Gibraltar v Netherlands Tips: Dutchmen expected to fly through minnows
Live on Sky Sports, Euro 2021 Group G favourites Holland head to Gibraltar in their third World Cup qualifying game. This is the first head-to-head between the two sides and the bookies see it only going one way.
The Netherlands have had a mixed start to their qualifying campaign as they continue to adapt to life under Frank De Boer. They opened with a 4-2 loss to Turkey followed by a 2-0 home win over Latvia. As for Gibraltar, the second-lowest ranked team on the European side of qualifying, the signs aren’t looking too bright for them here. Currently sitting bottom of the group after 2 games, shipping seven goals in the process and only netting once themselves.
They have lost 4-1 and 3-0 vs weaker opposition than Holland in their last two outings, so anything but a comfortable win for the away side here would come as a shock. It is understandable to see bookmakers have Holland as short as 1/100, implying a 99% chance they come away with all 3 points.
Netherlands possible starting line-up:
Krul, Dumfries, De Ligt, Blind, Van Aanholt, De roon, Gravenburch, Berghuis, Van De Beek, Malen, Depay. (4-2-3-1).
Sitting as the 16th lowest side in the world FIFA rankings, there is little to suggest Gibraltar stand a chance here. The most useful data of recent to back this is when Gibraltar were placed in the same Euro qualifying group as Switzerland and Denmark, two sides who rank similarly to the Netherlands. Over the four games against these sides, they lost by a total aggregate of 22-1, with this specific bet landing in 3 of the 4 games.
This bet is effectively the same as the –4 handicap just at a slightly better price, meaning we need Holland to win by 5 or more for a winner. Given the opposition and the firepower available to the away side, I am confident in making this our main play.
The Dutch centre half is a key part of this defence, even more so in the continued absence of Virgil van Dijk. Despite his age he possesses huge leadership qualities which ensures he is one of the first names on the team sheet.
In addition to his defensive presence, he is always been a threat in the oppositions box. With a career average of one shot per game I fancy him to get a chance again here. He has managed 3 shots in 2 games so far this World cup campaign, cracking the post on one occasion vs Turkey.
When you consider the opposition and the volume of corners Holland should get, I am more than happy to nibble at the 10/3 for him to score anytime available on Bet365. However, I would advise ticking the ‘void if player does not start’ as a heavily rotated side could be the way in here for Frank De Boer.
These types of games can be exceptionally tough to find value, but for my longshot I am heading to the correct scores market. In a game where we could see a rotated Dutch side, there is no doubt in my mind that these players will be out to impress. History suggests a heavy away win and I don’t see the Netherlands conceding here.
As mentioned earlier on in the piece, Gibraltar aren’t unfamiliar with being on the wrong side of a smashing. Both Euro Qualifiers vs Denmark ended 6-0 to the Danes so I am willing to chuck small change at history repeating itself again, but this time in favour of the flying Dutchmen.
Please note, all odds were the best at the time of this being written. Best of luck if you follow these tips, but as always, only bet what you can afford to lose.
