Tuesday Football Tips: JimmyThePunt's best bets
The games are coming thick and fast now and I have delved into my favourite markets to find four chunky selections for tonight's action.
A spot in the Carabao Cup Semi-finals awaits the victors of tonight's clash between Brentford and Newcastle.
It is a bit of a minefield trying to anticipate who will start for Newcastle, on one hand it is a Quarter-final and on the other the game comes amidst a hectic Christmas schedule. Steve Bruce won't want to burn out his first team regulars but a spot in the last four would be a timely boost for his side that have not won in two. The likes of Dwight Gayle, Andy Carroll and Jacob Murphy are all expected to start having only being warranted stints of game time in the EPL this season.
Thomas Frank's Brentford side will be looking to stretch their unbeaten run to 14 games this evening. The Bees last tasted defeat at the hands of Stoke back in October. The West Londoners have been spearheaded by former Toon striker Ivan Toney who has 16 goals to his name already this season. In the name of rotation, Frank may opt for Marcus Forss up-top at his expense though. He also has Ethan Pinnock and Christian Norgaard back at his disposal.
Serie A's pick of the action sees Juventus host Fiorentina. The Old Lady are unbeaten in their last 13 league matches and a win on their last game before the winter break will see them remain in touching distance of the Milan sides that currently sit at the top of the tree. Andrea Pirlo will be without midfielder Arthur this evening which leaves Andrien Rabiot and Rodrigo Bentancur to contest a spot alongside West McKennie and Aaron Ramsey.
My final section comes courtesy of La Liga's game between Real Valladolid and Barcelona. The hosts have shown signs of improvement over recent weeks and have only lost one of their last six. Since supremo Sergio Gonzalez Soriano's tactical tweak, the White and Violets attacking output has increased and one player's increase in shots per game has caught my eye.
Having not featured at all in the Magpies last EPL fixture, Jacob Murphy is expected to start at Brentford tonight. The ex-Wednesday loanee has been on the fringes of Bruce's squad this season, only featuring in 465 minutes of top flight football. Impressively however, Murphy has managed to be booked in two of his five league starts, a total only Jamal Lewis (4) and Issac Hayden (4) have bettered.
In his typically pragmatic fashion, Bruce has deployed Murphy in a slightly deeper, more defensive role this season. Predominately a right winger, Murphy had to settle for a spot at RWB in his limited opportunities. He has averaged 1.3 tackles per game (6th) and conceded an average of 1.8 fouls per in the games he has started (3rd). Most staggeringly though, he has only received seven cards over the course of his career- 285 games- and 28.6% of those have come this season! That means this season he has averaged a card in every 0.28 games in all competitions, where-as prior to this campaign he averaged one every 0.01 games!
It is also worth noting that he was awarded one of the cards this season for time wasting, given the nature of this tie that bodes well for the selection. At 9/1 the implied probability of this bet winning is 10%, yet this season he has been carded in almost 30% of his starts. The same bet is only 9/2 with Bet365.
The combination of Fiorentina abhorring Juve and the referee appointment makes me think that cards will be in the ascendency at the Allianz Stadium tonight.
The last time Viola faced Juventus in Turin, they accumulated four cards and in the reverse fixture last season they were awarded three. Tonight's referee- Federico La Parma- has brandished an average of 5.33Y and 0.33R in Serie A this season. Interestingly, the last two times he has taken charge of a Juventus game, the opposition has received a combined total of nine yellow cards!
My fancy for this fixture is Sofyan Amrabat. The Moroccan international has picked up three cards in his last five starts and tops the visitors rankings for fouls per game this season with an average of 2.1.
Tonight Amrabat will be anchoring Fiorentina's midfield, covering the likes of Ronaldo, Morata and co which is why William Hill's price of 11/5 takes appeal. Last season he received ten yellows and two red cards in 34 appearances.
Two of his most recent three cards have been the first to be shown in the game, so if you want something a little chunkier William Hill have him at 12/1 to be the first to go into the book.
Valladolid started the campaign playing a 4-2-3-1, however, they have looked much better since switching to a 4-4-2. When lining up in the former, they've averaged eight SpG and with the latter they have averaged 9.25 SpG, which is not an outstanding difference. However, midfielder Oscar Plano shots per game averages appear to be massively affected by what system he plays in.
Playing left midfield in a four, Plano has averaged 1.83 SpG hitting the following numbers; 3/3/3/0/2. Two shots has landed in four of his last five league starts, three- which is priced at 9/1 tonight- has landed in all three of his most recent games! When playing in a 4-2-3-1, Plano has averaged just 0.6 SpG (0/0/0/1/1) failing to hit tonight's shot line in all five of those games.
Given the fact that Valladolid salvaged a massive point away at Sevilla in their most recent game, Sergio may want to keep the same XI for tonight's fixture which would see Plano start LM of a 4-4-2. Valladolid should be playing in a 4-4-2 if any of the two following strikers to play; Guardiola, Wiessman or de Sousa. The latter two have started the last two league games.
If you want a more ambitious punt you can combine Plano to have three shots with Shelvey to have two shots on target at odds of 120/1 with Betfair.
Plano has registered three shots in his last three league starts. This season Shelvey has averaged 1.5 SpG and hit five shots on target in his last six appearances with two shots on target landing in a third of those games. In the last round of the EFL Cup Shelvey hit this line and scored.
As always though, please gamble responsibly.
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