League 1 Promotion Odds 22/23: Could Bolton be the team to side with at 9/2

The League One season gets underway in just 10 days, with the first round of fixtures taking place on Saturday 30 July. Wigan, Rotherham and Sunderland were all promoted from the English third tier in 2021/2022 and we’ve taken a look at the odds for sides to be promoted in the forthcoming season. 

Last 30 sides to be promoted

• 2021/22: Wigan (Winners), Rotherham, Sunderland (Play-offs)
• 2020/21: Hull (Winners), Peterborough, Blackpool (Play-offs)
• 2019/20: Coventry (Winners), Rotherham, Wycombe (Play-offs)
• 2018/19: Luton (Winners), Barnsley, Charlton (Play-offs)
• 2017/18: Wigan (Winners), Blackburn, Rotherham (Play-offs)
• 2016/17: Sheff Utd (Winners), Bolton, Milllwall (Play-offs)
• 2015/16: Wigan (Winners), Burton, Barnsley (Play-offs)
• 2014/15: Bristol City (Winners), MK Dons, Preston (Play-offs)
• 2013/14: Wolves (Winners), Brentford, Rotherham (Play-offs)
• 2012/13: Doncaster (Winners), Bournemouth, Yeovil (Play-offs)

How many had been relegated the season before?

Out of the last 10 seasons in League One, nine have included at least one team being promoted that had been relegated from the Championship the campaign before. 2014/2015 is the only exception here, when Bristol City, MK Dons, and Preston were all promoted to the Championship. All three relegated teams the season before have only bounced backed at the first attempt once, which came in 2017/2018, when Wigan, Blackburn and Rotherham all escaped League One. 

The favourites

Sheffield Wednesday are the favourites with most bookmakers to win promotion in 2022/2023, with 6/4 on show from the majority of the big UK players. The Owls may not fall into the category of ‘relegated last season’, but they did finish the campaign in excellent form under Darren Moore, winning 14 of their last 20 matches, only to lose out in the play-offs to Sunderland. Wednesday have brought in some good signings this summer including Will Vaulks and Michael Smith, and with quality players for this level such as Barry Bannan and Lee Gregory, we can see why they are favourites.

Next up are Ipswich, who are being offered at the slightly bigger price of 7/4, with both Unibet and Betfred. Those odds imply a 40% chance of the Tractor Boys will be playing Championship football in 12 months time and it will be interesting to see how Kieran McKenna will get on in his first full season at Portman Road, after Paul Cook was relieved of his duties in December

Derby are highest of the relegated sides in the betting, available at 11/4 to make an immediate return to the second-tier. James Chester, Conor Hourihane, Nathaniel Mendez-Laing and David McGoldrick have all arrived at Pride Park this summer and look to be strong signings for this level. However, Liam Rosenior’s appointment is still only on an interim basis and with issues still on-going off the field, there’s a large amount of uncertainty still with Derby.

Peterborough also suffered relegation last season and will be looking to bounce straight back to the Championship at the first attempt. Grant McCann is the man tasked with sending Posh back up, and he has experience at this level, when winning the league title with Hull back in 2020/21. Peterborough are 7/2 to be promoted and have finished as the top-scorers in League One, in both of the last two seasons they have participated in this division. With Jonson Clarke-Harris and Jack Marriott, they are not short of firepower this time round. 

Barnsley finished bottom of the Championship last season and are the biggest priced of the relegated sides at 4/1. The Tykes now have Michael Duff in charge after he took the job back in June and he has made several signings already, including James Norwood, who he will be hoping can improve on his six goal tally for Ipswich last term. 

Also at 4/1 are the trio of Bolton, MK Dons and Portsmouth. The Dons reached the play-offs last season under Liam Manning and came unstuck against Wycombe in the play-offs. MK have lost two of their prized assets this window with Scott Twine leaving for Burnley and Harry Darling departing across the border to Swansea.

The Trotters were beaten in just three of their final 22 fixtures in the 2021/2022 campaign and Ian Evett has strengthened his defence this summer by adding Conor Bradley from Liverpool and Jack Iredale from Cambridge. 

Portsmouth ended the campaign in tenth in the standings, 10 points outside the play-offs. Danny Cowley remains the man tasked with steering Pompey to the second-tier of English football, but he has been a little quiet in the transfer window so far. 

Looking at those at slightly bigger prices, Gareth Ainsworth’s Wycombe can be sided with at 8/1 with BetVictor (most other firms are around 5’s). Charlton and Plymouth are also at 8/1 in the market, rounding off the rest of the teams at single-figure prices. 

Who to back?

So we’ve discovered that at least one relegated side from the Championship has bounced back at the first attempt in nine of the last ten season’s, but one team we think could be worth taking a chance on this season at a bit more of a price is Bolton. 

It’s been a tough few years for the Wanderers faithful, after dropping down into League Two, but we think the good times could be on their way back and at 9/2, they look like a potential value pick in this market. As mentioned above, Ian Evett has already added to his talented young squad bringing in two defenders, and he has a team at his disposal which appear to be progressive and are capable of playing some attractive football. 

In the second half of last season, Bolton were only beaten in three of their final 22 matches, and went unbeaten in the last eight, including against Wigan, Sheffield Wednesday and Portsmouth. If they can carry that form into this season, Bolton could well be a force to be reckoned with in the months ahead at the current prices, we wouldn’t put anyone off siding with them for promotion.