Man Utd v Leicester Tips: Best bets as the Foxes take on Solskjaer's men at Old Trafford
In an action packed week in the Premier League, the first of Tuesday evening's two fixtures commence at 18:00 at Old Trafford as Manchester United welcome Leicester.
Amidst a hectic schedule that sees his side face Liverpool just 48 hours after this game, Ole Gunnar Solskjær is expected to ring the changes tonight as the likes of Alex Telles, Eric Bailly, Axel Tuanzebe, David de Gea, Brandon Williams, Donny van de Beek, Juan Mata and even Amad Diallo could all start! Harry Maguire is ruled out against his former club with an ankle problem and Edinson Cavani should be rested meaning Mason Greenwood will spear the host's attack.
Despite the expected changes, Man Utd are still the bookmakers favourites here priced at around 6/4, however, Brendan Rodgers must fancy his chances. His side drew in the reverse fixture and beat them 3-1 in the FA Cup. Therefore, at 9/5 the visitors could represent value, especially considering that they have won 59% of their games when priced accordingly yet the implied probability of their odds is just 36%.
Man Utd v Leicester Tips
Solskjaer is incensed with his side's schedule that sees them play three games in the space of five days. As previously alluded to, the Red Devils supremo will likely shuffle his deck for this evening's clash and the entirety of the spine of his team - Maguire, Fernandes and Cavani - could all be absent. With so much rotation, even with Leicester's shaky form, Rodgers will be hopeful his side can return from Old Trafford with at least a share of the spoils.
The hosts' last ten games have yielded 36 goals - 3.6 per game - as Man Utd have scored 2.4 goals per game during that time. 70% of these games have seen three or more goals and this includes four of their last five top flight bouts. As for the visitors, nine of their last twelve EPL games have seen over 2.5 goals during that time they have averaged two goals per game.
Given the underlying data and the fact that both sides are missing key defenders, at even money with Betfair, I think over 2.5 goals this evening is worth a punt.
One player expected to prosper from MUFC’s busy schedule is Axel Tuanzebe. Opportunity has not been rife this campaign for the young defender but with Maguire out injured and the busy schedule he should get the nod this evening.
Despite his stunted game time, Tuanzebe holds a staggeringly cynical disciplinary record. He has only made 15 appearances this season - nine of which were from the bench - yet he has racked up seven bookings. Five of these cards have come in the EPL and UCL where has played for a combined total of 335 minutes meaning that he has averaged a card every 67 minutes!
The fact that Craig Pawson is overseeing this one makes this even more desirable as he has brandished an average of 3.92 cards per game this season, an average that only Paul Tierney has bested.
Given that Wesley Fofana is yet to break his duck for the Foxes this campaign, it may seem a little odd that I am touting him to find the net this evening. You could even make a case that his price does not represent any value given the fact that the Frenchman has only scored twice in his 64 game long career, none of which have come during his time in England. However, with both Harry Maguire and Jonny Evans absent this evening both sides are missing their primary enforcers when it comes to set pieces.
Maguire tops his side's charts for aerial duels won illustrating how valuable his slabhead is. He has been an ever present this campaign and is instrumental in both boxes as he averages 1.10 shots and wins four aerials per game. However, despite his best efforts his side have conceded eleven goals from set pieces this season - a total only Wolves and Leeds have bested - so I would imagine they will be even more vulnerable without him this evening.
The Foxes will be without Evans this evening. The Northern Ireland international has emerged as a threat from set pieces having found the net twice in his last four starts. Evans was absent for his side's last outing and Fofana appeared to be the target from set pieces in his absence. The young centre back has two efforts, both of which on target from set pieces as he generated an xG of 0.32.
Of the three centre backs expected to start for the visitors this evening, Fofana has generated the greatest xG (1.38), therefore, at 28/1 to score anytime I think it is a worthy small stakes punt.
Best of luck if you are joining me in backing any of these selections and please remember to gamble responsibly.
