Italy v Spain Betting: Mancini's men a generous price for the win

Italy take on Spain in the first of the European Championship Semi-Finals at Wembley on Tuesday evening. We’ve cast our eye through the markets and have provided you with a selection we really like for the game based on stats from over the last season and throughout the tournament. 

Once again, we are getting the industry top price here thanks to Paddy Power giving us a generous boost, which takes tonight’s bet to a very backable 6/1. We’ve listed some team news for the game below along with why we think this 6/1 shot makes plenty of appeal.

Italy were simply magnificent against Belgium in their 2-1 victory in the quarter-finals. Roberto Mancini’s men played attractive, aggressive football, and never gave the Red Devils an inch as they pressed hard in what was one of the most memorable games of the tournament. 

Unfortunately the Azzurri will be without Leonardo Spinazzola who has been a stand out performer at this summer’s tournament. The left-back picked up a brutal achilles injury against Belgium and Emerson of Chelsea is likely to come in as his replacement. Federico Chiesa is expected to keep his place as part of a front-three alongside Ciro Immobile and Lorenzo Insigne. 

Pablo Sarabia is a major doubt for Spain with an adductor problem that he picked up against Switzerland, with Dani Olmo expected to step into the starting XI if called upon. Ferran Torres and Alvaro Morata should both start in attack for Luis Enrique’s side along with Olmo. 

Forza Azzurri

Italy head into their Semi-Final as slight favourites over Spain to make Sunday’s final and we’re kicking off this three-pronged punt with a victory for Robert Mancini’s side. We’re backing them to win inside 90 minutes which looks a little too big in our opinion at the current price of 6/4.

One thing worth remembering here is that Spain come into this game off the back of two 120 minute matches. Furthermore, those games for the Spanish took place in Copenhagen and Russia which should give Italy an edge in terms of fitness over La Roja. 

Having a look back on Italy’s defensive performances at Euro 2021 and they have only conceded over 1.0xG in one of their five matches so far with strong defensive performances which can be seen below through the figures which exclude extra time.

Italy xG Conceded

• 0.60xG vs Turkey
• 0.23xG vs Switzerland
• 0.56xG vs Wales
• 0.45xG vs Austria
• 1.90xG vs Belgium

Italy have been many punters ‘team of the tournament’ so far and have been incredibly tough to break down. Spain may be the top scorers at the tournament, but 10 of their 12 goals have come across two matches and with Alvaro Morata continuing to squander big chances in front of goal, The Italians look to have the upper hand. 

Shoot on sight for Chiesa

Roberto Mancini opted for pace when bringing in Federico Chiesa against Belgium to replace Domenico Beradi on the right-side of attack. The 23-year-old from Juventus is expecting to keep his place for this match and we’re backing him to have one or more shots on target.

The right winger scored eight goals and provided eight assists in Serie A last season, averaging 2.0 shots a game with 0.8 on target. Against Belgium, Chiesa let off five shots with one hitting the target and in his only other start at the tournament he attempted four with one hitting the target. Chiesa is averaging 3.73 shots per 90 minutes at Euro 2021 and we’re happy to include him here to have one or more on target against Spain.

Torres To Hit The Target

Manchester City’s Ferran Torres was one of the pre-tournament favourites to be crowned Young Player of the Tournament with most firms who were offering the market. The 21-year-old can still be backed at that same pre-tournament-price of 9/1 with BetVictor, although Italy’s Gianluigi Donnarumma is now as short as 6/4 with Paddy Power to take the award.

It’s the shots on target market where we are once again heading to, this time with Torres who we’ve included to hit the target once against Italy. Torres has registered a shot on target in two of his three starts at the tournament and I think he will provide a stiff test for Emerson at left-back who will come in for the injured Spinazzola.

Torres has eight International goals to his name in just 16 appearances for Spain since making his debut in 2020. After letting off six shots in total at this summer’s tournament, with three hitting the target we’re happy to include him here.

The Bet

So let’s recap, we’ve got an attractive looking 6/1 shot here which includes both Ferran Torres and Federico Chiesa to have one or more shots on target, with Italy to win the game inside 90 minutes. 

Spain could start to really tire in the second half due to playing back-to-back 120 minute matches. This could play into Italy’s hands and after being the dominant side against the Belgians they look good value here.

Best of luck to anyone having a bet on the game, which can be seen live on BBC1 at 8pm.