Newcastle v Liverpool Tips: Sade to be the Mane man at St James's
We're at St James's Park for Wednesday night's Premier League clash between Newcastle and Liverpool in what could be a long cold night for the home side.
Without a win in their last three games and just six points clear of the relegation zone at the time of writing, Newcastle are struggling at the moment and whilst it's never a good time to play the champions, they could face a wounded animal after dropping points at home to West Brom on Sunday.
The bookies make Liverpool 2/9 favourites which translates as a 79% win probability for the away side. As you'd expect, the betting is very much favouring Jurgen Klopp's side so I've tried to eek out some value the best I can with three bets.
I looked at the Liverpool shots market but it was even money to have 18+ shots, which is pretty short given they're averaging 15.6 shots per game in the Premier League this season and only managed 17 on Sunday when they were banging away at West Brom.
I also looked at Liverpool to score a penalty, given their attacking talent Liverpool have had five pens this season, Leicester only having more. The price for Liverpool to score a penalty is 5/2 which I'd look at potentially swapping in for the Mane bet if he doesn't start on Wednesday night.
- Liverpool will be hell bent on bouncing back from Sunday's draw against West Brom and can clock up the goals against a struggling Newcastle.
First up I like the look of Liverpool to win here convincingly.
Last time they dropped points drawing away with Fulham 1-1 they bounced straight back a few days later beating Spurs 2-1 and whilst the scoreline suggests it was a close game, Jurgen Klopp's side were really on it that night and played really well.
I'm expecting a similar response here and by taking Liverpool to win and over 3.5 goals I'm eeking out a bit more value at 17/10 with Paddy Power.
Liverpool embarrassed Crystal Palace 7-0 just a couple of weeks ago converting half their total shots into goals that day.
Add in their liability to concede, especially with Joel Matip picking up an injury at the weekend I think that helps our cause if Newcastle can nick a goal as Liverpool can surely outscore them.
I don't look too much at H2H's but not only have Liverpool have won their last five meetings against Newcastle, despite conceding in each of their last six at St James's.
If you wanted some insurance, you could take a small bet on the Newcastle keeper to be the Whoscored Man of the Match at 8/1.
- Mane is averaging over three shots per game this season and two shots on target over the last six games with the price boosted from 5/2 to 10/3 with Betfair.
Next up, I'm always looking to play Sadio Mane in the shots market given he's always a bigger price than Salah in the betting.
The Senegal striker scored in the 1-1 draw with West Brom and had three total shots in the game. Mane's averaged 4.5 shots per game in his last four outings and two shots on target per game in that period.
At 11/10 to get 2+ shots on target, his strike partner Mo Salah is 1/3, so you can see the difference in value.
I actually like him to go one better here at 7/2 for 3+ shots on target but noticed the price boost on Betfair from 5/2 to 10/3 for Mane to get 1+ shot on target in each-half which is what I'm going for here.
If Mane doesn't start, I'd encourage you to take that Liverpool to score a penalty angle if you're keen to have a bet on the game at around the same price.
- Firmino is averaging over three shots per game in the last six matches whilst Wilson continues to be Newcastle's main goal threat. Shelvey is averaging a foul a game and up against his former side.
Last up I've got a winter warmer 33/1 same game multi for you.
If the likes of Salah and Mane are too short for you in the shots markets, Roberto Firmino is a good alternative if he starts.
The Brazilian was under pressure for his place in the team a few months ago but an upturn in form plus the injury to Diego Jota has seen Firmino be a good option in the shots markets.
With three goals in his last three appearances for the Reds, Firmino is averaging 3.25 shots per game and two shots on target in his last four appearances for Liverpool and the 11/5 about 2+ shots here reeks of value.
I've not talked much about Newcastle as an attacking threat but I'm always interested in taking a bit of Callum Wilson to get 1+ shots on target when he's around the evens mark.
Wilson continues to be Newcastle's main attacking threat, especially with Maxim sidelined and on penalty duty. Wilson averages two shots per game for the Toon this season and at 5/6 I think he's a good play in any same game multi.
I also like Wilson to be booked in the game at a massive 6/1. The striker averages 1.7 fouls per game which is a club high and this is exactly the kind of game where he can get frustrated up front isolated and leave a foot in. He's been booked twice this season and picked up 10 last season for Bournemouth. If any of the other players put up in this preview don't start on Wednesday I'd encourage a small play on this bet at 6/1.
Back to this same game multi and I have another Newcastle player to be booked at 16/5 in the shape of Jonjo Shelvey.
Averaging 1.4 fouls per game and two yellow cards to his name this season, Shelvey is another who could get frustrated at the lack of time on the ball on Wednesday. Add in the 'revenge-game' narrative as a former Red and Paul Tierney the man in the middle who has dished out 4.11 yellows per game this season and three red cards, I like the booking angle.
This bet returns 33/1 with Paddy Power, good luck if you're following and as always please gamble responsibly.
