Newcastle vs. Brighton Betting Tips: Goals on the menu at St James' Park

Newcastle take on Brighton in the Premier League on Thursday evening. The game is live on Sky Sports and we have James Cantrill on hand to provide us with his best bets for the game from St James' Park. 

Following the 5-1 thumping at home to Everton, Roberto De Zerbi insisted everyone would see the ‘true Brighton’ in their next game at the Emirates. 

He wasn’t lying. The Seagulls romped to a three goal victory, shattering Arsenal’s title hopes, and making it four wins in as many games, scoring 15 and keeping three clean sheets in the process. 

It only cemented the theory that Thursday’s visitors play better against the Premier League’s best sides. Taking points from the well off teams and giving them to the poor, like an autistic Robin Hood. 

This bodes well for their next fixture on the roster: Newcastle. 

The Magpies lead the Champions League chasing pack. Manchester United may be a shorter price to finish in the top four, but Newcastle sit ahead of them on goal difference, and have a 77.8% chance of returning to Europe’s premier competition. 

That said, Eddie Howe’s side's form has faltered recently, drawing at Elland Road in their last game and losing at home to the Gunners in the match before. 

The latter was only their second domestic defeat in Tyneside this season, the other against Liverpool in the game Nick Pope was sent off in.

The game is priced aptly, which is always annoying. I wanted to back the visitors to get a result but there just is not enough juice. 

Victories at Anfield, Stamford Bridge and the Emirates almost trumped Newcastle’s imperious home form, but 5/2 just is not big enough of a price to overlook it. 

I think goals are promised though. In the league, De Zerbi’s reign has seen an average of 3.4 per game with over 2.5 goals and both teams to score in 53.6%. 

Crucially, the Seagulls have found the net in 24 of those 28 games and racked up an xG of 8.14 in the four games they didn’t manage to score in. 

Newcastle have been fairly rampant recently. 

They put five past West Ham at the start of April, and have since hit Spurs for six, put four past Everton, three past Southampton and hit the double in Leeds. 

At St James’ Park, in the top flight, Howe’s side have only failed to score in four games as well. 

In a game that promises goals, it makes sense to delve into the goalscorer market, and I was keen to dip into the left field, literally and metaphorically. 

Pervis Estupinan broke his domestic duck in North London last weekend, setting up another in a Man of the Match performance. 

This took his tally to six assists for the campaign, meaning his G+A p90 average is 0.23.

I have noticed a change in him recently. I don't know if his role has altered due to Billy Gilmour’s inclusion and Moises Caicedo switch to right back but his offensive output has increased. 

Over his last six league games, he has scored one, assisted two, missed three ‘big chances’ and racked up 10 shots. 

The 5/1 about a goal or assist represented value based on his seasonal average, but certainly appeals given his recent form.