Man City vs. Leeds Betting Tips: Two data-driven tips from The Etihad

Manchester City welcome Leeds United to Etihad this weekend as their grip on their Premier League title becomes firmer. After a profitable preview on Wednesday, Scott Thornton returns with his best bets. 

Pep Guardiola’s side beat West Ham 3-0 midweek. They were made to work by the Hammers but City were professional and seldom looked troubled. They are still in pursuit of an unprecedented treble and wrapping up the league title as early as possible will only help their chances with the Champions League semi-finals against Real Madrid looming.

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Leeds have offered Sam Allardyce a return to management as they bid to avoid relegation from the Premier League. Leeds earned their promotion under Marcelo Bielsa. The Argentine manager was known for his strict set of principles and attacking brand of football. They have sacrificed this style for pragmatism with the threat of the drop becoming very real. It remains to be seen if this gamble will pay off but Sam Allardyce has earned his reputation having never been relegated from the Premier League as a manager.

Allardyce was bullish in his first press conference as Leeds’ boss. He claimed he was “as good as” Guardiola, Klopp or Arteta. He will face off against Pep this weekend and have the chance to prove his tactical nous is up to the task.

Kevin De Bruyne didn’t play against West Ham and is a doubt for this one. Other than that, City have no injuries to worry about.  The visitors will be without Adams, Sinisterra and Dallas. All three have been ruled out through injury.

Our first angle is under 34.5 throws in the match. Unders on throws in Manchester City matches have served us well this season and it’s easy to see why. Their matches see the fewest throws in the league with an average of 29.81 per game. This drops to just 28.18 throws when at the Etihad. Pep’s side are able to dominate possession and play through opposition pressure with ease and this keeps the throw numbers down.

Leeds’ matches see a lot of throws. They have the highest average per game in the league but their style of play should be vastly different under Allardyce. Leeds should be reluctant to aggressively press the City defence and this should keep the throw numbers down. Also, the last time Leeds played at the Etihad, there were just 24 throws in the match. Sam Allardyce played against City once in his last job with West Brom. There were 34 throws as they met at The Hawthorns.

Manchester City hammered West Brom 5-0 in that game. Allardyce is adept at making his teams difficult to beat but he has been thrown in at the deep end here. He will have had next to no time to work with his squad and a trip to the Etihad is a bridge too far.

Pep’s side are averaging 3.35 goals per game at the Etihad this season; 2.41 more than their opponents. They have won eight home league matches in a row and they have won by at least a two goal margin in all of them. Moreover,  just one of those eight matches saw more than 34 throws.

Manchester City have the best xG in the league with 2.19 per game. They have been able to overperform their xG thanks to the goalscoring exploits of players like Erling Haaland. The Norwegian’s debut season has seen him smash the Premier League goalscoring record and he will be hungry for more as the season draws to a close. City beat Leeds 7-0 the last time they came to the Etihad. While seven would be a stretch this time, I’m still happy to back a home win by a wide margin.

This throws line is also very achievable. There have been 29 or fewer in six of City’s last 10 home matches in the league. It has also landed in six of City’s last 10 league matches overall so 9/2 for the double looks a good price here.