Manchester Derby Stats: We've analysed all the numbers for your derby day bets
There's two Premier League games being played on Sunday including the huge televised clash between Manchester rivals, City and United. We will have a full match preview and best bets on the site from Saturday onwards, but we've also asked our statman Adam Roberts to take a deep dive into the recent history between the two sides, and look into this season's stats to see if there are any angles which you can use to your betting advantage.
As you can see from the above, the league position of the two clubs in recent years has bore little relevance when it comes to derby day. When we look at the last six head-to head Premier League fixtures, its United that actually come out on top with three wins, two losses and a draw. Manchester United have remarkably won the last three clashes at the Etihad in all competitions and three of their last four there in the Premier League!
Man Utd are 13/2 to upset the league table and defeat their noisy neighbours again. William Hill are actually boosting them to 100/1 to win if you are a new customer. If you prefer to ignore the recent form then you can get City at 2/5 or 25/1 using the link above, if you have no account there.
Another interesting anomaly coming from this data is the prevalence of clean sheets in this fixture. In the last six fixtures in all competitions there have been a clean sheet for either side in each of the matches. Further more, in four of those last six there has been a 2-0 scoreline - once at home and three times away. Those two scorelines pay 15/2 for a 2-0 home win and 50/1 for a 2-0 win for United.
Next we move onto the wonderful world of the cards markets. A few things stand out here: United players are comfortably shorter prices to be booked here - we expect that, as they have accumulated 55 yellow cards this season compared to City's paltry 34 in the Premier League.
Secondly, fouls and yellow cards don't always necessarily translate to bookmaker odds to be carded. Take Scott McTominay for instance: He leads United for both fouls (40) and yellows (8), yet is a much longer price (12/5) than his midfield compatriot Fred who has just 22 fouls and 4 yellows and is priced as short as 13/10.
Similarly Fernandinho has just 10 fouls and one yellow card but is bizarrely priced at a miserly 2/1 to be booked. Aymeric Laporte stands out like a sore thumb for City in the bookings market with five yellows and a red from just eight fouls this season. He is priced at 3/1 to pick up another here against the niggly menace that is Cristiano Ronaldo.
The last booking stat that grabbed our attention was based around the Man Utd captain Harry Maguire. When we study his past record against City, we can see the freak statistic showing Maguire has picked up nine yellow cards against the club in just 15 appearances - four more than against any other club. He is top priced at 11/4 with BetFred to pick up a tenth here.
Lastly we've studied the goals and shots markets and compared them to our opta stats pages looking for interesting angles.
Obviously for United the two leaders in goals, shots and shots on target are Cristiano Ronaldo and Bruno Fernandes and this is reflected in their odds. Ronaldo is a 13/5 shot to score anytime while you can get Bruno at 4/1. An interesting outside poke could be Fred who has already notched three goals from just 13 shots and is 55/1 to score the first goal.
It's a similar story for City where top scorers Raheem Sterling and Riyad Mahrez head the scorer markets and are as short as 6/4 and 6/5 respectively to score anytime.
One name that stands out to me is Bernardo Silva who has seven goals and 17 shots on target this season. Not only that but he has scored three goals in derby games in just nine games, so is clearly a man for the big occasion and will likely be playing in the false nine position as part of a front three. He is 13/5 to score anytime and a tasty looking 7/10 at William Hill to have a shot on target.
Another man who will always stand out in these stats is Joao Cancelo. He has notched 58 shots for City this season - the most for the club - and is 13/8 at BetVictor to have 1+ shot on target here. He's as short at 8/13 at most other books.
You'll now receive our expert tips and predictions from next season.