European Football Tips: Goretzka features in our trio of tips
With a feast of football taking place on the continent on Saturday I have put the cynosures in the Bundesliga and La Liga under the microscope.
The first selection - a 5/1 goalscorer - comes courtesy of Werder Bremen’s clash with Bayern Munich. The visitors come into this one fresh of their victory in Die Klassiker, during which their Polish talisman bagged a hat-trick- as he out scored the young contender Erling Haaland - which has taken his total for the season to 31 from just 23 appearances. The hosts have been in fine form as of late, having only lost one of their last eight, and could prove worthy opponents for the Champions once more. Bayern could only manage a draw in the reverse fixture and one goal has been the difference in four of these sides previous five head to heads.
The pick of Saturday's action in Spain sees Real Madrid welcome Elche at 15:15. Victory for the current La Liga champions will see them move to within three points of leaders Atleti, who sit at the top of the tree on 62 points. Despite the fact that Los Blancos captain Sergio Ramos and Edan Hazard have returned to full training, they are unlikely to be risked here as Zinedine Zidane casts an eye to their UCL game against Atalanta on Tuesday.
My final selection sees us head back to Germany for the 17:30 clash between Borussia Dortmund and Hertha Berlin. The hosts currently lie in sixth place in the Bundesliga proceedings, four points adrift of a Champions League spot. They lock horns with a side looking to end a winless run that stretches back nine domestic games, however, the bookies clearly do not fancy them pricing Hertha at 11/2 to win here.
Best of luck if you are backing any of these selections and please remember to gamble responsibly.
Leon Goretzka scored his ninth goal of the campaign in his side's Die Klassiker triumph last weekend. On that day he was priced at 6/1, therefore, I am surprised to see him available at similar odds as Bayern travel to lowly Werder Bremen. It is worth noting that Bayern’s midfielder is as short as 2/1 with Betfair and Paddy Power to score anytime!
Goretzka has attempted at least one shot in his last seven Bundesliga appearances. During which time he has accumulated 20 shots, hitting the target in six of those games, scoring twice and accumulating an xG of 1.62.
In their last six meetings with Bayern, the hosts have never managed to keep them out as they have shipped 15 goals! It is worth noting that Werder Bremen have conceded just 33 goals this campaign, however, they are facing the league's most prolific goalscorers. Therefore, I think at the prices available, Goretzka is a valuable play.
With seven cards to his name in La Liga this campaign, no Elche player has accumulated more cards then Iván Marcone. The Argentinian defensive midfielder all tops their charts in terms of defensive output as he averages 2.4 tackles, 1.1 interceptions and 1.1 fouls per game. This season he has started 32 games- for Elche in La Liga and Boca Juniors in the Superliga- during which time he has managed to receive 14 yellows and one red card!
Marcrone has picked up three cards in twice as many domestic starts recently, including one in a similar fixture to this one against Sevilla. You would expect him to be put through his paces again vs Real Madrid. Tomorrow he will be covering the likes of Kroos, Casemiro and Modric in midfield. The trio have drawn an average of 3.6 fouls per game as at least one of the opposition's central midfielders has been cautioned in four of Real’s last five games!
It is also worth noting that the referee for this one is Jorge Figueroa Vázquez. The Spanish whistleblower has brandished an average of 4.18Y and 0.36R per game in La Liga this season. The last game he took charge of saw seven yellows and a red card!
It looks as though Matteo Guendouzi is expected to get the nod in CAM for Hertha Berlin on Saturday. The young Frenchman came on at HT in Hertha’s last game and impressed playing in central midfield against Augsburg. Despite only playing a half, he had two attempts, both of which were goalbound.
As a CM or CAM, the ex-Arsenal man has averaged one shot per game in his last seven starts, hitting this line twice. Whilst that does not look two impressive, it is worth noting that Guendouzi has been in and out of the squad as he has struggled to hold down a starting spot. After coming on and impressing in his last game, he will be more keen then ever to take the opportunity- if he is given it- against Dortmund and this could see him pick up where he left off in terms of offensive output.
