Inter Milan vs. AC Milan Betting Tips: Two bets for San Siro rematch

The San Siro plays host to a Champions League semi-final for the second time in a week as Inter Milan and AC Milan battle it out for a prized place in the Final.

Inter crucially hold a 2-0 advantage from the first-leg, with Scott Thornton picking out his best two bets for the rematch on Tuesday night (8pm, BT Sport).

AC Milan have it all to do in their Champions League semi-final second leg against Internazionale. The good news for Stefan Pioli’s side is that they won’t have to travels, despite this being an away fixture.

Inter were relentless in the first leg. They came out of the blocks quickly and had a 2-0 lead after 12 minutes od the match. Edin Dzeko was a potent threat. The former Manchester City striker showed great technique as he found the net with a cleverly struck volley.  The first goal set the tone and Inter were dominant until after the hour mark; by then the damage was already done. Inter have beaten Milan in four of the last five head-to-heads.

The game may be at the San Siro again, but Milan won’t have the backing of the Curva Sud this time around. Instead they will be greeted by a hostile crows so it is hugely important that they start the game on the front foot. Pioli’s men have failed to score in any of their last three meetings with their local rivals. Overturning the deficit in this tie and reaching the final would be a monumental achievement for the side that won Serie A last season.

Inter are unlikely to take risks in this one, particularly in the early stages.

They should let Milan see more of the ball than they usually would in front of their own crowd. This will likely lead to Inter making a good amount of tackles.

Simone Inzaghi’s team have had 17 or more tackles in all five of their Champions League matches played at home this season. They are averaging 17.8 in these matches and had 19 tackles in the first leg of this tie.

They allow the opposition to have the fourth-fewest passes per defensive action in Serie A this season, which bodes well ahead of a high-octane match such as this one.

They are unlikely to allow their local rivals to maraud up the pitch uncontested and the data suggests they will get stuck in to keep them at bay. Inter are averaging 16.85 tackles per home match in all competitions this season.

We are going to combine Inter tackles with goal kicks. Milan were toothless for large periods of the first leg but they still managed to force 11 goal kicks from their opponents as they attempted to get back into the game.

They start this one needing at least two goals to make it to extra time so expect them to roll the dice, even in the early stages.

Rafael Leao’s likely return is also a massive boost and he will aid them in their chase. AC Milan’s opponents in the league this season are averaging 8.74 goal kicks per game.

For our longer odds bet, we are taking the same angles as the main bet but using the higher lines.

This has the potential to be an action-packed affair: The intense rivalry and the fact that the away side need to go full-tilt from the off means we could see a Champions League classic.

Milan’s opponents in the Champions League this season are averaging 19.82 tackles per game so this higher line looks more than achievable.

When they are in a losing position in Serie A this season, Milan’s opponents are averaging 9.77 goal kicks per 90 minutes. When Inter are winning, they are averaging 9.59 goal kicks per 90 minutes.