Luton vs. Sunderland Betting Tips: Danger man Diallo a generous price in the fouls market

Luton take on Sunderland in the second leg of their Championship Play-off semi-final at Kenilworth Road on Tuesday. After a 2-1 victory for the Black Cats on Saturday, this one is set up nicely and we’ve provided you with our best bets for what looks like a cracker. 

Saturday’s loss was the first time in 14 matches that Luton had tasted defeat, with manager Rob Edwards insisting that this play-off is far from over with the tie only being at half-time. Only Burnley and West Brom have beaten Luton on home soil in 2023 and they will be buoyed by their home record this calendar year heading into this second leg. Luton are chalked up at 13/8 with most betting sites to advance to the final on May 29, with Even money (1/1) on show in the match result market for this game. 

Despite going behind to an early goal from Elijah Adebayo, Sunderland came back to secure a 2-1 lead at The Stadium of Light, thanks to an excellent free-kick from Amad Diallo and a header from Trai Hume. This tie is delicately poised and the bookmakers have priced Sunderland as the 1/2 favourites to reach Wembley, while Tony Mowbray’s side can be backed at 14/5 to secure a win in 90 minutes on Tuesday.

Both of my selections from Kenilworth Road are from the player fouls market with the first of those being for Amad Diallo to give away one or more in the match. Paddy Power and Betfair go even money for the Manchester United loanee to concede 1+ fouls, which in my eyes, looks a little generous.

It’s been a superb campaign for Diallo with 14 goals including that free-kick in the first leg, along with three assists. Diallo is very much the danger man for this side and I expect Luton to target him hard with a few big tackles early on. He has also been shown four yellow cards this season and I think the accumulation of fouls that he draws (five in the first leg) can lead to him giving a bit back, often as we see with Jack Grealish.

When it comes to fouls, you will not be blown away to hear that between September and March Diallo only committed eight fouls for Sunderland. However, since then he has given away six fouls in his last eight matches, with this bet landing in four of his last five. I think there’s a much greater chance of fouls in a game with a reward such as this in reaching the play-off and at Even money, I’m pretty keen on this one. 

I’ve also picked out a fouls-based double weighing in at 15/2 with the same bookmakers. This time, I’m backing both Luton’s Amari’i Bell and Marvelous Nakamba to concede 2+ fouls.

Let’s start with Amari’i Bell. The former Blackburn defender ranks third for total fouls committed by Luton players this season, behind strikers Elijah Adebayo and Carlton Morris. Bell averages 1.4 fouls per game this term, but has cleared the 2+ fouls line in 14 of his 44 matches. That alone gives appeal to the 9/4 showing from Paddy Power and I’m willing to include him here. 

Luton gave away 20 fouls in the first leg against Sunderland and I’m expecting them to rack them up again in front of their own fans. Marvelous Nakamba is the next player on my list and since his arrival he is averaging 1.5 fouls per game on home matches. Nakamba has given away 2+ fouls in four of his last seven home matches and again I think his price as a single represents some value (17/10.)

Combining both Bell and Nakamaba to commit 2+ fouls on Tuesday, pays 15/2 with either Paddy Power or Betfair.