Man City vs Newcastle Prediction and Betting Tips: Huge 95/1 FA Cup double available
FA Cup holders Manchester City prepare to host fellow Premier League side Newcastle United, Live on BBC ONE, at the Etihad Stadium in an enticing quarter-final clash on Saturday evening.
Dean Woodward is the man tasked with finding success from this quarter-final clash. Here's his betting guidance for this all-Premier League clash:
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City showcased their attacking prowess with a dominant 6-2 victory over Luton Town in the fifth round, led by Erling Haaland's sensational five-goal haul, while Newcastle had to rely on penalties to secure a hard-fought win against Championship outfit Blackburn Rovers.
In their recent Premier League encounter against Liverpool, Manchester City showcased their title credentials with a spirited performance. John Stones put City ahead with a well-taken goal, but Liverpool responded swiftly, securing a draw with an Alexis Mac Allister penalty. Despite the draw, City remain firmly in the title race, sitting just one point behind leaders Arsenal and Liverpool. Pep Guardiola's side will look to continue their impressive form and advance in the FA Cup, aiming to reach a sixth successive semi-final, a feat never achieved before in the competition's history.
Man City do face a huge setback with Kevin De Bruyne nursing a groin problem, prompting his omission from the Belgium squad. Additionally, Jack Grealish remains sidelined with a groin injury, and goalkeeper Ederson is set to miss up to four weeks due to a muscle issue sustained in the recent draw with Liverpool. Stefan Ortega is expected to start in goal, with potential defensive changes involving Ruben Dias, Rico Lewis, and Josko Gvardiol.
Newcastle United, meanwhile, have had a mixed run of form since their FA Cup victory over Blackburn. After a convincing win against Wolverhampton Wanderers, they suffered a narrow defeat against Chelsea. Despite sitting in 10th place in the Premier League, their European aspirations remain alive. However, they face a daunting task against Manchester City, a team they have struggled against historically. With their last major trophy dating back to 1955, Newcastle will be eager to upset the odds and secure a place in the semi-finals.
Eddie Howe is concerned about the fitness of Anthony Gordon and Dan Burn, both injured in the recent loss to Chelsea. While Burn's injury severity remains uncertain, Valentino Livramento or Matt Targett may step in at left-back if needed. The potential absence of Gordon could lead to Murphy's inclusion in attack alongside Isak and Miguel Almiron. Additionally, injuries sideline Harvey Barnes, Kieran Trippier, Nick Pope, Callum Wilson, Joelinton, Sandro Tonali, and Joe White, affecting Newcastle's squad depth.
Man City vs Newcastle Tips
The price on this has already started to shorten as we get closer to kick-off, but I still really like these prices about Livramento racking up the tackles.
With Trippier sidelined (who made 6 tackles last time out against Man City/Doku), Livramento is expected to slot in at right back. The 21 year-old isn’t the most consistent tackle hitter about, but he is more than capable on his day against the right opposition, and facing Man City's Jeremy Doku could not be any more perfect.
Without this match-up, I wont be playing the tackles, but its highly likely we see it given the predicted lineups. Right backs facing Doku have hit some crazy numbers this season. His last match against Luton saw Ogbene (subbed for Hashioka) at RB combine for four tackles, with Malo Gusto of Chelsea registering eight tackles in Doku's previous start. Looking a little further back where Doku has started on that LW, Vitinho made a whopping eight tackles on 31st January, with Trippier making six in the fixture before when both facing Doku.
Manchester City rank 4th in the Premier League for catching their opponent offside, with these numbers also increasing significantly across the last few months. They have now caught their opposition offside 26 times across their last seven matches (3.71pg). If you look a little further back at this data, the last 15 matches have seen their opposition caught offside 50 times in 15 matches (3.33pg) which is significantly higher than their season average of 2.36 per game.
The last head-to-head saw Newcastle caught offside a whopping eight times, with Almiron picking up three offsides. He has picked up an offside in five of his last 13 starts which makes this price around fair on raw data, but given the fact they face Man City here with an offside line of 2.5 (6/4) I think there's some good value in this 7/4.
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