Man City vs. Newcastle Betting Tips: Best bets for the early kick-off at The Etihad

Newcastle face a trip to Manchester this weekend  as they look to reclaim their place in the Premier League’s top four and we’ve got Scott Thornton on hand to provide us with two data-driven tips..

Manchester City haven’t quite been at their brilliant best so far this season but they are still in the hunt for three pieces of silverware. A breakthrough win over Arsenal was followed up by a disappointing draw against Nottingham Forest but they have recorded back-to-back wins since then. City’s consistency at the backend of recent seasons has been relentless and they will need to replicate that to retain their Premier League crown.

Pep Guardiola’s side are formidable at home. They have won 17 of their 19 games at the Etihad in all competitions this season. They are averaging 3.21 goals and conceding just 0.89 goals per game over this period.  No team has a better home xGA than Manchester City in the Premier League this season. Their xGA of 9.41 is almost two better than the second fewest.

Newcastle have won four, drawn six and lost one of their 11 Premier League away games. They will look to make this difficult for City by keeping things tight but expect them to succumb to the pressure at some point. City have only scored fewer than two goals in three of their 19 home matches. The Magpies have won just one of their last seven league matches and have lost their last two matches in all competitions 2-0. They shouldn’t get rolled over here but anything other than a win for City would come as a surprise.

In league away matches this season, Newcastle’s opponents are averaging just 0.64 goals per game. Liverpool are the only side to score two goals against Eddie Howe’s men away from St. James’s Park. City are a massive goal threat but I am siding with the visitor’s defence in this one. The goal line for the home side is a little on the high side. Newcastle shouldn’t be as open as they were in the reverse fixture and they seldom look to commit lots of bodies forward when playing away from home.

Manchester City haven’t quite been at their brilliant best so far this season but they are still in the hunt for three pieces of silverware. A breakthrough win over Arsenal was followed up by a disappointing draw against Nottingham Forest but they have recorded back-to-back wins since then. City’s consistency at the backend of recent seasons has been relentless and they will need to replicate that to retain their Premier League crown.

Pep Guardiola’s side are formidable at home. They have won 17 of their 19 games at the Etihad in all competitions this season. They are averaging 3.21 goals and conceding just 0.89 goals per game over this period.  No team has a better home xGA than Manchester City in the Premier League this season. Their xGA of 9.41 is almost two better than the second fewest.

• Latest Premier League Relegation Odds

Newcastle have won four, drawn six and lost one of their 11 Premier League away games. They will look to make this difficult for City by keeping things tight but expect them to succumb to the pressure at some point. City have only scored fewer than two goals in three of their 19 home matches. The Magpies have won just one of their last seven league matches and have lost their last two matches in all competitions 2-0. They shouldn’t get rolled over here but anything other than a win for City would come as a surprise.

In league away matches this season, Newcastle’s opponents are averaging just 0.64 goals per game. Liverpool are the only side to score two goals against Eddie Howe’s men away from St. James’s Park. City are a massive goal threat but I am siding with the visitor’s defence in this one. The goal line for the home side is a little on the high side. Newcastle shouldn’t be as open as they were in the reverse fixture and they seldom look to commit lots of bodies forward when playing away from home.

For our longer odds bet we are going to take the same angles (with one less goal allowed) as the first bet but with cards added into the mix.

There were six cards when these sides met earlier in the season. Newcastle have played three league away matches in 2023 and all of them have seen five yellow cards or more awarded. The average amount of cards across these matches is 6.33. The Magpies will want to make this game scrappy to stop City building momentum in the match. If it is as hard-fought as the reverse fixture then I see no reason why we won’t see a similar amount of cards.