Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa Prediction, Odds and Lineups: Back this 22/1 double tonight

Nottingham Forest face Aston Villa at the City Ground in tonight's Premier League televised showing, live on Sky Sports at 5.30pm.

This is perhaps one of the trickier fixtures to predict. Nuno Espírito Santo’s side are fifth and Unai Emery’s men are sixth, with both clubs on 25 points after 15 matches.

Continue reading for Tom Winch's preview and top betting picks, including an eye-catching 22/1 cards and goalscorer double.

It’s always interesting to look further into the statistics as you can gauge how teams are performing. Forest are ranked 10th on xPTS, whereas Villa’s expected position is 4th. According to the data, there should be a five-point gap between the sides. Of course, the numbers only say so much. Each side will be happy with their start to the campaign, especially the hosts.

I’m finding it tough to find any real value in the main market. The Asian Line is 0.0, essentially ‘draw no bet’. Forest ranks as the 3rd best for xGA, with Villa slightly behind them in 4th. The hosts have had a week to prepare for this encounter and will have a game plan that they’ll aim to execute. Emery’s side beat Leipzig in Germany on Tuesday night, an impressive result. Villa have a 1-2-2 (WDL) in the Premier League after Champions League action.

I’m looking for my opening selection in the player prop market. Let’s start with Elliot Anderson who has impressed in recent weeks. Anderson will be busy in the middle of the park on Saturday evening. Youri Tielemans (2.00), Boubacar Kamara (2.11) and John McGinn (3.02) are the likeliest midfield trio for the visitors. As you can see by their fouls won per 90 in the Premier League this season, the numbers are high.

Anderson himself isn’t afraid to get stuck in. He’s averaging 1.86 fouls per 90 this term and has committed at least one in eight of 10 starts for his new club. Backing the newcomer to commit a foul is a good angle to consider.

It’s unconfirmed if Jhon Duran will start this game. I think it’s right for him to lead the line here. The Colombian has been an excellent tool off the bench for Emery. It feels like he scores a worldie every week. Duran is averaging 2.44 shots on target per 90 in the league. His only start came last weekend against Southampton where he registered two SOT and scored the only goal of the game.

It’ll be rude not to go further with the two aforementioned players. The numbers are well in our favour. Backing Elliot to receive a booking and Duran to find the back of the net is a massive price.

Anderson has picked up three bookings this term. Interestingly, all three have arrived at the City Ground. He’s aggressive and is willing to take one for the team. No player has received more yellow cards here than the Scottish international.

There’s little more to say about Duran’s scoring ability. He’s averaging 1.11 goals per 90 in the Premier League this season. Only Harry Wilson boasts a better record, although the Welshman has played considerably less. Villa’s number nine scored seven minutes after coming on in Germany. There are few players in better form right now. A tightly contested affair is likely. If there’s one man to produce a moment of magic, it’s Jhon Duran.

Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa Lineups

Nottingham Forest's Alex Moreno won't be able to feature as he is on loan from Aston Villa.

Jacob Ramsey remains out for the visitors, with Unai Emery set to decide between Ollie Watkins and Jhon Duran in arrack.

The starting lineups for Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa are displayed in the graphic below.

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