
Fiorentina vs. West Ham Betting Tips: Two data-driven tips for the Europa Conference League Final

West Ham have the chance to win their first European trophy since 1965 on Wednesday as they take on Fiorentina in the final of the Europa Conference League. Scott Thornton is on hand with his best bets including a 6/1 poke.
The Hammers have endured a tough domestic campaign and were embroiled in a relegation scrap for much of the season. David Moyes has faced heavy scrutiny with the team failing to live up the standards set in the previous two seasons. However, lifting the trophy on Wednesday night would eclipse their other achievements and earn them a spot in Europe for next season.
This is also Fiorentina’s only chance of playing continental football next season. They finished 8th in Serie A as they struggled for consistency under Vincenzo Italiano this season. They narrowly edged past Basel in the last round but any of their shortcomings this season would be quickly forgotten if they are victorious here.
Fiorentina vs West Ham Tips
Fiorentina conceded an average of 1.13 goals per game in Serie A this season. The joint 7th fewest in the league. However, they have conceded the fewest shots of any Italian side with their opponents averaging 9.11 shots a match. This is 0.5 shots per game fewer than Napoli who won the title with ease. In the Europa Conference League, Italiano’s men are conceding just 6.36 shots per game so expect them to keep it tight in the final.
West Ham are averaging 12.47 shots per game in the Premier League this campaign. This is just below the league average of 12.64. The Hammers are unlikely to take risks early on and this will hopefully lead to very few shots in the first half. They have had an average of just 10.43 shots per game in their European matches away from London this season.
In terms of fouls, West Ham’s Conference League have seen 19.83 per game. This is significantly lower than the average of 22.13 across the tournament since the start of the group stages. There have been 28 free kicks or fewer in all of the Hammers knockout matches in this competition this season and the average per knockout match has been around 21.
Fiorentina’s matches in this competition are averaging 23 fouls per game. The free kick market also includes fouls but the line has been set a little too high for this game. The referee in charge of this one is Carlos Del Cerro Grande. He has taken charge of one Fiorentina game this season and gave just 17 fouls. He is yet to officiate West Ham.
For our longer odds bet we are taking the same angles as the main bet but with decreased lines. The data for both teams suggests these lower lines are capable of landing. The opposition has had 11 shots or more in just one of Fiorentina’s eight knockout matches.
We are also going to back over one goal in the match. Fiorentina’s Conference league matches this season are averaging 3.38 goals per game. West Ham’s matches in this tournament are averaging 2.83.