Freiburg v Borussia Monchengladbach Tips: Preview and Predictions for Bundesliga Clash
The Bundesliga returns on Friday night as Freiburg entertain Borussia Monchengladbach at the Schwarzwald-Stadion at 19:30 on BT Sport. It's a week since Freiburg put up a pretty limp display at home to Leverkusen losing 0-1 and the layers have Gladbach as more or less the same chances of picking up three points as their top 4 rivals on Friday.
Leverkusen laboured to a 1-0 victory a week ago sent off 7/10 favourites, whilst Bet365 have Gladbach 8/11 favourites, an implied probability of 58% to win the match, just 1% lower than Leverkusen.
Freiburg are best priced 7/2 with Betfair which gives them an implied probability of just 22% to win the match, with the draw a 3/1 shot.
Yet to win from their four games since the restart, Christian Streich's team have struggled to create chances whilst allowing plenty to the opposition. Even in the 3-3 draw at Eintracht Frankfurt two games ago, Freiburg gave up 16 shots on target to the relegation threatened team and were lucky to escape with the draw, scoring three times from their five shots in target.
On the face of it, Freiburg have been competitive against the top five teams scoreline wise, scoring in all but two of the eight games. A surprise win over Red Bull Leipzig earlier in the season, despite conceding 24 shots and over 60% possession, scoring twice from their three attempts on target took all three points.
In fact, barring a couple of exceptions Freiburg have struggled to keep the better teams in the league at bay, averaging 19 shots a game against the top five conceded and seven shots per game on target, whilst allowing an average of 64% possession to their opponents Friday night could be a very similar story.
Borussia Monchengladbach have performed in fits and starts so far since the league resumed, impressive wins at Eintracht Frankfurt (3-1) and at home to Union Berlin the last day winning 4-1, sandwiched between them were two disappointing efforts losing at home to Bayer Leverkusen and drawing 0-0 against an average Werder Bremen outfit.
Averaging two goals a game and 6.75 shots on target, opposed to the 2.25 SOTs per game from Freiburg, we've picked out three bets for you very much focusing on the away side as they look to leapfrog Leipzig into third place with a win.
French forward duo Alessane Plea and Marcus Thuram are inseparable in the scoring charts for Monchengladbach. Both men have ten goals to their names in the league this season, Thuram netting four times since the restart and Plea twice. They dominate the betting as a result, both priced up at 13/8 to score anytime, but Paddy Power have boosted our tip of Alessane Plea to get two or more shots on target from even money to 13/8.
Plea is the senior player in terms of minutes played and looks the safer play for our short priced tip, he also averages over an extra shot per game to Thuram who features in our next bet...
As already stated, Thuram was in scintillating form last weekend adding his ninth and tenth goals of the season in the 4-1 win over Union Berlin, and his fourth in four since the season restart. At 13/8 to score anytime, we're doubling up with Ramy Bensebaini to be booked.
The all-action Algerian is a 'Tour de Force' for Same Game Multi bettors. The all-action Algerian plays full back for Monchengladbach but is a good value play in the SOT and scorer markets as well as bookings.
Bensebaini has had 18 shots in his 15 games for Die Fohlen (The Foals), including seven on target scoring five times! He's on penalties which brings anytime scorer into play at 4/1, whilst he's no shrinking violet in the tackle either, picking up four bookings in his last eight games.
We backed the defender to record the 'Holy Trinity' of a booking, goal and shot on target in our last preview involving Monchengladbach and he narrowly missed out getting two of the three. He had four efforts on goal in that match against Leverkusen and having been rested in the 0-0 draw with Werder Bremen when asked to play three times in a week, we're hopeful that the six day break since last weekend's win over Union Berlin will be enough to see the Algerian feature heavily here. A shot on target is an even money chance, whilst he's 21/10 to pick up a booking which is what we're going to double up with Thuram's scorer bet here, a 17/2 chance with Betfair.
Only Borussia Dortmund have picked up less bookings than Freiburg this season, 35 plus two reds, but Nicolas Hofler has picked up 20% of the team's bookings and looks the pick of the home side in the 'To be booked' market at 15/8.
Gladbach's disciplinary record is a contrast, ranking the fourth worst in the Bundesliga with 64 yellows and two reds, that's just over two bookings a game. Austrian Stefan Lainer tops the bookings charts for the away side with seven, the full back is an ever present for Gladbach and looks a solid play to pick up an eighth card on Friday night at a tasty looking 7/2.
There's no outstanding candidate in the shots on target market amongst the Freiburg forward players, Nils Peterson tops the SOT per game charts at a pretty modest 1.7 efforts. It's further down the betting that interests us in the shape of Christian Gunter.
The Freiburg skipper averages around a shot a game and takes free-kicks, so with a bit of luck if they get into a decent position, the ever-present full back can give us something to cheer about at 9/4 to get one or more shots on target, whilst the 11/1 to score anytime and 25/1 first goalscorer look appetising.
We're adding Ramy Bensebaini to get into the action with a shot on target to bring the Same Game Multi up to an eye-watering 125/1 chance, worth and extra £14 to your £1 stake than backing with Paddy Power.
As always, please bet responsibly and here's to another enjoyable weekend of Bundesliga action. Good luck!
