Newcastle vs Southampton Prediction and Betting Tips: Goals on the menu at St James' Park
Posted: 15:47 Friday 16th August 2024
Newcastle host Southampton at St James' Park on Saturday 17th August with the game one of four 3pm kick-offs taking place in the Premier League.
Read on for our best bets, including a 20/1 Bet Builder featuring two in-form strikers and a yellow card-merchant.
Newcastle vs Southampton Predictions
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After keeping hold of England-linked Eddie Howe, Newcastle will be tasked with mounting a sustained top-four challenge this season after finishing 7th last term.
Up first is one of the Premier League's promoted, yet very familiar, sides in Southampton who held their nerve to edge past Leeds in the play-offs to book their top-flight return at the first attempt.
Newcastle, as you might expect, are heavily favoured at 1/3 by the bookmakers in the Newcastle vs Southampton match market, Southampton can be backed at 8/1 to spring a surprise, with a draw priced at 9/2.
Newcastle To Win and BTTS
At 1/3, Newcastle are a very short price to claim an opening weekend win. Nevertheless, I see value in betting on the hosts to win with both teams scoring at 6/4, which is best priced at bet365.
To begin with, the head-to-head statistics reveal a lopsided recent rivalry: Newcastle have triumphed in each of the last five encounters between the teams and have won nine out of the last 11. However, it is worth noting that Southampton have managed to score in seven of those nine losses.
I anticipate a similar scenario on Saturday, with Newcastle spearheaded by Golden Boot contender Alexander Isak, who is part of a dynamic front three which is also likely to include Anthony Gordon and Harvey Barnes. The trio will be licking their lips at the prospect of facing a side that shipped a whopping 63 goals in the Championship last season.
Still, Southampton also displayed impressive attacking prowess, netting 87 goals, with 24 of those scored by the revitalised Geordie Adam Armstrong, who will be joined in attack by summer signing Ben Brereton Díaz, who netted a very respectable six goals in 14 games on-loan at Sheffield United last season.
Southampton's promotion-winning manager Russell Martin has already expressed his commitment to maintaining a high-risk, possession-based style of play; an approach which provides quite the spectacle at both ends of the pitch.
Isak To Score, Adam Armstrong Over 1.5 Shots On Target, Jan Bednarek To Be Booked
The aforementioned Alexander Isak and Adam Armstrong both feature in a 20/1 priced Bet Builder, available with bet365.
Starting with Isak, only Erling Haaland (27) and Cole Palmer (22) accumulated more Premier League goals than the Toon forward last season, who himself bagged 21 = a goal every 108 minutes.
The Swede has scored 10 goals in his last eight matches at St James' Park, including braces against Sheff Utd, Tottenham, and West Ham, and is 4/5 to continue this impressive goalscoring form against Southampton.
The Saints' own sharpshooter Armstrong only scored four goals across two Premier League seasons but bounced back in impressive style with his haul of 24 goals catapulting the south coast side back into the big time. He's no stranger to trying his luck from any angle, highlighted in raining in 152 shots last season, 68 of which were on target.
With that said, I think the Saints forward represents decent value at 7/2 to have two or more shots on target against a Newcastle side that looked uncharacteristically fragile at the back for large parts of the 2023/24 campaign; conceding two goals or more in 12 of their 20 league games since Christmas.
Joining this duo in the Bet Builder is Southampton centre-back Jan Bednarek who is priced at 13/8 to be carded on Saturday. The centre-back picked up a sizeable 13 yellows last season and has five yellows in his last 12 Premier League games, one of which came in the 3-1 defeat away to Newcastle last year.
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