich defender Jerome Boateng. Bet365 have him priced at 13/5 for a booking, and I think he’d do well to avoid one so this price appeals.
The ageing German defender had a horrid time in the first leg after coming on for the injured Sule. The constant pace of Mbappe on the break caused him all sorts of problems and he eventually found himself in the book.
The high defensive line Munich play does tend to see players cautioned, even more so when they face an effective counter attacking team. The 32-year-old does not have the pace that he used to so I can definitely see this as an area to exploit for Pochettino's men.
The 13/5 implies a 28% chance of winning but most bookies see this as a 6/4 shot, so a nice price here with bet365.
I can’t see this game being low scoring, especially after seeing the defensive frailties of both sides in the first leg. With that being said, it’s difficult not to include Muller and Mbappe to notch as part of the longshot. Muller will be relied on that bit more in the absence of Lewandowski and scored in the first leg. As for Mbappe, he has 8 goals in 8 Champions League games this term and bagged two at the Allianz.
For the cards I've gone for Paredes and Kimmich in a game I expect Orsato to dish them out. Paredes has 4 cards in his last 6 starts but this isn’t unusual for him. With 9 cards to his name this season in limited appearances the occasion can easily get to his head.
He's been booked in 60% of his Champions League games this season so I fancy him for another. Kimmich should be the man to limit Neymar's output on the game. The Brazilian is by far the most fouled player in Europe this season, drawing a whopping 4.7 fouls per game. Combine these with the anytime goal-scorers and you get a chunky 43/1 poke with Betfair, which I'm happy to nibble at with spare change for some added interest.
As always if you follow these tips, only bet what you can afford to lose and please gamble responsibly
