Liverpool vs. Inter Milan Predictions: Two stats-based bets for second leg at Anfield

Liverpool came away from the San Siro with a solid 2-0 victory in the first leg of the tie, but the score line makes the game seem a lot easier than it was. Liverpool needed to be defensively resolute for large spells of the game when the Italians posed a significant threat, but the quality of Klopp’s side shone through as they were incisive in grabbing 2 vital goals that should prove pivotal in ensuring Liverpool secure safe passage to the next round of the competition.

Inter would have been ruing their luck when the balls were drawn for the last 16. Liverpool and Man City are looking like the standout teams in this years Champions League, but the Italians will have been encouraged by the quality of their performance in the first leg. Nonetheless, the prospect of turning the tie around at Anfield unlikely, so the pressure is off Inter here.

There are no injury worries for Inter boss Simone Inzaghi, while Klopp has to contend with injuries to Thiago Alcantara and Joel Matip.

Liverpool’s last 10 opponents at Anfield are averaging just under 10 goal kicks per game in all competitions this season. This climbs to just under 11 goal kicks per match for their opponents in their last 10 home matches. Inter themselves are averaging just over 5.5 goal kicks per game in their last 10 matches away from home, but this climbs to over 10 goal kicks per game in their last 5 matches where they have been priced similarly to win the game outright.

In the Champions League so far this season, Inter are averaging 6 goal kicks per game and Liverpool opponents are averaging over 9 per game. Given the numbers involving both sides, I’m happy to add Inter goal kicks to the main betting angle here.

Liverpool are averaging 20 throws per game in their last 10 matches in all competitions and just over 18per game in their last 5 home matches. Inter’s opponents in their last 10 matches are averaging just 13 per game, but Liverpool had 17 in the first leg and I expect them to dominate larger periods of the game here and this should lead to more throws for Klopp’s side. 

Liverpool have hit the required line for this bet in 6 of their 7 Champions League games this season, with an average of over 21 throws per game overall.

For the longshot, I’ll be carrying over the goal kicks angle from the main bet and up the line to give us some better odds. Liverpool have displayed an abundance of attacking intent this season and that should continue here; this in turn will lead to goal kicks for the visitors.

As for shots, Liverpool are averaging a staggering 19 per game in their last 10 home matches and although they wont need the goals from the off here, the team will no doubt be keen to put on a show for the home crowd.