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Manchester City v Leicester City Tips: Value in the cards market at the Etihad on Sunday

Rodri was booked eight times in 29 league starts in 19/20 and features in our 90/1 longshot
Rodri was booked eight times in 29 league starts in 19/20 and features in our 90/1 longshot

Sunday afternoon is one of my favourite times of the week, pop the roast in, stick Super Sunday on and set up camp with a nice glass vino. And it will be no different this weekend with Manchester City v Leicester City being the featured game on the box - kicking off at 16:30pm live on Sky Sports. 

Pep Guardiola faces a selection dilemma due to injuries to several key members of his squad. Sergio Aguero, Bernardo Silva, Aleksander Zinchenko and Joao Concelo will all miss the game. Ilkay Gundogan is self-isolating after testing positive for Covid-19 at the start of the week and will also not feature.

Brendan Rodgers’ side have won both their league games so far against, Burnley and West Brom, however he has been dealt a major blow this week with the news that Wilfrid Ndidi will be out for 12 weeks, requiring knee surgery. Ricardo Pereira will also miss out with James Maddison set to make his first league start of the season after playing midweek against Bournemouth in the League cup.

Having a look at the prices for the match result, and it’s no surprise to see City the short favourites, given odds of 1/4 for the win - an implied probability of 75%. The draw can be backed at 5/1 with a huge away win for Leicester priced at 9/1. I’ve delved deep into the betting markets and have picked out three football tips which I think are good value for the match at the Etihad on Sunday.

1 or more goals in each half & 4 or more corners in each half - 1.5pts @ 11/8 betfair

Nampalys Mendy to be carded - 0.75pts @ 11/2 bet365

Sterling & Vardy 1+ shot on target, Rodri & Justin to be carded - 0.25pts @ 90/1 Paddy Power

Manchester City v Leicester City Tip #1
16:30
1 or more goals in each half & four or more corners in each half
City have been leading at half time and full time in their last seven league games at the Etihad Pep Guardiola's side have scored at least two goals in their last eleven Premier League games at home. City amassed 297 corners last season, 41 more than any other side.
Odds correct as of 2020-09-25 17:05 Odds subject to change.

The first of three selections I’ve opted for is, there to be one or more goals in each half, with four or more corners in each half priced at 11/8 with betfair. I was impressed with the way Pep Guardiola’s side overcame a potential banana skin in Wolves on Monday night. They ran out 3-1 winners in the end, despite starting first-team pre-season training a lot later than their opponents due to European commitments at the end of the last campaign.

City have been winning at half time and full time in their last seven league matches at the Etihad. Further to that, they have also scored at least two goals, in all of their last eleven games at home in the Premier League. In the 2019/20 season the Cityzens racked up 298 corners, impressively, 41 more than any other team in the league!

I think Leicester have played fairly average opposition in West Brom and a far from full strength Burnley side in their two games so far. I can see goals on the menu at the Etihad on Sunday and I always feel City are fast starters, racking up the corner count. At 11/8 with (or 6/4 if you are entitled to an odds boost) I’m prepared to have a dabble on this featured priced from betfair.

Premier League Top 4 Odds
Manchester City v Leicester City Tip #2
16:30
Nampalys Mendy to be carded
Ndidi out injured with more emphasis on Mendy to protect the back-four Marking Kevin De Bruyne at the Etihad on Sunday Will be without the ball for long periods of time and has already been booked this season Good value with bet365 at 11/2
Odds correct as of 2020-09-25 17:05 Odds subject to change.

For my second hunch of the afternoon, I’m dipping my toe into the ‘to be carded’ market and backing Nampalys Mendy at the rather generous looking price of 11/2 with bet365. 

Brendon Rodgers was dealt a huge blow this week with the news that Wilfrid Ndidi will be out for around 12 weeks with a knee injury that requires surgery. This puts more strain on his midfield with an extra emphasis on Nampalys Mendy to sit in front, and protect the back-four. The Frenchman has started both league games so far and was also booked in the win over Burnley last week.

When it comes to fouls committed at Leicester, Mendy leads the way this season committing the most out of anyone in the squad in the 180 minutes that have been played. In fact, only eight of the 305 players who have featured in the league so far in 20/21 have committed more fouls than the 28-year-old. He could be in for a long afternoon on Sunday as he will be taking care of Kevin De Bruyne and will be spending long periods without the ball. As City’s relentless press continues into the second half I can see Mendy becoming frustrated and picking up a card off Michael Oliver in the closing stages. This same selection is only 11/4 with betfair so I’d definitely recommend using bet365 at the stand out top-price of 11/2 for this one.

Manchester City v Leicester City Tip #3
16:30
Sterling & Vardy 1+ shot on target, Rodri & Justin to be carded
Sterling managed 20 goals last season in the PL his best ever return Vardy finished as the golden-boot winner in 19/20 with 23 goals and an average of 1.2 shots on target per game Rodri was carded eight times in 29 starts last season and was booked on Monday against Wolves James Justin looks great value to be carded at 15/2 as a single with William Hill & SkyBet. Booked in first game of season and up against Sterling.
Odds correct as of 2020-09-25 17:05 Odds subject to change.

I always like to pick out something for the optimists out there at a bit of a lengthy price and today I’ve got a 90/1 shot to liven up affairs - made up of Raheem Sterling & Jamie Vardy to have 1+ shot on target, with both Rodri & James Justin to be carded.

Raheem Sterling enjoyed another fantastic season with Manchester City, surpassing 100 goals for the club in all competitions, and notching his best ever Premier League tally with 20. Now aged 25, Raheem has matured into a player comfortable in his own skin and last season registered a total of 38 shots on target in 33 matches. That’s an average of over one a game and I fully expect him to land one on target against Leicester.

Jamie Vardy scooped the 2019/20 golden-boot award with an outstanding return of 23 Premier League goals. Over the course of last season he averaged 1.2 shots on target per game. Vardy is also the penalty taker for the Foxes and is normally their biggest threat in front of goal. At 4/7 to land one or more shots on target, he almost looks overpriced in my opinion.

Moving onto the bookings and the first name on the list is Rodri for Manchester City, who I correctly tipped up to be carded at Wolves on Monday evening. The Spaniard picked up eight yellow cards from just 29 starts in the league last season and he’s one who loves to break up play. He’s 7/2 as a single to be carded with Paddy Power, and if there’s any player from City I want onside to go into the book, it’s Rodri.

The final element of this four-pronged punt is Leicester City’s James Justin to be carded. Since breaking into the team due to Ben Chillwell being injured at the back end of last season, Justin has proved he can play either side of the defence and can get forward and help the attack. The 22-year-old was booked in the first game of the season and at 15/2 as a single with WilliamHill or Skybet the price looks too big in my eyes.

Putting those four selections together with Paddy Power pays 90/1 as a Same Game Multi which would give us one hell of a start to the season. Good luck to those following the selections this weekend. Please bet responsibly.

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