Eurovision 2024 Odds & Betting Preview: Is now the time to bet?
Eurovision is now just a few months away and our expert EurovisionTom has provided us with his early thoughts on the market and has answered a few key questions ahead of the 2024 event.
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Eurovision 2024 season is upon us
We’ve only just begun 2024, but the Eurovision 2024 season is well and truly in full swing! We’ve had an unprecedented amount of artists and songs reveals this season. Of the 37 competing countries, we already know nine artists, three competing songs and the songs of eleven other National Final lineups.
Is now a good time to start betting?
But with so few songs released right now, is it a good time to bet? If you’re brave and want a bargain, then yes! Once songs are released, it’s a mad flurry to get a bet in before the odds drop. For example, you could get Sweden at 10-1 this time last year, whereas once their song snippet and staging concept was revealed, their odds dropped to 8/5 within 48 hours and never went longer. So this early period represents a time to make an educated gamble on who could do well.
What information can we use now?
The reality is that some countries are just consistently better at Eurovision than others.
If we take the average rankings from every country that has competed in the last 10 years, it may not surprise you to learn that top of those rankings would be Sweden, who will be this year’s hosts in Malmö in May. They’ve been Top 7 in eight of the last ten years. Keep in mind that during that same period, eleven countries were not able to score a single Top 7 finish, and you get an idea of how dominant and consistent Sweden are.
However, how often do hosts win? The last winning host was in 1994, when Ireland won with “Rock ‘N Roll Kids” in Dublin. In my opinion, part of the reason why no host has won since then is the increased competitiveness within the contest, but also that the resources of the host broadcaster are already stretched out from the cost of hosting. Sweden has a lot of big names announced for their National Final Melodifestivalen, which will have 5 weekly Semi-finals starting from February 3rd. The current favorites to win are Markus & Martinus, who were last year’s runners up and will perform in the final semi-final on March 2nd. Personally, I am expecting another Top 10 finish for Sweden, but not back-to-back wins.
Italy is in second, also with eight Top 7 finishes in the last 10 years. The Sanremo Music Festival, a prestigious event entering its 74th edition, will choose their song between 6-9th February. The potential winning song will be débuted live on either the 6th or 7th of February. This more concise format makes it a much easier market to track than Sweden’s, where the song releases are spread out.
Another powerhouse country is Ukraine, who rank 3rd in the last 10 years. Despite missing 2 contests, they’ve still racked up six Top 6 finishes. The 11 songs for their National Final have been released.
Between these 3 countries, we have 5 wins in the last 10 years. This is why these 3 countries are currently making up the 3rd, 4th and 5th in the odds, despite no songs being released yet.
So who is currently number 1 in the betting then?
The current number 1 is the UK, who shot up from 14th to 1st in the winner’s odds after announcing Olly Alexander as their artist on primetime British TV. The UK has sent number 1 selling album artists before, but Olly’s 2022 number 1 album is significantly closer to his participation than those predecessors.
Despite a disappointing 25th place this year, there has been a noticeable shift in the UK’s motivation. There’s a consensus in the community that the UK could be entering a renaissance in the contest. There is no release date for his song yet, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the British delegation bucked the trend of releasing their song in March, and instead released it earlier in February.
Second in the outright winner is currently Israel. My assessment of this is that with limited information, some punters are expecting that Israel may receive an increased televote score due to recent events. If you keep in mind that recent Eurovision winners receive an average of ~55% of their final score from the televote, this could be significant. The televote is unique as well in that you can vote for someone but not against.
Solidarity alone is not enough to win though. Claims that Ukraine only won in 2022 due to sympathy are oversimplified. Even if you remove Ukraine’s two results since the 2022 invasion, they would still be 4th in the overall rankings since 2013. Add on that Ukraine are the only country in the contest with a 100% qualification record, and a clear pattern exists of Ukraine already being one of the strongest countries in Eurovision. Their 2022 song was already 3rd in the odds prior to the February 2022 invasion. Israel’s record is not as strong as Ukraine’s; however we do know that the Israeli delegation are capable of a strong result, winning the 2018 contest and coming 3rd this year.
Outside of the big hitters, who else has momentum?
At this early stage, my dark horses for this year are Norway, Finland and Serbia.
Despite not being in the top 3 since they won in 2009, Norway have otherwise lived in the Top 10, with their eight Top 10 finishes rivaling Sweden and Italy. If this type of consistency continues, it’s inevitable that they get their next win soon. However, Norway’s songs have been released and there is no obvious winner there, although a live performance could change that.
Since 2020, Finland have massively revamped their selection system, culminating in a 2nd place finish this year and their National Final becoming one of the most anticipated in the community. Keep an eye out for the 7 songs in the 2024 edition of their national final, which are currently being released day by day since January 11th.
Within the Balkans, Serbia are the country with the best potential in my opinion. Their National final, PZE, has been evolving rapidly over the last 6 years, and they had a record amount of song submissions this year. Serbia are one of the few countries who are willing to take a risk, something I believe to be vital to win in modern Eurovision. Serbia’s new approach paid off in 2022 with their edgy, avant-garde song placing 5th, although this year they qualified but then only came 24th. Risks aren’t always going to pay off, but a country is unlikely to be in discussion to win the contest if they don’t take them. Their songs will be released January 25th.
What other information do we have?
France have already released their song and it’s a strong contender to win the jury this year.
The Songs for 11 National Finals in total are out. Keep an eye out for one of Estonia’s entries, a song by 5Miinust x Puuluup, which could do well with the televote if it wins. Spain could also be a contender if they chose St Pedro., or if one of their other songs elevates with the live performance. There is also some hype for some of the songs from Ukraine, Croatia & Latvia. If you want to see a review of each National final’s song, I cover these on my channel.
If you want more information about betting odds, I have made an Odds Playlist on my Eurovision channel, where I will upload future odds videos to: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLBNixB2wbao8RSKmmunJ_bgGjDpQqWIXm .
If you want any more general Eurovision Analysis, my Youtube Channel is at www.youtube.com/@ESCTom
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