Newcastle vs. Man Utd Betting Tips: Two data driven picks from St James' Park

Newcastle host Manchester United a little over a month after they were beaten by Erik ten Hag’s side in the league cup final. The Geordies will be out for revenge and it looks set to be a cracker. Scott Thornton has provided us with two selections from St James' Park that he thinks represent value in the betting markets. 

Eddie Howe’s side have been formidable this season, especially when they are playing in front of a home crowd. Newcastle will have been disappointed with their performance in the final as they looked to end their long trophy drought but this weekend’s clash is the perfect opportunity to get their own back.

Manchester United have already played 23 matches in 2023 and they could play many more should they go all the way in the cup competitions. United are chasing the FA Cup and the Europa League. Their league form could suffer if tiredness becomes an issue and the Magpies need to be ready to pounce on that spot in the top four.

Miguel Almiron is absent for the home side. He has been a key player this season for Eddie Howe. Casemiro is a big miss for the visitors after he received a red card in United’s last league match. There are rumours that Christian Eriksen could return to the side although he is unlikely to start.

The earlier league meeting between the sides surprisingly saw more fouls than the cup final encounter. Newcastle were out of sorts at Wembley and they rarely laid a glove on Manchester United as The Reds coasted through the game after the first goal. The future looks bright for Newcastle, and Eddie Howe will be keen to ensure they are there to compete on Sunday. I expect the Geordies to fly into the tackles and make it a long afternoon for the visitors.

Newcastle’s matches at St. James’s Park this season are averaging 22.69 fouls per game. This is above the required mark for our bet but we also have the benefit of offsides. Newcastle’s home matches are averaging 3.08 offsides per game. There were five offsides in the League Cup final. Four of the last five matches between these sides have seen the required amount of free kicks for this bet to land.

Manchester United’s last 10 league matches are averaging over 40 tackles per game. Ten Hag’s side have been involved in several scrappy affairs and I expect Sunday to be no different. Newcastle’s home matches this season are averaging just under 35 tackles.

Both of these angles look solid and the bet has landed in the two meetings between the sides this season.

We are sticking with the same angles as the main bet for our long shot but increasing the bet lines. This 6.50 bet landed at Wembley in February and the fact that this one isn’t being played at a neutral venue should help us out.

The average amount of tackles in Manchester United’s matches is well above what is required here. I also think the home crowd will be baying for blood after the cup final disappointment.