Nottingham Forest vs Man City Prediction, Lineups and Odds: Two bets at the City Ground

Saturday’s early kick-off comes from the City Ground as Nottingham Forest host Manchester City in a crunch game for European qualification. 

Matthew O’Regan has previewed the match and pinpointed his best bets below.

The story of the season has undoubtedly been Nottingham Forest’s performance. The Reds sit third in the Premier League and are in the quarter-finals of the FA Cup after a penalty shootout triumph over Ipswich on Monday. Nuno Espirito Santo has built a tight-knit group that is far exceeding expectations due to their hard work and togetherness.

Just one win in five in the league has seen the chasing pack close the gap, but Forest are still well-placed for some form of European football. Their recent form has been inconsistent, following up a 5-0 defeat at Bournemouth by dismantling Brighton 7-0. This was followed by 2-1 and 4-3 away defeats at Fulham and Newcastle respectively before a 0-0 draw at home to Arsenal restored some clarity.

Defensively, only Arsenal, Liverpool and Bournemouth have conceded less than Espirito Santo’s side, conceding just ten goals at home - the joint fewest in the league. When the sides met at the Etihad in December, the hosts ran out comfortable 3-0 winners, with Forest scoring just once in the last five meetings between the sides.

Reigning four-time Premier League champions are on the brink of losing their crown to Liverpool after an extremely disappointing season that has seen them battling for the top four and knocked out of the Champions League already. Pep Guardiola’s side have felt the absence of Balon D’or winner Rodri, with the City midfield waning without his physicality.

A strong January window that saw defenders Vitor Reis and Abdukodir Khusanov and midfielder Nico Gonzalez join has plugged some holes in the team, but February still saw a 5-1 loss at Arsenal a 6-3 aggregate loss to Real Madrid in the Champions League and a feeble performance in losing 0-2 at home to champions in waiting Liverpool.

City’s away form is the main worry, with Pep’s side picking up just 21 points on their travels, conceding 20 goals in the process. At a packed-out City Ground, City could be up against it once more.

Officiating this affair is Christopher Kavanagh, fresh off of showing ten yellows and a red in 120 minutes of Bournemouth’s FA Cup clash with Wolves. In the game before this, he brandished 12 yellows and one red in an ill-tempered affair between Ajax and Union Saint Gilloise in the Europa League. The 39-year-old is averaging 6.34 cards per game, only failing to show at least four cards once in his last six games – Brighton’s comfortable 3-0 win over Chelsea.

At home, Nottingham Forest league games average 4.15 cards, with at least four shown in 9/13 games. Manchester City away games in the league average 3.92 cards, with at least four shown in 6/14. While the visitors total is low, the magnitude of the game coupled with Kavanagh’s tendency to flash his cards, should see more cards than normal for City.

Elliot Anderson was sold by Newcastle in the summer to ease PSR fears – a decision they look to be ruing. The Scotsman has excelled at the heart of the Nottingham Forest midfield and has been a real stand-out. He is averaging 1.44 fouls per 90 in the league, making at least one foul in 17/22 starts.

Nico Gonzalez was signed in January to fill the huge void left by Rodri. The Spaniard has made two and one fouls in his two away games since coming to England. At Porto, he averaged 2.24 fouls per 90 in the league – an average that rose to 2.40 in the Europa League. Elliot Anderson (2.09 fouls drawn p90), Ryan Yates (2.45 drawn p90) and Morgan Gibbs-White (1.41 drawn p90) will be his direct opponents, with opposition central midfielders often racking up fouls against Nottingham Forest.

At home, Forest have been strong and like to play on the front foot. They have averaged 4.77 shots on target per 90 at the City Ground, having at least two shots on target in 12/13. Manchester City’s away day troubles have been well documented. They average 4.57 shots on target against per 90, conceding at least two shots on target in all 14 away games.

Nottingham Forest vs Man City Lineups

The starting lineups for Nottingham Forest vs Man City will be displayed in the graphic below once the team news has been announced.

Nottingham Forest vs Man City Team News

On the injury front, sub-goalkeeper Carlos Miguel is the only absentee for the hosts, while the visitors will be without Rodri, John Stones, Manuel Akanji, Nathan Ake and Oscar Bobb.