Juventus v Lyon Tips: Old Lady to be in fine fettle in Turin
Juventus welcome Lyon to Turin on Friday evening as they look to overturn a 1-0 deficit from the first-leg. Since then, the coronavirus pandemic has wreaked havoc on the world and as a result Lyon have only played four competitive matches since the game with Juventus back in February.
The Old Lady have not won the Champions League since 1996 and they have been knocked out at the quarter-final stage in the previous two seasons. Sarri’s side will be looking to end that 24 year wait to lift Europe’s Premier club competition, and have been given an implied 6% chance of doing so this season with odds of 16/1 in the Champions League winner market.
Memphis Depay missed the first-leg through injury but should return for the visitors which would be a huge boost for Los Gones. Youssouf Kone is sidelined with Marcelo also a doubt for Lyon. For Juventus, Paulo Dybala is a doubt for the game but should feature in some part. Douglas Costa and Mattia De Sciglio are sidelined through injury which could pave the way for a return to the starting line up for Federico Bernadeschi.
The game can be seen live on BT Sport at 7:45pm and having a look at the match prices, Juventus are the odds-on 2/5 favourites with Betfair. The draw is being floated at around the 7/2 mark with most firms while bet365 go 13/2 for a French win. I’ve had a look through the markets and have picked out three selections that look good value for the game.
Juventus -1 Handicap - 2pts @ 7/5 Betfair exchange - (5/4 top price elsewhere with bet365)
With the hosts trailing 1-0 from the first leg, I’ve decided to have a dabble on Juventus -1 handicap as my first bet. Despite coming away with nothing, Juventus actually dominated the game in France, having the majority of possession and key chances.
Sarri’s side claimed their ninth consecutive league title last month and despite defeats at the end of the season to Roma and and Cagliari they have still won 16 of their 19 home games this season. With players such as Ronaldo in the side I feel they have the personnel to turn this one around. Further to that, Lyon have only played just four competitive games since the first-leg in February and I think rustiness could be a real factor for them.
I’ve managed to get in early on the Betfair exchange and take a bit of the 7/5 (2.4) that was available on the -1 handicap. This might shorten slightly into around the 2.3 mark come kick off, with the current other best price with a bookmaker being the 5/4 on offer from bet365. I think the Old Lady will be in fine fettle for this one, and if they win by two or more goals, we will be seeing profit from this selection.
Cristiano Ronaldo is a man who needs no introduction, however I’m actually backing him to be carded here at 6/1 with Betfair. There’s some pretty short prices in the ‘to be carded’ market with Rafael even odds-on at 10/11 for a card. Another reason for the short prices besides there being a lot on the line here is that referee Felix Zwayer is in charge of proceedings. The German has given out an average 5.2 yellow cards per game over the last nine he has officiated also showing three reds in that period.
Staying on the market and there is only one player who is a bigger price than Ronaldo to be carded with the Portugese forward being priced at 6/1. He’s had three bookings this season and always seems to be at the centre of everything. He could become frustrated if his side struggles to break the deadlock here and considering the price and enormity of this fixture I’ll be having a nibble on the 6/1 on show.
Finally, I’ve picked out a longshot at 40/1 for Cristiano Ronaldo to score, Memphis Depay to have a shot on target, with Leonardo Bonucci and Thiago Mendes to be carded.
Cristiano Ronaldo has scored 128 Champions League goals in his career. An incredible amount and one that surely can only be matched by Lionel Messi. He’s averaging a mammoth 6.3 shots per game this season and with him being such a big game player, I’m expecting him to step up and find the net here.
The return of Memphis Depay should be a huge boost for Lyon. I don’t see them getting many chances but with the creativity Depay has shown over the last couple of seasons I’m hoping he can master a shot on target here. Diving into the data and the Dutchman actually averages an impressive 1.6 shots on target per game this season and with numbers like that I’m more than happy to add him into this one.
Moving on to the cards and first up I’m going for Leonardo Bonucci to find his way into Feli Zwayer’s notebook. The trusty old centre half has 12 yellow cards in all competitions this season with no other Juventus player having more. He makes plenty of appeal here at 10/3 as a single with plenty of his counterparts priced a lot shorter.
Rounding things off is Lyon’s Thiago Mendes to be carded. I’m expecting him to line up in the centre of the park in a heavily defensive role and think he could be in for a real test with the attacking power that their opponents possess. He’s been carded four times in the shortened French domestic campaign and I fancy him to pick up another here away in Italy.
Adding those four elements together using the Same Game Multi from either Betfair and Paddy Power pays around the 40/1 mark. Enjoy the return of the Champions League and if you do feel you have an issue with gambling, please seek help and use restriction tools available from bookmakers.
