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Can Jamie Vardy become the oldest player to ever win consecutive Golden Boot awards this season?

The 34-year-old is showing no signs of slowing down
The 34-year-old is showing no signs of slowing down

Can Vardy make history this season?

As Jamie Vardy turns 34 years of age, BettingOdds.com takes a look at the Leicester striker's chances of becoming the oldest player to ever win back-to-back Golden Boot awards in the Premier League. 

Having pipped Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Danny Ings to the post last term, 22-goal Jamie Vardy won his first ever Golden Boot award - just six years on from making his Premier League debut. The former non-league star's unique journey to the top has been well-documented in recent years, but what is most impressive is how he seemingly just continues to get better season after season. 

Most footballers - especially strikers - are either retired by their mid-thirties, or are at least starting to consider dropping down a level, and in many cases stepping away from the game completely. But not Vardy. Ageing like a fine wine, the 26-capped England international seems as fresh and as fit as he has ever done before and this season he has fired out of the blocks in a typically emphatic manner, scoring 11 goals in just 16 league outings.

His xG (expected goals) rating of 11.64 is better than any other player in the top-flight at this stage of the season, showing just how many opportunities he is getting each week, and should this form continue then you would back his finishing ability to do the talking right the way through until the season concludes in May.

The ex-Fleetwood marksman is just two goals behind leading scorer Mo Salah in the Premier League top scorer chart and is in with a huge chance of doing something no player at his age has ever managed before - winning consecutive Golden Boot awards in their thirties. Can he do it? The evidence certainly suggests so, and below I have analysed what could give him an edge over his rivals. 

Vardy Updated

Deadly from the spot

One of the key angles here is how many penalties Leicester have been awarded this season. The Foxes have so far been awarded 10 spot kicks in 2020-21, four more than Manchester United who have received the second-most with six.

Of these, eight have been converted (six by Vardy) and two have been missed (one by Vardy) which means that the 34-year-old has now scored 22 times from the spot in the Premier League since the start of the 2015-16 campaign.

While there is of course no guarantee that Leicester will continue to be awarded so many penalties, it is clear that if they do, Vardy will be on hand to dispatch most - if not all - of them, which obviously gives his chances in the race for winning back-to-back Golden Boot's a huge boost. 

His two biggest rivals in the market are Tottenham's Harry Kane and Liverpool's Mo Salah - both of whom are their team's designated penalty-takers. Liverpool, though, have only received half the amount of spot-kicks as Leicester so far with five and Spurs even less so with three (all of which have been scored).

Again, these stats can quickly change in the coming weeks, and both Spurs and Liverpool could see an increase in penalties while Leicester could go weeks without being awarded one, but if it doesn't and the pattern continues, Vardy will be the one to hugely benefit where this market is concerned. 

Premier League top scorer betting

Record vs big-six

Another thing which sets Vardy apart from a lot of strikers is his record against the division's bigger sides; just feast your eyes on his impeccable record vs teams from the PL's 'big-six'..

Liverpool

Games: 12
Goals: 7
Assists: 1

Manchester City

Games: 15
Goals: 11
Assists: 1

Manchester United

Games: 13
Goals: 5
Assists: 4

Chelsea 

Games: 14
Goals: 4
Assists: 1

Tottenham 

Games: 14
Goals: 6
Assists: 3

Arsenal

Games: 12
Goals: 11
Assists: 1

Overall record

Games: 80
Goals: 44
Assists: 10

To summarise, Vardy absolutely loves the big occasion, scoring just over a goal every other game against the league's 'big-six', including a hat-trick against Man City in the Foxes' emphatic 5-2 drubbing of Pep's side earlier this season. This is the true mark of a great Premier League goalscorer, and another reason why I believe he has every chance of repeating his exploits from 2019-20 again this term.

Leicester still have to play Chelsea twice, and each of the remaining five teams from the big-six once more in the league before the season is complete, and should Vardy remain fit for these games then you certainly wouldn't bet against him scoring in the majority of them, and therefore bolster his stance in the race to be crowned the Premier League's top scorer for the second time in as many seasons this summer.

Consistency is key

And this brings me onto my final point nicely, Vardy's exemplary consistency in front of goal. Throughout his career in the top-flight, the Englishman has scored 114 goals in 227 games (and counting) which is a goal every other game and ranks him 7th overall in the Premier League's best strikers for goals-per-game, ahead of the likes of Michael Owen, Robbie Fowler and Andy Cole.

Alongside this, Vardy's injury record - especially for a player now well into his thirties - is phenomenal, missing only seven games with a knock in the last five years! This is obviously the main reason why he has been able to play at such a high level for so long, and yet another reason which points to him setting a new record this year by outscoring his peers.

What are his odds?

Vardy has seen his price in the Premier League top scorer market slashed since the turn of the year. Before Christmas he could be backed at 11/2 with certain firms but now he is a best-price 9/2, third-favourite in the market behind Kane and Salah.

However, while that price is fairly short, it is one which could still be worth getting behind with the aforementioned factors considered.

Jamie Vardy is football's equivalent of a fine wine, remember, and there is no way on earth that this Golden Oldie will be prepared to give up his Golden Boot without a fight.

Premier League top scorer odds

Harry Kane
WIN PROB: 45%
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Mohamed Salah
WIN PROB: 36%
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Bruno Fernandes
WIN PROB: 8%
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Dominic Calvert-Lewin
WIN PROB: 2%
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Patrick Bamford
WIN PROB: 1%
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Son Heung-Min
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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Jamie Vardy
WIN PROB: 1%
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Ilkay Gundogan
WIN PROB: 1%
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Marcus Rashford
WIN PROB: 1%
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Alexandre Lacazette
WIN PROB: 1%
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Ollie Watkins
WIN PROB: 0%
1
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Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang
WIN PROB: 0%
1
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Raheem Sterling
WIN PROB: 0%
1
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Jesse Lingard
WIN PROB: 0%
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Danny Ings
WIN PROB: 0%
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