Everton vs Liverpool Odds: Side with Doucoure in the shots market

The first Merseyside derby of the season sees Everton play host to their local rivals on Wednesday evening. 

Despite being the side making the short trip across the park, Liverpool are priced up as odds on favourites to win here at around 9/25 giving them a 73.5% implied chance of victory. Looking at the form table, it is not hard to understand why though, these sides are literally chalk and cheese. 

No side has picked up fewer points (1) than Everton over the last six topflight games, they have shipped 12 goals in that time with their only point coming in a 0-0 stalemate in Conte’s first game at the helm of Spurs. West Ham, Wolves, Man City, and Brentford have all beaten them in that time, however, the biggest embarrassment came as Watford put five past them in their own backyard, former striker Joshua King scored a hat-trick that afternoon. 

Liverpool head to Goodison having taken 13 league points from a possible 18, a tally only bested by City and Chelsea over the same six-game period. Their only defeat, in all competitions, in that time was a controversial one at the London Stadium, however, victories over Atleti and Porto in the UCL have also come in this period as they secured UCL qualification with two games to spare. 

The hosts are amidst an injury crisis which sees Yerry Mina, Andre Gomes, Dominic Calvert-Lewin, and Tom Davies all side-lined with injury. Mason Holgate is suspended for this fixture but Richarlison is back available and expected to lead the line. Elsewhere, Demarai Gray was fit enough to feature off the bench in Everton’s last game so should start here. 

Jürgen Klopp is expected to shuffle his deck slightly from the side that cruised to a 4-0 victory over Southampton last time out. Joel Matip should come in for Ibrahima Konate and Thiago could drop out for Oxlade-Chamberlain. 

In a derby, form counts for very little, which is lucky for Everton as they have none coming into this fixture. However, I do think it gives us scope for some value with Liverpool heavy favourites. 

Everton scored four goals in the two games vs Liverpool last season as they secured the same amount of points in their games vs the Reds. Granted, they have changed managers since then and are missing some key players for this one but with a large part of the squad remaining the same, they will draw confidence from last season's success. 

This campaign, they have failed to score in five of their league games (38%), however, they generated a combined xG of 4.13 in those 450 minutes of football, which suggests that they were desperately unfortunate not to score at least once. 

The visitors' attacking exploits have been outrageous this season. They have scored the most goals of any side in the division (39), which is eight more than the second-highest total and an average of exactly three a game. Staggeringly, three of the league's top four goalscorers also play for the Reds as Salah, Mane, and Jota have bagged 25 goals between them. Therefore, I do not think the visitors will have any trouble finding the net. 

It is worth pointing out that despite only conceding eleven EPL goals, they have shipped an xGA of 15.2. Ultimately, the underlying data suggests that Everton have been unfortunate not to score more this season, whilst Liverpool have been fortunate not to ship more. I would advise 1.5 points on this. 

Only Demarai Gray (1.9) has a higher shots per game average than Abdoulaye Doucouré for Everton this season. The midfielder has had a total of 16 shots in nine topflight starts, averaging 1.78 per 90. 

He has had at least two shots in 78% of his EPL starts this season, hitting this line in all his last four appearances. 

A caveat to this angle is that only Man City and Chelsea have conceded fewer shots per game then Liverpool (9.30). It is also worth noting that Doucoure has only managed a shot in each of his two appearances vs Liverpool for Everton. However, given the start he has made to the season, I do not think you can turn your nose up at Betfair’s price of 16/5 for him to have two shots. 

Richarlison is back available for this clash. He was suspended for Everton’s last game as he has accumulated five yellow cards this season and I expect him to be back amongst them in this derby. 

He received a straight red card when these sides last met at this ground following a horrific tackle on Thiago. In the most recent domestic meeting between these sides at Anfield, he scored his side's opener, highlighting the fact that he is never far away from the action in this game. 

Combining him to score and be booked at a tasty price provides a bit of interest here. I’ll be having half a point on it. 

Best of luck if you are backing any of these selections and please remember to gamble responsibly.