Manchester City vs. Liverpool Betting Tips: Fabinho to pick up a yellow in cards double

The game of the weekend comes bright and early after the International break as Liverpool travel to the Etihad where they take on Manchester City in a 12:30 kick off, live on BT Sport. Betting expert Dean Woodward is on hand with his best bets, including a 14/1 longshot. 

The game of the weekend comes bright and early after the International break as Liverpool travel to the Etihad where they take on Manchester City in a 12:30 kick off, live on BT Sport.

Pep Guardiola's side were in rampant form before the break, dispatching RB Leipzig 7-0 in the Champions League, followed by a 6-0 win over Burnley in the FA Cup, stretching their unbeaten run to ten games. Just the eight goals across the two for Norwegian sensation, Erling Haaland, taking his tally to 42 goals in just 37 appearances for Manchester City this season. 

The big news for Manchester City is the fact Erling Haaland pulled out of the Norway squad during the international break due to a groin issue. He is said to be “touch and go” for this big clash which will be a huge loss for the Citizens if he is to miss out. Foden will miss out after some fine form this year after undergoing appendix surgery last weekend. Rotation in the FA Cup game before the break will see the re-introduction of Ederson to the XI along with potentially Nathan Ake and John Stones.

Liverpool head into this huge clash off the back of back to back defeats for already the second time in 2023 as they most recently faced 1-0 losses to both Bournemouth and Real Madrid. They currently sit joint 6th in the Premier League on 42 points with Brighton and Brentford, seven points behind Spurs in 4th place. A season defining month for Liverpool and their top four aspirations as they face both Chelsea and Arsenal after Man City, with a crucial battle with Spurs towards the end of the month. Taking points from these fixtures will be imperative if they are to achieve Champions League football next season. 

Liverpool fans will be ecstatic to see the return of Luis Diaz to first-team training this week following his lengthy recovery from a knee injury – he could be involved on Saturday and make a return to the matchday squad. Thiago remains out with his hip injury, with another central midfielder, Stefan Bajcetic also remaining out with a thigh injury.

Manchester City being so incredibly good with the ball often prevents their opposition from making too many tackles. You have to go back sixteen games to see a Manchester City opponent go over this tackle line. Liverpool tackles aren’t great either – ranking 18th in the Premier League for tackles completed with an average of 15.1 per game. The three h2h this season has seen Liverpool make sixteen, twenty-three and fourteen tackles.

Along with the tackles, a line that looks attractive is Liverpool offsides. In all three h2h this season, Liverpool have had nine offsides, three in each game. Darwin and Salah thrive when running in behind and have together picked up the majority of these offsides against City, with both likely to start it looks great for this bet.

If there was ever a complete punt of a bet from me that isn’t solely based on date, it's this one.

Fabinho in my opinion has looked a shadow of his former self this season and to go with that he is picking up a lot of bookings. He has now been booked four times in his last nine appearances, with two of those in short stints off the bench. He has also been booked in both of his last two appearances against City, a side so good with the ball it can become frustrating chasing shadows.

Rodri on the other hand doesn’t have the best data to support this bet, although he is making regular fouls, committing six fouls across his last four games and has looked like a man on a mission in that midfield. He somehow escaped a booking in the International break after a crunching tackle on Martin Odegaard which looked capable of being a sending off. He is going to be responsible for breaking up counter attacks from Liverpool on Saturday and at 14/1 I think this double is worth a small play.