Leicester City v Manchester City Betting: Vardy's incredible stats against City

The Premier League returns this weekend after the dreaded International break and one of the stand out fixtures on Saturday is Manchester City’s trip to the East Midlands to take on Leicester City at 5:30pm.

The Foxes put five goals past Pep Guardiola’s side when they met at the Etihad in an emphatic 5-2 win back in September and have the chance to temporarily jump back into second place before Manchester United take on Brighton on Sunday. It will be no easy task though with the four-time Premier League Champions having won an astonishing 25 of their last 26 games in all competitions.

One man who relishes the big games is Leicester’s Jamie Vardy and we’ve taken a dive into his stats and picked out a selection for the game that has been boosted by those good folk over at Paddy Power. 

A man for the big occasion

There have been over 2.5 goals scored in Leicester’s last four games at the Etihad and we’re hoping we’ll see plenty on Saturday after seven were scored between the pair in the reverse fixture. That does seem like a lifetime ago considering what’s been happening in the world and one man who bagged himself a hat-trick that day was Jamie Vardy.

A player with proven pedigree when it comes to facing the top quality opponents in the Premier League, Vardy is often the man for the big occasion. We’ve taken a look into which teams he has scored the most goals against in his career and Manchester City come out second. This is rather impressive when you consider that the former Stocksbridge Park Steels striker has faced Man City for the majority of his career with Pep Guardiola in charge.

Jamie Vardy - Most goals against in his career

• Arsenal: 11
• Manchester City: 9
• Liverpool: 8
• Bournemouth: 7
• Tottenham: 6
• Everton: 6
• West Brom: 6

Not bad for a signing from non-league

With 115 Premier League goals to his name, Jamie Vardy is one of the most accomplished forwards of his era and is now 19th in the PL’s all-time top scorers charts. From the 18 names above him, only five have a better goals-per-game ratio and you must remember Vardy only made his debut in this competition at the ripe old age of 27.

It’s against Manchester City where the now 34-year-old’s statistics stand out once again however. When we look at the goals-per-game ratio of strikers to have faced Manchester City in PL history (minimum 5 apps) Jamie Vardy ranks higher than any of the other big hitters over the last few decades.

Goals-per-game against Manchester City 

• Jamie Vardy: 9 goals in 12 games (0.75)
• Alan Shearer: 11 goals in 17 games (0.64)
• Jermain Defoe: 9 goals in 16 games (0.56)
• Mo Salah: 6 goals in 11 games (0.54)
• Thierry Henry: 5 goals in 10 games (0.50)
• Wayne Rooney: 12 goals 26 games (0.46)

If your into xG

Over the course of the season we’ve seen expected goals (xG) creeping into the mainstream more and more and if you believed everything you saw on social media you may think some sort of trophy may be coming Brighton’s way at the end of the campaign. When we apply xG to a player it can give us an indication of how many goals they should have scored based on the chances they’ve been presented with.

Topping the expected goals table for the divisions top scorers is, you guessed it, Jamie Vardy. According to the xG boffins at infogol.com, the Foxes forward has amassed 16.45 xG this term which is higher than any other player in the Premier League this season.

• Jamie Vardy: 16.45
• Patrick Bamford: 15.00
• Harry Kane: 14.93
• Mohamed Salah: 14.91
• Dominic Calvert-Lewin: 14.37
• Bruno Fernandes: 13.91

Penalty Kings

A large amount of the xG Vardy has accumulated is down to penalties Leicester have been awarded this term, with each one being worth 0.76xG. In fact, Brendan Rodgers’ side have been awarded more spot-kicks than any other team in the league this campaign and Jamie Vardy has stepped up to take seven of those, scoring on six occasions.

Paul Tierney will be the man in the middle this weekend and has given out four penalties this season. Michael Oliver will also be on VAR on duty at the King Power and it’s worth remembering that he has given out six more penalties than any other official this term and was in charge when awarding Leicester three at the Etihad. 

The Bet

Leicester have put a combined eight goals past Liverpool and Sheffield United in their most recent two victories on home soil in the Premier League and after taking a look at Jamie Vardy’s stats against Saturday’s opponents, we’re leaning towards him finding the net this weekend.

Bet365 are offering odds of 7/4 on the exuberant frontman finding the back of the net against the Cityzens, however Paddy Power have given us the enhanced price of 5/2 which implies a 28.% chance of landing.

Manchester City have the ability to shut out most teams on the day, although they have actually conceded in four of their last five league matches. John Stones’ error on Wednesday shows that mistakes can happen and considering Vardy’s remarkable record against City, during the most successful period in their history, we think this selection is more of a chance of landing than the price of 5/2 implies.