Norwich Relegation Odds: Can Dean Smith keep Norwich in the Premier League?

Dean Smith has been officially confirmed as the new manager of Norwich City, just eight days after being sacked by Aston Villa. 

The 50-year-old, who has penned a two-and-a-half year deal with the Canaries, will take charge of the club’s upcoming game against Southampton on Saturday - 13 days after facing Ralph Hasenhuttl’s side in what was to be his final game as Villa boss. 

“It has been a whirlwind seven days but I’m really pleased to be back and working for Norwich City in the Premier League,” Smith said. 

“Clearly, there has been some wonderful work that has gone into this football club over the last four-and-a-half years. It is now the job of myself and Craig [Shakespeare] to continue and improve on that work with the ultimate aim of surviving in the Premier League.”

With Norwich sat rock-bottom of the Premier League, Smith will be tasked with immediately turning the ship around and keeping the Carrow Road outfit in the top-flight for next season.

After a disastrous start, which saw Norwich lose their opening six matches, they picked up two goalless draws against Burnley and Brighton in October, before being hammered 7-0 by Chelsea and falling to a 2-1 defeat at home to fellow strugglers Leeds at the end of last month. 

The Norfolk club’s first win of the campaign came just before the international break - a 2-1 victory away at Brentford - which, somewhat ironically, was Daniel Farke’s last game in charge before the German received his marching orders. 

That much-needed win has seen the Canaries move to within just five points from safety, however - a deficit that Smith will view as achievable to overturn throughout the remainder of the season.

With the January transfer window approaching, the ex-Villa boss will be able to draft in some reinforcements, perhaps cherry picking some of the players from his former club who are struggling for game-time in the West Midlands. 

Indeed, the challenge is a sizable one, and should he fail to hit the ground running and Norwich fall even further behind the rest of the pack, relegation could soon become a foregone conclusion, just as it seemed before last Saturday’s win in west London. 

There is cause for optimism, though, as Smith brings with him a wealth of experience and a record that includes avoiding the drop in 2019-20, when Villa looked destined for relegation for the most part of the campaign but ended up finishing 17th.

Last season, his Villa side boasted the joint-seventh strongest defensive record in the Premier League by shipping just 46 goals.

And, while his previous club have so far struggled to display that same level of form this time out, there is no doubt that Smith is a defensively astute coach, one who can potentially shore things up at the back at Carrow Road - something desperately needed given the fact Norwich have conceded 26 goals in only 11 games this term.

The following period of fixtures in the build up to Christmas will be imperative to Norwich’s chances of staying up.

From now until the end of the year, the club’s busy schedule includes games against Southampton, Wolves, Newcastle, Aston Villa and Crystal Palace - all fixtures Smith will deem as winnable should his new team put in a string of strong performances. 

A couple of wins partnered with a sprinkling of draws would see Norwich enter the new year in a much stronger position to avoid relegation, and could even see them escape the unforgiving clutches of the bottom-three depending on how well their main rivals for the drop fare within that period. 

It goes without saying, though, that consistent defeat will see the club’s odds for the drop - currently at 1/8 - shorten even more.

The Canaries’ odds for survival currently stand at 9/2 with BetVictor, which could possibly offer a bit of value at this stage given they are only five points from safety and have employed a really talented manager, who will have more than a point to prove to a certain relegation rival..