Germany v Hungary Tips: Low's side favourites to win in Group F clash

Germany require a positive result in Munich on Wednesday as they welcome Marco Rossi’s stubborn Hungary side.

The Germans currently sit in second place- on three points- one point behind leaders France, however, with Les Bleus taking on Portugal in their last group game victory for Joachim Löw’s side could see them leapfrog the World Champions and qualify as top-seed.

The bookies clearly fancy the hosts to make light work of the Magyars’ here as well, pricing them as short as 1/6 to win. However, this Hungary team has proved to be a tough nut to crack. It took Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portugal 84 minutes to break them down whilst France could not manage it. Therefore, with a qualification still a possibility for the visitors I would not be so quick to rule them out.

As for team news, Mats Hummels, Thomas Muller, Ilkay Gundogan and Lukas Klostermann all missed training on Monday. This could see Leon Goretzka get his first start of the tournament. The visitors supremo could name an unchanged XI here assuming that Ádám Szalai has recovered from the knock to the head he sustained vs France.

Such a big handicap at a backable price simply has to be attacked, although it is worth noting this market is subject to change, so it might be worth shopping around before you back it.

This line see’s half our stake go on Hungary with a two goal headstart and the other half go on them with a two and a half goal head start. This means that this bet is a winner if Hungary win, draw or lose by one goal, it means that we have a half stake winner if Hungary loses by two goals and it means the bet is a loser if Germany wins by three or more goals.

Including their Euro 2020 games, Hungary have only lost by three or more goals on five occasions since 2016. This period stretches back 49 games during which time they have held the World Champions France- their most recent game- beat Turkey, Serbia, Wales and Croatia. It is also worth noting that it took three late goals- a deflected shot in the 84’ minute and a 87’ penalty- for Portugal to get the better of them.

Germany may be frightfully short here and whilst you would expect them to get the job done you cannot go near them at the prices available. Inconsistency has been rife in recent months for Die Mannschaft. Their last eight games have seen them thrashed 6-0 by Spain, beaten 2-1 by North Macedonia and held by France. They drew 1-1 with Denmark and only narrowly got the better of Romania.

Another price I like for this fixture is Bet365's 11/10 for Hungarian striker Rolland Sallai to register two or more shots.

This is a feat Sallai has already managed in both of his nations Euro 2020 fixtures thus far as he has been responsible for half of their ten shots. During which time he has proved that he is not shot-shy as he takes aim from anywhere, best illustrated by the fact that none of his five shots so far have come from inside the box.

Sallai will be familiar with the Germans as he plys his trade in their domestic top flight; the Bundesliga. For Freiburg this campaign, he has found the net eight times- despite being deployed in a deeper role to where he is utilised for his nation- and has registered two or more shots in 68% of his domestic starts.

As for the German’s, their defending this campaign has left a lot to be desired. Löw’s side have shipped three goals in their opening two games.

If you are after something a bit chunkier, you can combine Sallai to have two shots with Sallai and Adam Nagy cards at 60/1 using Bet365’s bet builder.

Russian referee Sergei Karasev is overseeing this one. He has averaged 5.11 per game this campaign and with the Hungarians expected to have to endure long periods without the ball they could tire which bodes well for cards.

Adam Nagy has only picked up five cards for club and country this campaign, however, three of those have come whilst representing his country as he has averaged one every three games played. Rolland Sallai is yet to pick up a card this tournament but tops his nations fouls per game charts with 2.5 as he is often asked to defend from the front.

Best of luck if you are backing any of these selections and please remember to gamble responsibly.