Olympiacos vs Fiorentina Prediction and Betting Tips: Two Data Driven Tips for Conference League Final

The third Europa Conference League final sees Olympiacos and Fiorentina lock horns. Roma and West Ham are the only sides to have held this trophy aloft thus far. Vincenzo Italiano’s men were beaten in last season’s final but are the favourites this time around.

Jose Luis Mendilibar has no injury concerns ahead of this showdown. He has experience in Europe and will be hoping to lift his second continental trophy as a manager. The Spaniard will be hoping his team can put in the sort of display that saw them coast past Aston Villa in the last round.

Vincenzo Italiano is known for tinkering with his team selections so it’s hard to predict who will start this one. He rested the likes of Nicolas Gonzalez, Christian Kouame and Arthur at the weekend so they will be raring to go on Wednesday night.

The Bet365 throw-ins line looks a little high for this one so we are betting under 45.5 throws in the match for our first angle in the main bet builder.

Olympiacos matches in Europe this season have seen an average of 41.47 throws per game. Throw numbers have generally decreased this season in comparison to last season as more teams look to adopt a patient approach to attack so going low seems the way to go here. There were 33 and 34 throws in their semi-final clashes with Aston Villa.

Unlike Olympiacos, Fiorentina have played in the Europa Conference League since the start of the campaign. Their matches in the competition have seen an average of 42.31 throws per game. That is slightly above the tournament average of 40.47 throws per game but well below the 45.5 mark we need to fall short of here. There were 39 and 37 throws in their semi-final games against Club Brugge.

Finals can often play out in a frantic manner but Fiorentina played in this fixture last season. There were 40 throws as the Italian side succumbed to defeat thanks to a late goal from Jarrod Bowen.

Our other betting angle in this market is over 24.5 free kicks in the match. This bet landed with ease in last season’s final. 

Olympiacos matches in this competition have seen an average of 23.13 fouls per game. That’s just below the free kick count we need here but this market also includes free kicks awarded for offside infringements. There has been an average of 3.75 offsides across their eight matches in the Europa Conference League.

They take on a Fiorentina side whose matches in Europe this season have seen an average of 26.75 fouls. The average number of fouls per game in this competition is 23.96. Those same matches have seen an average of 3.07 fouls which takes the tally well above what is required here.  There were 25 free kicks or more in both of their matches against Club Brugge in the last round.

We are backing the same markets as the main bet for our longer odds bet but with more difficult lines. Both of these bets landed in the final of this competition last season.

There were 40 free kicks as Fiorentina lost the last final. There were also 40 throws  so let’s hope we see the same numbers once again.