Liverpool v Arsenal Tips: Back the dramatic rise in penalties to continue at Anfield

Bob Geldof clearly didn’t have a Sky Sports subscription when he wrote Tell me why I don’t like Mondays, or he’d have flicked the box on, seen Monday Night Football was on, and let a pleasant smile brush across his face. 

Liverpool v Arsenal is the main serving on Monday evening with both teams having won their opening two league matches. There’s some questions surrounding team news for the hosts with both Thiago Alcantara & Alisson major doubts for the game. Jordan Henderson, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Joel Matip are also sidelined for the Reds. 

Mikel Arteta should have his strongest eleven available if Kieran Tierney passes a late fitness test. Pabo Mari, Gabriel Martinelli, Callum Chambers and Shkodran Mustafi will not feature in any part due to ongoing injuries. 

Liverpool are currently the 4/7 favourites to win the game, although that price has been on the drift due to the team news surrounding Thiago and Alisson. The draw can be backed at 10/3 with a win for the Gunners available at 4/1 - an implied probability of 20%.

The match can be seen live on Sky Sports kicking off at the now earlier time of 20:00 instead of 20:15 thanks to Boris’ providing us all with a new bed time. I’ve picked out three football tips to hopefully ensure we can all switch over to the ten o’clock news off the back of a nice winner or two.

Liverpool -1 handicap - 1.5pts @ 9/5 Betfair Exchange

Liverpool to score a penalty - 1pts @ 4/1 bet365

Mane & Aubameyang 1+ shot on target, Xhaka & Alexander-Arnold to be carded - 0.5pts @ 40/1 Paddy Power

The first, in this trident of selections for Monday is Liverpool -1 on the match handicap, priced at 9/5 on the Betfair Exchange - meaning if Klopp’s side win by two goals or more, this bet will land. It’s been 1256 days since Liverpool last lost a Premier League game at Anfield back in April 2017, a truly remarkable stat which I don’t see coming to an end against Arsenal.

The hosts have been quick out of the traps this season with wins over Leeds and Chelsea in their opening fixtures. They have won 26 of their last 27 home games and further to that have scored two or more goals in 25 of those 27.

Arsenal are an opponent Liverpool have fared well against in recent years with The Premier League Champions having gone undefeated in their last eight against the Gunners at Anfield in all competitions. Their front-three is one of the best in world football and the Reds have scored at least three goals in their last six matches against Arsenal at Anfield!

Liverpool’s odds to win the game have been lengthening all morning due to the team news concerns, however I’m more than happy to get involved with the Liverpool -1 handicap at the price of 9/5 (2.8), out from 13/10 (2.3) on Sunday night. Jurgen Klopp’s side have not lost here in three and a half years and with all the stats pointing to goals at Anfield, I want Liverpool onside for a win by two or more.

Next up I’m backing Liverpool to score a penalty, priced at 4/1 with Stoke-based bookmaker bet365. It’s been well documented that there has been a significant rise in penalties awarded over the first few weeks of the new Premier League season. 

Over the first three weeks in the 19/20 campaign, there were eight penalties awarded in 30 games. Compare that to the first three weeks of the 20/21 season and there have been 20 penalties awarded in just 26 games. A figure that has risen three-fold, mainly down to the way that the handball rule is now being implemented by the Premier League officials.

We’ve seen some outrageous decisions and to be honest, it’s quite fitting with how 2020 seems to be panning out in terms of just when you think you’ve seen it all. However back to the matter in hand and Arsenal actually gave away eight penalties last season, the third highest in the league. With David Luiz at the back I always feel there is a chance of a calamitous error which could potentially lead to a penalty for Liverpool. 

Mo Salah scored two penalties in their opening day win against Leeds and I’m hoping he can repeat that with just one against Arsenal. Craig Pawson will be officiating the game, a man who awarded five penalties in 23 outings last season. 4/1 is the top price available on this selection from bet365, with Paddy Power and betfair taking no chances at the shorter price of 11/4.

The third and final selection for Liverpool v Arsenal is a longshot, priced at 40/1 with Paddy Power - Sadio Mane & Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang to have one or more shots on target with both Granit Xhaka and Trent Alexander-Arnold to be carded.

Kicking off proceedings in this Same Game Multi is Sadio Mane to have a shot on target, The Senegalese forward landed one or more shots on target in 15 of his 17 home league games in 19/20. He scored two goals against Chelsea last weekend and I’m backing him to have another good game on Monday.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang just seems to get better and better for Arsenal and he’s another player who I’m including to have a shot on target. He managed 42 shots on target in 19/20, with 22 of those resulting in goals. The 31-year-old is also the penalty taker for the Gunners and he’s their most likely threat in front of goal.

Moving onto the cards and for Arsenal I’m going for usual suspect Granit Xhaka. Only two players in the whole of the Premier League in Jefferson Lerma and Luke Milivojevic were booked more times than Granit Xhaka with ten last season. The Swiss International only played 30 games of the 38 least season giving him a perfect one in three ratio of picking up a yellow. He’ll be without the ball for long periods of time against Liverpool and I can see him making cynical fouls to break up play.

The final leg of this 40/1 longshot is Liverpool’s Trent Alexander-Arnold to be carded. He’s going to be up against Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang who has pace in abundance and has already drawn three fouls in the two games he’s played this season. Trent was booked on five occasions in the league last term and I believe he has a bit of nastiness about him that can see him pick up a card from Craig Pawson.

Best of luck to those following the selections on Monday evening. Please, always gamble responsibly.