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Leicester City v Chelsea Tips: Marvellous Maddison to shine on Sunday

Brendan's side will have had an extra two days to recover in comparison to Chelsea
Brendan's side will have had an extra two days to recover in comparison to Chelsea

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If you’ve found yourself lost in the flurry of Premier League fixtures over the last couple of weeks you may not have realised that it’s the FA Cup quarter finals this weekend and I’ve picked out three bets I like the look of to help cure Sunday’s hangover. 

It’s worth noting here that there will not be a replay if this game finishes in a draw, and that it will go straight to extra time and penalties. Another rule change in this post lockdown world we are living in, is that a sixth substitute can be made during extra time in addition to the 5 that are now allowed to come on inside the standard 90 minutes.
Having a look at the prices for the win Leicester are a general 15/8 with most firms while a win for Chelsea inside 90 minutes is top priced at 6/4 with Unibet giving them an implied 40% chance, with the draw trading around a rather short looking 12/5.

In terms of team news it’s a tough one to call with who will start but Harvey Barnes and Youri Tielemans are expected to return for the foxes, whilst Tammy Abraham is pushing for his first start since the restart with Hudson Odoi still doubtful. The game can be viewed live on BT Sport 1 and kicks off at 16:00.

Leicester City v Chelsea Tip #1
16:00
James Maddison 1+ shot on target
WIN PROB: 52.36%
0.91/1
We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
Calculate your returns:
£79.00
Why this Tip?

Maddison averages the most shots per game of any Leicester player with 2.4

He's scored the joint most (4) from outside the area this season in the Premier League

Odds correct as of 2020-06-26 17:00 Odds subject to change.

Marvellous James Madisson has been fantastic in the centre of the park for Brendan Rodgers side this campaign. Getting forward and letting shots off as much as possible is a massive part of his game and I’m backing him to have 1 or more shots on target at the boosted price of 10/11  from Betfair.
He’s already taken money in the market, after being as big as 6/4 when the market opened, a price that lasted just a few seconds. However, when having a shop around we can still see that he is priced at just 8/15 with Skybet for 1 shot on target, a significant price difference to the 10/11 available still on betfair! 

Having a look into his numbers this season we can see that he is averaging the most shots per game of any member of the Leicester squad with 2.4 per game. He’s also scored the joint most goals from outside the penalty area in the Premier League this season along with Kevin De Bruyne and Riyad Mahrez with 4. I managed to get into this market early and posted on twitter (@AnthonyEadson) the three early prices of 6/4, 17/2 and 55/1 for 1+ 2+ and 3+ shots on target and they’ve all been slashed drastically. Let’s hope this is a good sign and Maddison can hit the target and land a couple of these generous prices.

Leicester City v Chelsea Tip #2
16:00
Draw & under 3.5 goals
WIN PROB: 20%
4/1
We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
Calculate your returns:
£79.00
Why this Tip?

The last three meetings between Leicester and Chelsea have been a draw

Leicester have seen under 2.5 goals in 5 of their last six matches

Odds correct as of 2020-06-26 17:00 Odds subject to change.

When hearing that there would be no replays and the games would go straight to extra time in the FA Cup quarters, my first thoughts when it came to Leicester hosting Chelsea was draw! I often like to have the draw on side in a game where extra time is a possibility with teams tending to lose urgency late on and I’m going for the same on Sunday. Having a look into the previous meetings between these two, the last 3 have all ended in stalemate with scores of 0-0, 1-1 and 2-2.  Much like many of the games that have been played without fans in the stadium since the restart, there has been a distinct lack of goals.
In fact since the restart there have been 22 Premier League games with only 47 goals, an average of 2.14 goals per game. Compare this to pre-lockdown and the Premier League had averaged 2.72 goals per game. 

Further to this 6 of Leicester’s last 7 games have seen under 2.5 goals in the match and with all this considered I’m going for the result to be a draw and under 3.5 goals at the price of 4/1 from Betfair. This means that if the score finishes 0-0 or 1-1 after 90 minutes we’ll be making money on this market.

Leicester City v Chelsea Tip #3
16:00
Pulisic & Barnes each to have 2+ shots on target
WIN PROB: 5.88%
16/1
We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
Calculate your returns:
£79.00
Why this Tip?

Pulisic has 7 goals in 13 starts in the league this season and is in great form

Harvey Barnes has a higher shots on target average than James Maddison and should be back in the side

Odds correct as of 2020-06-26 17:05 Odds subject to change.

Finally I’ve had a little nibble on this 16/1 shot from PaddyPower of Christian Pulisic and Harvey Barnes both to have 2 or more shots on target. Pulisic has scored 7 goals in just thirteen starts in the league this season and has shown great maturity at times coming in and out of the team at just the young age of 21. The American is the club's second top scorer this season and has the second highest number of shots per game on average with 2.1. He was exceptional against Manchester City on Thursday night scoring the opener and also managed to get on the scoresheet against Villa in the week prior. I’m hoping he gets a couple of shots on target and continues his good run of form this Sunday.
The second half of this 16/1 longshot is Harvey Barnes to have 2 or more shots on target. On the basis that he comes back into the starting line up this weekend I think young Harvey looks to be a decent price. He’s got 6 goals and 6 assists this season in the league and scored in his one FA Cup start against Wigan back in January in what feels like a lifetime ago. 

I mentioned earlier about how James Maddison has averaged the most shots per game of any Leicester player this season, but when it comes to shots on target per game, Barnes comes out on top. His accurate shooting is one of the reasons he is slightly shorter in the market than Maddison but I’m taking a chance on Barnes and Pulisic to have 2 shots on target each as part of this double. Let’s hope the FA Cup can throw up some interesting games and dare I say it show some of the ‘Magic of the cup’, but whatever happens make sure to always gamble responsibly, all the best. 

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