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Liverpool v Chelsea tips: Gomez to pick up fourth booking in six games

Player of the year contender Sadio Mane features in our 60/1 shout
Player of the year contender Sadio Mane features in our 60/1 shout

Chelsea travel to Liverpool tomorrow evening for what is the penultimate game of the league season for both sides. The visitors have the chance to confirm their Champions League place for next season with a win here, which would take them four points clear of fifth place. Anything less would mean that Chelsea could potentially still have to get a result in order to qualify, for which they are 1/16 to do so in the top 4 betting market.

Liverpool will lift the Premier League trophy with a presentation at full time and I think Jurgen Klopp will name a strong side for this one after defeat to Arsenal and dropped points to Burnley in their last three games. Klopp’s side have actually lost three of their last nine Premier League fixtures after only losing three of the previous 79! Defeat here would be the first time since Brendan Rodgers was in charge back in September 2015 that they have suffered two consecutive league losses.

N’Golo Kante is still a major doubt for Chelsea after his hamstring injury and will face a late fitness test. Christian Pulisic is expected to come back in for The Blues after being benched at the weekend. James Milner is expected to be fit for the champions after missing the last two games with a muscular issue. The match can be seen at 20:15pm live on Sky Sports Premier League as well as channel 11 Pick for freeview customers.

Liverpool are unbeaten at home this season in the league and having a look at the match prices for this one, BetVictor are currently top price at 21/20 for a Liverpool win. The draw is available at around the 11/4 mark, with a win for Frank Lampard’s Chelsea being offered at 5/2 from William Hill and betway.

Liverpool v Chelsea Tip #1
20:15
Marcos Alonso to have 1+ shot on target
WIN PROB: 34.72%
1.88/1
Calculate your returns:
£79.00
Why this Tip?

Alonso has landed a shot on target in his last three starts

He averages more shots per game away from home this season than Giroud, Willian and Barkley.

We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
Odds correct as of 2020-07-21 17:00 Odds subject to change.

For my first selection I’m going with Marcos Alonso to have one or more shots on target priced at 15/8 with both Betfair and PaddyPower. In away league fixtures this season, Alonso is averaging 1.9 shots per game, that’s more than all three of Oliver Giroud, Willian and Ross Barkley. He’s a man who loves to get forward, often forgetting his defensive duties and also pops up on free kicks occasionally.

I can tell you that this bet of Alonso to have one or more shots on target has landed in all of his last three starts. In those three games the Spaniard has taken nine shots with three of them hitting the target. I’ve backed this at 12/5 myself and I’m a little disappointed the price has been cut to 15/8 whilst writing this piece. However, SkyBet have this one priced at just even money which still gives appeal to the 15/8 available from both betfair and Paddy Power.

 

Liverpool v Chelsea Tip #2
20:15
Joe Gomez to be carded
WIN PROB: 22.22%
3.5/1
Calculate your returns:
£79.00
Why this Tip?

Has picked up a yellow in three of his last five games

No other Liverpool player has more yellows in the league this season

We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
Odds correct as of 2020-07-21 17:00 Odds subject to change.

Next up I’m backing Liverpool’s Joe Gomez to be carded at 7/2 which is available with both William Hill and SkyBet. This is another one that I’m a little down with over price as I would have liked to recommend this one at the 4/1 which was available with both betfair and Paddy Power before they cut it into 3s. However I still believe 7/2 is a very backable price and especially when you consider that no player at Liverpool has been booked more times than Gomez in the Premier League this season.

That’s six yellow cards in total that he has racked up, joint highest with Fabinho. The centre back has actually been cautioned in three of his last five games including on his most recent outing at the Emirates. He’s only started 20 games this season and I think he will have a busy night with Oliver Giroud on his hands who always tends to be a handful for most opponents.

Liverpool v Chelsea Tip #3
20:15
Mane & Pulisic 1+ shot on target, Alexander-Arnold & Kovacic to be carded
WIN PROB: 1.64%
60/1
Calculate your returns:
£79.00
Why this Tip?

Mane looked the most threatening of the front three v Arsenal and makes more appeal than Salah at the prices

Pulisic averages 1.1 shots on target per game in the league this season

Trent has been booked five times in the league this season

Kovacic has eight yellows in 21 league starts this season

 

We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
Odds correct as of 2020-07-21 17:00 Odds subject to change.

We’ve managed some success over the last two weeks with the formula of two players each to have a shot on target and two players to be carded making up our longshot, resulting in 40/1 and 66/1 recent winners and I’m going for the same in this one. It may be worth holding off until team news but if you do back this one with Paddy Power you should have a cash out available for your full stake to use if all players do not start.

This time I’m going for Sadio Mane and Christian Pulisic to have one or more shots on target with both Mateo Kovacic and Trent Alexander-Arnold to be carded at 60/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair.  

I’ve opted for Sadio Mane here over Mohammed Salah simply as he makes much more appeal at 1/3 than the Egyptian does at 1/8 to register one shot on target. Mane looked the most threatening of the front three in Liverpool’s most recent fixture at Arsenal and I think he should manage at least one shot on target here.

Christian Pulisic was on the bench for the FA Cup semi-final versus Manchester United at the weekend with a slight knock but he should come back in for this one. He’s been one of the stand out players since the restart and only Tammy Abraham averages more shots per game this season than Pulisic does for The Blues. 

Onto the cards and I’ve picked out Trent Alexander-Arnold who looks good value priced at 4/1 as a single to be carded. In my opinion he has a little bit of a nasty streak about him which can sometimes be beneficial as a defender. However I do think it makes him a lot more liable to receiving cards and with him having five already this season in the league and most recently against Arsenal I’m hoping he can pick up another here.

Rounding this one off is Chelsea’s Mateo Kovacic to pick up a card. The Croatian has been booked eight times this season in just 21 league starts. He’s one who enjoys breaking up play with a foul and makes more appeal here at 13/5 than Jorginho who is a rather skinny looking 13/10. Putting those four elements together pays a rather tasty looking 60/1 with both Betfair and Paddy Power, so enjoy the game and please remember to gamble responsibly.

 

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