Luton vs Blackburn Prediction: Expect a feisty affair at Kenilworth Road

Automatic promotion hopefuls Blackburn Rovers head to Kenilworth Road this weekend to take on Luton Town in a game that looks impossible to call. 

On one hand you have the hosts, humble, hardworking and sustainably run. Nathan Jones side are amidst a fine run of form that has seen them beat Blackpool, Bournemouth, Reading and Bristol City and hold leaders Fulham to a draw. The only blemish over this six game period is the lacklustre 2-0 defeat at Bramall Lane last weekend. 

According to the underlying data, the Hatters have been good value for every one of those 13 points won, which goes a little way to explaining why they are the bookies favourites here, given the calibre of some of the sides they have faced. At around 7/5, the hosts' price may even hold some value as they have won 50% of their games when priced accordingly. 

As for Rovers, they are currently tucked inside the second automatic spot, three points clear of Bouremouth, albeit they have played a game more than the Cherries. With four wins, a draw and a loss, their form over the last six matches has been identical to LTFC, however, unlike the Hatters they have rode their luck recently. 

In their 0-1 win over Cardiff, they only generated an xG of just 0.16, Rovers then deservedly lost to Hull and were fortunate to hold on to the three points vs Boro on Tuesday as the visitors generated half a goal more in xG terms. It is no wonder that Tony Mowbray’s side have been a bit light on the goalscoring front recently though, as their talisman is on international duty in South America. 

All things considered, I am steering well clear of the 1x2 and with James Lingington incharge of this one, player cards are the way to go. He is one of the more card happy whistleblowers the division has to offer brandishing an average of 4.7 per game this season. This fixture also involves the dirtiest side in the league. Between them, the visitors squad has picked up 69Y and 3R cards, therefore, the player card market is where I went for this one. 

As far as cards go, Darragh Lenihan has been one of the usual suspects this season for Rovers, in fact with eight to his name, no player in the division has picked up more. Given his average defensive output, 1.7 tackles and one foul per game, this is a little surprising. However, operating predominantly on the right side of back three leaves him slightly more exposed then he would like to be and the cynical nature of his fouls, make up for the low quantity. 

Although he has picked up four bookings in his last eight appearances, with a career cards per 90 average of 0.29, 365 price appears to be too short. However, as previously alluded to, Lingington loves a card. It is also worth noting who he will be directly opposing; Elijah Adebayo.

Luton’s frontman loves a battle and this is best illustrated by the fact he tops his sides charts for fouls conceded per game average (2.1). This season he has started 22 fixtures, during which at least one of the opposition's central defenders has been booked in 12, that is 55% with a total 15 centre backs having their name taken.

For the reasons outlined above, it is also worth covering Blackburn’s other centre back, Jan Paul van Hecke, here. The Dutch defender's price does represent value regardless, as he has picked up 15Y and 1R cards in a domestic career spanning just 53 games and three seasons. 

Like Lenihan, he has racked up four cards in twice as many games, one of which came against Huddersfield where he committed five fouls.

Combining the two pays out at 9/1 with Bet365. Interestingly, this has landed in two of Blackburn’s games this season. Adebayo has also got two of his direct opponents booked in three of the games he has started this campaign. If you were to directly translate that percentage into a price, 7/1 would represent some value. 

Best of luck if you are backing any of these selections and please remember to gamble responsibly.