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Premier League Betting: Name the top four market

After their 5-0 victory against Sheffield United Leicester are on 56 points, but will memories of last season come back to haunt their hopes of a top-four finish this time round?
After their 5-0 victory against Sheffield United Leicester are on 56 points, but will memories of last season come back to haunt their hopes of a top-four finish this time round?

The title race may be as good as over with Manchester City currently holding a 14 point lead at the top of the Premier League, but the race for the Champions League places is hotting up as we head into the final quarter of the campaign.

Manchester United’s win over West Ham on Sunday evening has seen them cut to 1/20 with several bookmakers to finish inside the top-four this season. And with both Chelsea (1/3) and Leicester City (4/11) being offered at odds-on prices to also finish inside the top-four, we’ve taken a look at a market with Paddy Power where punters can select the exact four teams in these places.

Name The Top Four

Odds correct as of 2021-03-15 15:00 - Odds subject to change
Odds correct as of 2021-03-15 15:00 - Odds subject to change

The selection at the head of the market is Manchester City, Manchester United, Leicester and Chelsea. At 10/11, this implies a 52% implied chance that these four teams will still be there come the end of the season.

Manchester City have blown away the competition and will definitely be one of those four sides heading into Europe’s most prestigious club tournament next season, but with four teams within eight points of fourth place there’s still the possibility of several making a late charge.

Manchester United - (Currently 2nd, 57 Points)

Clear progress has been made at Manchester United under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer this season and changes off the field bring hope that the club can continue their recent upward trajectory next term. After the 1-0 win against West Ham on Sunday, the Red Devils now have 57 points and they should comfortably make the top-four this term. Their form away from Old Trafford has been remarkable over the last year, with January 2020 being the last time they tasted defeat on the road. Bruno Fernandes has been the stand out performer in the league this season and with fixtures remaining they look set to head back into the 2021-22 Champions League. 

Remaining fixtures

(h) Brighton

(a) Tottenham

(h) Burnley

(a) Leeds

(h) Liverpool

(a) Aston Villa

(h) Leicester 

(h) Fulham

(a) Wolves

Leicester - (Currently 3rd, 56 Points)

Leicester will want to right their wrongdoings of last season, with the Foxes dropping out of the final four on the final day of last season’s campaign. Brendan Rodgers has done another fantastic job this term and after exiting the Europa League at the hands of Slavia Prague, they can fully focus their attention on the league. Out of all the sides in contention I worry for Leicester the most, despite having 56 points on the board, I think the ghosts of last season could come back to haunt them and they take on Manchester City next at the King Power, followed by a trip to West Ham. Their run in looks the most tricky of any of the sides around them and their final three fixtures of Manchester United, Chelsea and Spurs is far from ideal. 

Remaining Fixtures

(h) Manchester City

(a) West Ham

(h) West Brom

(h) Crystal Palace

(a) Southampton

(h) Newcastle(a) Manchester United

(a) Chelsea

(h) Spurs

Chelsea - (Currently 4th, 51 Points)

After eight clean sheets in his first ten league matches as Chelsea manager, along with a Champions League win at Atletico Madrid, praise should be given to Thomas Tuchel for the start he has made at his new club. Their consistency, particularly in defence and high possession based game has made them difficult to break down and in 13 matches in charge in all competitions, Tuchel is yet not to be beaten. With the form they have shown over the last few months I’d be surprised to see Chelsea finish outside the top four, however with Manchester City, Arsenal and Leicester featuring in their final four fixtures, they should be looking to get the job done sooner rather than later. 

Remaining Fixtures

(h) West Brom

(a) Crystal Palace

(h) Brighton

(a) West Ham

(h) Fulham

(a) Manchester City

(h) Arsenal

(h) Leicester

(a) Aston Villa

West Ham - (Currently 5th, 48 Points)

If you’d have said to Hammers fans at the start of the season that they would be fighting for a Champions League place come the middle of March, they’d have said ‘get to France’. David Moyes has worked wonders with this squad this term and they do have a game in hand on the sides above them, but the defeat to Manchester United on Sunday was a hammer blow; excuse the pun. The real lack of intent to go forward was clear from the off with Moyes setting up incredibly defensive, in a game where they failed to register a shot on target. One huge miss for West Ham was Jesse Lingard who was ineligible to play against his parent club. His attacking influence has brought goals and assists since his loan move in January and he will be a key figure if West Ham are to push on in the remainder of the campaign. With one eye on the fixtures ahead, I’d be reluctant to back West Ham for a top four finish, considering their next four games at home are Arsenal, Leicester, Chelsea and Everton. 

Remaining Fixtures

(h) Arsenal

(a) Wolves

(h) Leicester

(a) Newcastle

(h) Chelsea

(a) Burnley

(h) West Ham

(a) Brighton

(a) West Brom

(h) Southampton

Everton - (Currently 6th, 46 Points)

Don Carlo Ancelotti has enjoyed success in periods this season and the memories of Marco Silva’s reign now seems a lifetime ago for Toffees fans. Their first win at Anfield will since Kevin Campbell’s winner in 1999 has been one stand out highlight and an FA Cup quarter-final with Manchester City is on the agenda next week. The defeat to Burnley at the weekend, however, showed their inconsistencies, most of which have come on home turf. Looking at the league table for just home results this season and Everton are fifteenth and with even though they also have a game in hand on the sides currently in the top-four I think a Europa League spot is where they will end up after a positive first full season under the Italian, although they would not want to be needing points going to the Etihad on the final day of the season.

Remaining Fixtures

(h) Crystal Palace 

(a) Brighton

(h) Tottenham

(a) Arsenal

(h) Aston Villa

(a) West Ham

(h) Sheffield United 

(h) Wolves

(a) Manchester City

Premier League Betting

Tottenham - (Currently 7th, 45 Points)

Spurs’ five-game winning streak came to an end at the Emirates on Sunday in an eventful North London derby which saw Erik Lamela come on as a substitute in the first half, score one of the goals of the season, only to be sent off in the 77th minute. Jose Mourinho’s side are currently the 7/2 favourites to win the Europa League this season which looks their most likely way of qualifying for the Champions League next term. A busy schedule with trips to the continent will not help their chances in the league and with the trip to Dinamo Zagreb this week things will not get any easier in that department. Harry Kane has been phenomenal this season and really has ‘exploded’ with his 13 assists and 16 league goals. Spurs have been in good form lately and Gareth Bale has looked bright but considering the competition around them, I think they will just miss out on finishing inside the top four. 

Remaining Fixtures

(h) Southampton (to be rearranged)

(a) Aston Villa

(a) Newcastle 

(h) Manchester United

(a) Everton

(h) Sheffield United

(a) Leeds

(h) Wolves

(h) Aston Villa

(a) Leicester

Liverpool - (Currently 8th, 43 Points)

Jurgen Klopp’s men have the chance to go back to sixth above Everton in the table should they collect all three points at Molyneux on Monday evening. The contrast in form between the last couple of months and the first couple of months of the season have been nothing short of astonishing for the Reds. They have had many unfortunate injuries and there’s a case of only so long the manager can keep spinning plates by being forced into playing people out of position. After going three and a half years unbeaten at home in the league the Reds have lost their last six at Anfield - something that has never happened to them before. Despite this I still believe they have the quality to turn this form on it’s head and with the return of Diogo Jota I would not be surprised to see them rise back up the table. 

Remaining Fixtures

(a) Wolves

(a) Arsenal

(h) Aston Villa

(a) Leeds

(h) Newcastle

(a) Manchester United

(h) Southampton

(a) West Brom

(a) Burnley

(h) Crystal Palace

Our Verdict

Based on the current standings and points totals of the teams currently occupying the top four positions, it's hard to see that quadrant being broken apart. Manchester United’s total of 57 points is slightly overlooked due to the outrageous levels that City have set and Solskjaer looks nailed on to grab a top four spot and can afford to drop points in several games.

Chelsea have also really caught the eye under the leadership of Thomas Tuchel who remains unbeaten in his first job in England. We are yet to see how they fare against the likes of Manchester City but if they continue this form there’s no doubt they will finish inside the top four.

Leicester are the only side who I think could possibly drop out of the top four, although they do have the advantage of having points on the board. At 10/11 I’d be happy to have onside the favourite selection from this market and would be advising a 3pt selection. However, I don’t think Liverpool’s poor form will continue and the return of Diogo Jota should help them in front of goal. They have a game in hand over some of the teams around them and I expect them to go sixth after victory on Monday evening. At 8/1, I’d be leaning towards this selection if wanting to take something at a bit more of a price.

3pts @ 10/11 - Man City, Manchester United, Leicester & Chelsea to finish in the top 4 

0.25pts @ 8/1 - Man City, Manchester United, Chelsea & Liverpool to finish in the top 4

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