Manchester United v Southampton: SOT value to be found from unlikely source
Manchester United take on Southampton at Old Trafford this evening with The Reds having gone 17 games undefeated in all competitions, their best run since going 18 unbeaten in March 2013. Ole’s side will be looking to capitalise on both Chelsea and Leicester dropping points this weekend and a win here would see them leapfrog both rivals up into third place with just three games remaining.
Southampton’s 9-0 home defeat to Leicester feels like a lifetime ago, and since then they’ve massively improved under Ralph Hassenhuttl, pulling away from the relegation zone to now sit 12th in the table after being just 2/1 in the Premier League relegation betting back in November.
Having a look at the winner market and Betfred are a top price of 3/10 for a home win to United with the draw being available at a general 5/1. Southampton have been a profitable side to follow away from home this season and would sit fourth in the table were it to be based on away results, however BetVictor give The Saints just an 8% chance of a ninth league victory this season with odds of 11/1. The game kicks off at 20:00pm and can be seen on SkySports Premier League, SkyOne and also Freeview channel 11, Pick.
Phil Jones and Axel Tuanzebe are the only two who are unavailable for Manchester United this evening with a strong possibility of Ole Gunnar Solskjaer naming the same side for the fifth consecutive game in a row. Sofiane Boufal, Yan Valery and Moussa Djenpo are all expected to miss the remainder of the season while there will be a late fitness test for Jannik Vestergaard who is looking to return after a thigh injury.
We kicked off last week with a lovely 40/1 winner and I’ll be hoping for more of the same with these three betting tips to brighten a rather wet and dreary looking Monday with a particular emphasis on picking out some value in the shots on target market (SOT)
My first selection for this one is Manchester United’s Mason Greenwood to score anytime at 11/8. The 18 year-old has a staggering 16 goals in all competitions this season and his confidence is sky high at the moment after getting a run of starts in the first team.
There’s something quite beautiful about when a player bursts onto the scene and is just raw talent, oblivious to how great their qualities actually are and what they are achieving on the pitch and I feel this is the case with Mason at the moment. He’s scored four goals in his last three appearances for United and what has really impressed me is how both-footed he appears to be. His goal against Aston Villa last week, apparently on his weaker foot, was an absolute belter and I’m hoping he can find the back of the net once again this evening.
Having a look at the prices for this one I can see that bet365 are as short as 10/11 for a Greenwood Goal, however the good folk over at Betfair have given us a nice little boost up to 11/8. For the more shrewd punters out there it may be worth having a look on the Betfair Exchange as you may be able to snaffle out a bit bigger of my price, like myself taking the 17/10 available this morning.
Next up I’ve gone for Luke Shaw to have one or more shots on target (SOT) priced at 4/1 with both Betfair and PaddyPower. My main angle here is the difference between the amount of shots at Old Trafford Luke Shaw has had compared to on the road. Away from home, Shaw has taken just one shot all season in the league but when we delve into the data we can see that at home he’s taken 10 shots with 5 of those being on target, quite a staggering difference.
I see him getting forward a lot this evening with most of United’s attacks coming down the flanks with both Shaw and Wan Bissaka spending a lot of time in their opposition’s half. Skybet have this priced at 15/8 which gives plenty of appeal to the 4/1 that’s currently on offer from both Betfair and PaddyPower.
Finally, I’ve picked out another longshot for the game after last week’s valiant 125/1 effort was let down by a solitary Tyrone Mings card in Aston Villa v Manchester United. For tonight’s, I’ve opted for Bruno Fernandes & Danny Ings to have a shot on target, with both James Ward-Prowse and Aaron Wan-Bissaka to be carded which weighs in at 50/1, again with both Betfair and PaddyPower.
Since arriving at the club, Bruno Fernandes has been involved in a goal every 67 minutes, quite a jaw dropping statistic. He’s a joy to watch at the moment and seems to look a threat in every game. He’s averaging more shots per game than any other player at United with 3.5 per 90 minutes, and I’m adding him in here to have a shot on target once again.
Danny Ings has scored 44% of Southampton’s league goals this season which is the biggest percentage contribution for their club of any player in the league this campaign. He’s bagged 11 goals away from home this season and is in the form of his life at the moment, He averages bang on 1 shot on target per game this season and with the clinicalness he’s possessing at the moment he looks good value for another here.
Onto the bookings and I’ve gone for one from each side. For Southampton, It’s James Ward-Prowse, a player I also like backing in the shots on target markets quite frequently. The 25 year-old has played in every game for his club this season in the league and has picked up two more bookings than any other player in the squad with seven in total! JWP also averages the joint most fouls per game this season with Pierre Hojbjerg and I want him on-side to be carded this evening at Old Trafford.
Followers of my column will know that an Aaron Wan-Bissaka card was the cornerstone of my 125/1 punt last week and I’m going back in again on him for this one. At 5/1 as a single, I think he’s just too big a price to be carded and looks the value pick out of the Manchester United players. He’s had a total of six cards now in the league so let’s hope that becomes seven with a silly foul tonight. As always please remember to gamble responsibly and enjoy the game.
