Lyon vs. West Ham Predictions: Hammers to qualify for historic Europa League semi-final

West Ham head to France with the tie finely poised after a 1-1 draw at the London Stadium. The Hammers are dreaming of European glory this season to top off a wonderful season and they will be feeling quietly confident after their inspired first leg display.

Moyes’ side were controversially reduced to 10 men when Aaron Cresswell was sent off on the stroke of half time. Despite being a man down, West Ham took the lead through Jarrod Bowen just after the break. Lyon were level 15 minutes later when the former Spurs’ man Tanguy Ndombele scored, but the home side remained resolute and showed they have what it takes to do a job on Lyon in their own backyard.

Both of these sides secured impressive wins over quality opposition to get to this point. West Ham overcame Europa League specialist Sevilla in extra time, while Lyon edged past FC Porto 2-1 on aggregate. The battle to get this stage should mean we see two teams going at it in a highly entertaining affair on Thursday night.

West Ham will be without the suspended Aaron Cresswell. Kurt Zouma and Angelo Ogbonna will also be absent for the visitors, further adding to their defensive woes. Rayan Cherki misses the match for Lyon and there are rumours circulating that Houssem Aouar will miss the match through injury.

Second legs often bring on a period of desperation for one of the teams. When the tie starts to slip away from a side they tend to throw the kitchen sink at the opponent in pursuit of a goal, and that would greatly help one of our betting angles here.

The first leg saw 15 goal kicks taken between the sides, so I’m happy to back over 13.5 goal kicks in this match. West Ham’s matches in Europe this season are averaging over 15 goal kicks per game and Lyon’s are averaging exactly 14. 

The high stakes nature of the match should also lead to an increased number of free kicks. Lyon took 12 free kicks in the first leg and I’m expecting the home crowd to put significant pressure on the referee here.

Lyon are averaging over 10 fouls against per game in Europe this season and West Ham are committing just over 10 fouls per game in this competition. The free kick market also includes those taken as a result of an offside. The statistics on both free kicks and goal kicks bode well for the best bet on this match.

West Ham needed extra time to get past Sevilla in the last round and it wouldn’t surprise me if this tie went all the way as well. The Hammers displayed a great deal of grit when they went down to 10 men in the first leg and I couldn’t help but feel they would have gone on to win the game with 11 vs 11. I think this will give them the confidence needed to secure a memorable victory in France.

As previously mentioned, I also like the look of free kicks in this match. Lyon’s second leg in the last round against Porto was played at home and the game saw 28 free kicks. I can see this one playing out in a similar manner.