Odds shown as:

Tuesday Football Tips: JimmyThePunt's best bets

Jonjo Shelvey features in JimmyThePunt's 120/1 longshot for Tuesday evening.
Jonjo Shelvey features in JimmyThePunt's 120/1 longshot for Tuesday evening.



The games are coming thick and fast now and I have delved into my favourite markets to find four chunky selections for tonight's action. 

A spot in the Carabao Cup Semi-finals awaits the victors of tonight's clash between Brentford and Newcastle.

It is a bit of a minefield trying to anticipate who will start for Newcastle, on one hand it is a Quarter-final and on the other the game comes amidst a hectic Christmas schedule. Steve Bruce won't want to burn out his first team regulars but a spot in the last four would be a timely boost for his side that have not won in two. The likes of Dwight Gayle, Andy Carroll and Jacob Murphy are all expected to start having only being warranted stints of game time in the EPL this season. 

Thomas Frank's Brentford side will be looking to stretch their unbeaten run to 14 games this evening. The Bees last tasted defeat at the hands of Stoke back in October. The West Londoners have been spearheaded by former Toon striker Ivan Toney who has 16 goals to his name already this season. In the name of rotation, Frank may opt for Marcus Forss up-top at his expense though. He also has Ethan Pinnock and Christian Norgaard back at his disposal. 

Serie A's pick of the action sees Juventus host Fiorentina. The Old Lady are unbeaten in their last 13 league matches and a win on their last game before the winter break will see them remain in touching distance of the Milan sides that currently sit at the top of the tree. Andrea Pirlo will be without midfielder Arthur this evening which leaves Andrien Rabiot and Rodrigo Bentancur to contest a spot alongside West McKennie and Aaron Ramsey. 

My final section comes courtesy of La Liga's game between Real Valladolid and Barcelona. The hosts have shown signs of improvement over recent weeks and have only lost one of their last six. Since supremo Sergio Gonzalez Soriano's tactical tweak, the White and Violets attacking output has increased and one player's increase in shots per game has caught my eye.

Brentford v Newcastle
Tue, 17:30
JimmyThePunt - Jacob Murphy to be carded
  • This season Murphy has averaged a card in every 0.28 games in all competitions, where-as prior to this campaign he averaged one every 0.01 games!
Odds correct as of 2020-12-22 12:40 Odds subject to change.

Having not featured at all in the Magpies last EPL fixture, Jacob Murphy is expected to start at Brentford tonight. The ex-Wednesday loanee has been on the fringes of Bruce's squad this season, only featuring in 465 minutes of top flight football. Impressively however, Murphy has managed to be booked in two of his five league starts, a total only Jamal Lewis (4) and Issac Hayden (4) have bettered. 

In his typically pragmatic fashion, Bruce has deployed Murphy in a slightly deeper, more defensive role this season. Predominately a right winger, Murphy had to settle for a spot at RWB in his limited opportunities. He has averaged 1.3 tackles per game (6th) and conceded an average of 1.8 fouls per in the games he has started (3rd). Most staggeringly though, he has only received seven cards over the course of his career- 285 games- and 28.6% of those have come this season! That means this season he has averaged a card in every 0.28 games in all competitions, where-as prior to this campaign he averaged one every 0.01 games!

It is also worth noting that he was awarded one of the cards this season for time wasting, given the nature of this tie that bodes well for the selection. At 9/1 the implied probability of this bet winning is 10%, yet this season he has been carded in almost 30% of his starts. The same bet is only 9/2 with Bet365.

Juventus v Fiorentina
Tue, 19:45
JimmyThePunt - Sofyan Amrabat to be carded
  • Picked up thee cards in his last five starts
  • Averaging 2.1 fouls per game this season
Odds correct as of 2020-12-22 12:40 Odds subject to change.

The combination of Fiorentina abhorring Juve and the referee appointment makes me think that cards will be in the ascendency at the Allianz Stadium tonight. 

The last time Viola faced Juventus in Turin, they accumulated four cards and in the reverse fixture last season they were awarded three. Tonight's referee- Federico La Parma- has brandished an average of 5.33Y and 0.33R in Serie A this season. Interestingly, the last two times he has taken charge of a Juventus game, the opposition has received a combined total of nine yellow cards! 

My fancy for this fixture is Sofyan Amrabat. The Moroccan international has picked up three cards in his last five starts and tops the visitors rankings for fouls per game this season with an average of 2.1. 

Tonight Amrabat will be anchoring Fiorentina's midfield, covering the likes of Ronaldo, Morata and co which is why William Hill's price of 11/5 takes appeal. Last season he received ten yellows and two red cards in 34 appearances. 

Two of his most recent three cards have been the first to be shown in the game, so if you want something a little chunkier William Hill have him at 12/1 to be the first to go into the book.

Today's Tips
Real Valladolid v Barcelona
Tue, 21:00
JimmyThePunt - Oscar Plano 2+ shots
  • Two shots has landed in four of his last five starts after a change in formation from the manager
Odds correct as of 2020-12-22 12:45 Odds subject to change.

Valladolid started the campaign playing a 4-2-3-1, however, they have looked much better since switching to a 4-4-2. When lining up in the former, they've averaged eight SpG and with the latter they have averaged 9.25 SpG, which is not an outstanding difference. However, midfielder Oscar Plano shots per game averages appear to be massively affected by what system he plays in.

Playing left midfield in a four, Plano has averaged 1.83 SpG hitting the following numbers; 3/3/3/0/2. Two shots has landed in four of his last five league starts, three- which is priced at 9/1 tonight- has landed in all three of his most recent games! When playing in a 4-2-3-1, Plano has averaged just 0.6 SpG (0/0/0/1/1) failing to hit tonight's shot line in all five of those games. 

Given the fact that Valladolid salvaged a massive point away at Sevilla in their most recent game, Sergio may want to keep the same XI for tonight's fixture which would see Plano start LM of a 4-4-2. Valladolid should be playing in a 4-4-2 if any of the two following strikers to play; Guardiola, Wiessman or de Sousa. The latter two have started the last two league games.

JimmyThePunt's Tuesday Longshot
Tue, 19:45
Shelvey 2+ shots on target, Plano 3+ shots
Plano has registered three shots on in his last three starts Jonjo Shelvey is averaging 1.5 shots per game this season and has five shots on target in his last six games with 2+ landing in a third of those games.
Odds correct as of 2020-12-22 12:50 Odds subject to change.

If you want a more ambitious punt you can combine Plano to have three shots with Shelvey to have two shots on target at odds of 120/1 with Betfair. 

Plano has registered three shots in his last three league starts. This season Shelvey has averaged 1.5 SpG and hit five shots on target in his last six appearances with two shots on target landing in a third of those games. In the last round of the EFL Cup Shelvey hit this line and scored. 

As always though, please gamble responsibly. 


Free Betting Offers
Advert Disclaimer
Bettingodds.com is a free online resource which endeavour to provide helpful and useful content and odds comparison to its visitors. Please be advised that Bettingodds.com accepts affiliate commission from the companies appearing on the site, and agreed commission levels impact the location and order in which the companies (and/or their products) are presented on the website. Any ratings that appear on this site is determined by our subjective opinion of the brand but also based on market share and reputation, each brand's conversion rates, commission paid to us and general consumer interest. Company listings on this page don't imply our endorsement. We do not feature all providers on the market. Except as expressly set forth in our terms and conditions, all statements and warranties regarding the information presented on this page are disclaimed. The information, including odds, which appear on this site is subject to change at any time.
Welcome Offer
#AD Bet £10 & Get £50 in Free Bets for new customers at bet365. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply.
Bet £10 Get £20 In Free Bets + £10 Casino Bonus
#AD New UK customers (Excluding NI) mobile only. £30 in FREE Bets (FB) as £20 in sports bets & a £10 casino bonus (CB). Min stake £10. Min odds Evs. FB applied on 1st settlement of any qualifying bet. FB 7 day expiry. 1 FB offer per customer, household & IP address only. Payment restrictions. 14 days to accept £10 CB, then active for 3 days. CB 5x wagering & max redeemable £100. Game restrictions apply. Cashed out/Free Bets won’t apply. 30 days to qualify. 18+. T&C's Apply. **18+. Prices subject to fluctuation and availability.  T&Cs apply
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
#AD 18+. Play Safe. New customers using Promo code R30 only, Min £10/€10 stake,  min odds 1/2, free bets paid as 3 x £10/€10, free bets credited after settlement of first qualifying bet, free bets will expire 30 days after the qualifying bet is placed, payment method/player/country restrictions apply.
Bet £20 & Get It Back As Cash If It Loses
#AD New customers only. Place your FIRST bet on any market at odds of min 2.0 (EVS) and if it loses we will refund your stake in CASH. Max refund for this offer is £20. Only deposits made using cards will qualify for this promotion. T&Cs apply, 18+ begambleaware.org
Bet £10 & Get £30 In Free Bets
#AD 18+ New Customer offer. Place a min £10 bet on the Sportsbook on odds of min 1/2 (1.5), get £30 in Free Bets. Rewards valid for 30 days. SMS verification required. Only deposits via cards will qualify. T&Cs apply. Please Gamble Responsibly.
Money back As A Bonus Up To £40 If Your First Bet Loses + £10 Casino
#AD 18+ begambleaware.org. New customers only. Min deposit £10. Money back as bonus if first sports bet loses. Wagering requirements: sportsbook 3x at min. odds of 1.40 (2/5), casino 50x. Unless forfeited the sportsbook bonus must be wagered before using the casino bonus. Bonus expires 7 days after opt-in. Visit Unibet.co.uk for full T&C's.
Bet £10 get £30 in Free Bets
#AD New customers on mobile only. 7 days to claim and stake £10 minimum bet at odds of 1.5 or greater to qualify. Free, void, cashed out or partially cashed out bets do not qualify. Max 3x £10 free bets credited on bet settlement. Free bets must be used on 4 or more selections with selection odds of 1.3 or greater. Free bets are non-withdrawable, and stake not returned with winnings. 7 day expiry. 18+BeGambleAware.org. T&Cs apply.
£30 Matched Free Bet if Your First Acca Loses + 50 Bonus Spins
#AD New UK customers only. Min Deposit: £5. Maximum Free Bet: £30. First bet on a Football or Horse Racing multiple with 3+ selections. Overall odds: 3.00 (2/1) or higher. Free Bets available upon settlement of the qualifying bet. This is offer is valid for 7 days from your new account being registered. 50 Bonus Spins credited on placement of qualifying Acca bet.50x bonus wagering applies as do weighting requirements, bonus Spins only available on selected games and expires 7 days after being awarded. Debit card deposits only (exclusions apply). 18+. BeGambleAware.org. Bet The Responsible Way. Full terms apply
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets + 100 Free Spins
#AD 18+ New customers only. Opt in, bet £10 at odds 2.00+ within 7 days, no cashout. Get 3x £10 Free Bets, set events at odds 2.00+. Plus 100 Free Spins on Big Bass Bonanza, no wagering. Free Bets and Spins expire in 7 days. Card payments only. T&Cs apply. Please gamble responsibly.
Double the odds, any sport, any bet, any odds!
#AD 18+ begambleaware.org Only valid for new registrations to Grosvenor Existing members do not qualify, Bet must be placed using real money in combination with the Odds Boost Token, Offer applies to Sport bets only. Max stake is £10. Each way bets are a maximum of £5 each way (£10 total). Customers have 60 days after registration to use the Odds Boost token. T&Cs apply.
100% Profit Boost up to £100 (Mobile Only)
#AD New UK customers only. Claim by placing a min deposit £10 via "My Offers" page within 30 days. Skrill/Neteller deposits excluded. 7 days to stake max £10 in-play. Max. extra winnings £100.T&C's apply, 18+ begambleaware.org
Bet £10 Get £10 In Free Bets (APP Only)
#AD New UK, IE & Malta customers only. Min £10/€10 first deposit using Debit Card. Place a bet of £10 at min odds of 1.5. Free bets expire in 90 days. Full T&Cs apply.  18+. BeGambleAware.org, T&Cs apply.
Bet £25 get £50 In Bonuses
#AD Place a qualifying £25 fixed odds bet at odds of 1/2 or greater and get £50 in bonuses 5 x £5 free fixed odds bets, 4 x free £5 spread bets + 50 free spins on Starburst. Qualifying bet cannot be placed in-play or cashed out early. T&Cs Apply. 18+ begambleaware.org
Bet £10 Get £40 in Bonuses
#AD New 18+ UK customers only. Register using the promo code WELCOME40, deposit and place first bet of £10+ on Sports (cumulative Evens+) within 7 days of registration. First bet must be on Sports. £30 in Free Bets and £10 in Free Spins (50x20p) credited within 10 hours of bet settlement. Free Bet stakes are not included in any returns. Bonuses have a 7-day expiry. Payment restrictions apply. SMS verification and/or Proof of I.D and address may be required. Full T&Cs apply.
Bet £10 get £15
#AD New customers only. 18+ begambleaware.org 1st Deposit, Min Deposit: £10, max £15 bonus, valid for 14 days, bets must be placed at a min. odds of 1/1 (2.00) or greater and be settled within 14 days of placement.T&C's apply.
Bet £10 get £10
#AD 18+ begambleaware.org, Welcome Bonus: This offer is for new customers only and is available once per household. Max. FreeBet amount: £10 Minimum Deposit and wagering on sport to activate the Free Bet is: £10 void/cancelled or cashed out bets do not count towards wagering to activate the free bet. Offer valid only to customers making a first deposit of £10 or more. T&Cs apply.
Bet £10 get £20
#AD New customers only, welcome bonus: 1st deposit, min deposit: £10, max £20 free bet valid for 14 days, bets must be placed at odds of 1/1 or greater and be settled within 14 days of placement. system bets are not eligible. Neteller, Skrill, and PayPal are not eligible. , 18+ begambleaware.org
50% Up To £50 Welcome Bonus
#AD 18+ begambleaware.org; New bettors get 50% of deposit up to £50; Once per household; Min deposit £15 (no Skrill/Neteller); Wager a total of 8 times deposit + bonus, with max qualifying bet stake equal to your initial bonus amount; Bonus expires after 60 days; Min odds of 4/5 on singles, or 2/5 per leg for acca; Some bet types excluded; See full terms.
Bet £10 & Get £30 In Free Bets + £10 Bonus
#AD Promo code: 30FB • Min deposit £10 • A qualifying bet is a ‘real money’ stake of at least £10 • Min odds 1/2 (1.50) • Free Bets credited upon qualifying bet settlement and expire after 7 days • Free Bet stakes not included in returns • Casino Bonus must be claimed within 7 days and expires after 14 days • To withdraw any winnings from the Casino Bonus, wager the Bonus amount 40 times within 14 days • Withdrawal restrictions, payment methods, country & Full T&Cs apply. 18+ & Begambleaware
£35 Free Bet + 10 Free Spins
If your account has Sportsbook losses at the end of your first day's betting, QuinnBet will refund 50% of your losses as a Free Bet up to £35 (min 3 bets) Plus 10 Free Spins. Even if your account is up, you're guaranteed a £5 Free Bet Plus 10 Free Spins provided you place at least 1 bet of £10 or greater at the minimum odds. T&Cs apply | 18+ New UK Customers Only | BeGambleAware.org