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Lyon v Bayern Munich Tips: Back Majestic Muller to open the scoring against Los Gones

Only Ronaldo and Messi have more knockout phase goals in Champions League history than Thomas Muller
Only Ronaldo and Messi have more knockout phase goals in Champions League history than Thomas Muller

Lyon face Bayern Munich in the second of the Champions League semi-finals on Wednesday with Bayern coming into this one after one of the greatest performances in the tournament in recent years, turning over Barcelona 8-2 in a complete goalfest in Lisbon. I recommended a two point selection of Bayern to win the game in 90 minutes which turned out to be one of the easiest 11/10 winners you will ever see. I’ll be hoping for more profit from this encounter and have picked out three football tips I like the look of for the game.

Hansi Flick’s is expected to name an unchanged side for the game in the Portuguese capital. Benjamin Pavard has returned to training after an injury this week but Joshua Kimmich is expected to keep his place in the side. 

For Los Gones, coach Rudi Garcia faces a dilemma up-front after substitute Moussa Dembele came off the bench to score two goals in the 3-1 win against Manchester City. He could potentially come in for fellow forward Karl Toko Ekambi who has partnered Memphis Depay up to in the last couple of games. 

Lyon defied the odds against Manchester City after being priced at 13/1 to win against Pep Guardiola’s side inside 90 minutes. They are a similar price once again for Wednesday’s clash, this time just shorter at 11/1 to overcome the force that is Bayern inside 90 minutes. The draw can be backed at 5/1 with Die Rotten odds-on at just 2/9 for the win which would take them to their first final since winning the tournament back in 2013.

Bayern are in fact now 8/15 favourites in the Champions League Winner Market to taste victory in the tournament for a sixth time with Lyon given an implied 4.8% chance of lifting the trophy with odds of 20/1.

Bayern to win and both teams to score - 2pts @ 6/4 - Betfair Exchange

Thomas Muller to score first - 1pt @ 13/2 - Paddy Power

Depay & Gnabry 1+ shot on target, Thiago & Cornet to be carded 0.5pts @ 75/1 - Paddy Power

Lyon v Bayern Munich Tip #1
20:00
Bayern Munich to win and both teams to score
Bayern to win and both teams to score has landed in seven of their last nine games in all compeitions! Lyon have already knocked out Juventus and Manchester City and can get on the scoresheet here
Odds correct as of 2020-08-18 17:05 Odds subject to change.

I was full of confidence in my two point selection on Bayern to win against Barcelona and I fully expect them to win here against Lyon, however this time I’m backing Bayern to win and both teams to score in the game, priced at 6/4 on the Betfair Exchange. 

Rampant, ruthless and riveting is the only way I can describe Bayern’s performance against Barcelona on Friday. The high press they employ worked a treat, taking Lionel Messi out of the game and keeping him in his own half. They should see most of the ball here and I see the in-form Robert Lewandowski adding to his haul of 16 Champions League goals this season.

However, I’m a firm believer that Lyon can get on the scoresheet here. They have already knocked out both Juventus and Manchester City in the knockout phases of this tournament and are a side who look to be growing in confidence. They move the ball around really well and their speed on the counter could potentially hurt Bayern. Further to this, the German side have actually won and conceded in seven of their last nine games in all competitions! For all the praise they have been getting I think failing to keep a clean sheet in 78% of their last nine games gives plenty of weight to this bet. I’ve managed to take a bit of 6/4 on the Betfair Exchange, which looks a good price in comparison to the 6/5 offered from bet365.

Lyon v Bayern Munich Tip #2
20:00
Thomas Muller to score first
Only Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi have scored more goals in the knockout phase of the Champions League Muller has four goals in five starts in this seasons tournament and scored first in the quarter-final against Barcelona
Odds correct as of 2020-08-18 17:00 Odds subject to change.

For my second selection in Wednesday night’s game I’m backing Thomas Muller to score first in the match at the boosted price of 13/2 with Paddy Power. First up can we mention - how is this man still only 30 years of age?

It feels like he’s been performing at the top level for so long now and in the Champions League only Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi have scored more goals in the knockout phase of the competition's history than Muller who now has 23. He seems to come alive in the big games and that was ever apparent against Barcelona with the attacker scoring twice. 

He has four goals in five starts in this season’s tournament and with lethal Lewandowski being priced at a mere 6/4 with bet365 to score first in the game, Muller looks the much better prospect. At 13/2 I’ll be hoping we can have a repeat of Friday night with Muller first on the scoresheet for Bayern.

Lyon v Bayern Munich Tip #3
20:00
Depay & Gnabry 1+ shot on target, Thiago & Cornet to be carded
Depay averages the most shots per game of any Lyon player this season with 3.9 per game After Robert Lewandowski, Serge Gnabry averages the most shots on target per game of any Bayern player Thiago was booked seven times in 20 starts in the Bundesliga this season Maxwel Cornet has been booked three times in his last six games
Odds correct as of 2020-08-18 17:00 Odds subject to change.

Moving onto the longshot, and I’ve picked out one for the optimists here at the girthy price of 75/1: Memphis Depay and Serge Gnabry to have one or more shots on target with both Maxwel Cornet and Thiago to be carded.

As mentioned earlier Moussa Dembele could come back into the starting line up to partner Memphis Depay up top. Despite scoring two last time out I still think Depay is the better prospect here, with him averaging 3.7 shots per game in comparison to Dembele who has averaged 2.1 per game.

For Bayern I’ve opted for Serge Gnabry to find the target with one or more shots inside 90 minutes. After big Robert Lewandoswki, nobody has taken more shots per game than Gnabry this season. Lewandowski is a short 1/20 to register one shot on target against Los Gones so I’ve snaffled a bit more of a price on the Same Game Multi by adding in Gnabry who already has seven goals in this season’s competition. 

Onto the cards and for Lyon I’ve opted for Maxwel Cornet to find his way into the referee’s notebook. He’s actually been booked on three of his last six starts, and when you consider he is 4/1 as a single, in comparison to the 13/10 available on some of his counterparts such as Thiago Mendes, he makes some appeal here in the ‘to be carded’ market.

For Die Rotten, Thiago is the player I’d like onside to be carded here. He has seen seven yellow cards in just 20 starts in the Bundesliga this campaign. I backed him in the quarter-final to no avail and will be hoping our fortunes will be reversed here.

Those four elements together pays a nice 75/1 with Paddy Power. The game will be live on BT Sport kicking off at 20:00, but as always please remember to gamble responsibly. 

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