Odds shown as:

European Football Tips: Back Pjanic to find the target against Atletico

European Football Tips: Get behind Pjanic to test Oblak this weekend
European Football Tips: Get behind Pjanic to test Oblak this weekend

With the last of this year's international breaks wrapped up, my attentions are re-devoted to the continent's elite footballing action. For this weekends tips, I've put the cynosures of Ligue One, Serie A and La Liga under the microscope and found three enticing angles priced at 7/2, 2/1 and 80/1. 

Andre Belotti's 29th minute booking last week ensured that we've had at least one winner from each of my first three BettingOdds.com articles and at 6/1 it was the chunkiest coup to date. I'm hoping for more of the same this weekend. 

My NAP comes courtesy La Liga's heavyweight clash at the Wanda Metropolitano between Atletico Madrid and Barcelona. Despite their superior league position, the hosts are priced around a shade under 2/1 with most bookies meaning the implied probability of a home victory is 34%. 

Today's football tips

This may be a consequence of their lengthy list of absentees; Luis Suarez's positive COVID test means he won't be able to reek havoc against his former club, Lucas Torreira is also unavailable for the same reason. Hector Herrera and Sime Vrsaljko have both been ruled out with injuries but Diego Costa could overcome a hamstring issue in time. 

For Barcelona, Sergio Busquets is out with a sprained knee, Miralem Pjanic should replace him at CDM. Lionel Messi is also set to return to the starting XI after being benched in Barca's previous fixture. It's fair to say the Argentinian maestro loves playing Simeone's side; no player has scored more than his 12 goals in the 17 appearances he has made vs Atleti during his compatriots stint as gaffer. 

My longshot - a 79/1 booking treble - commences at 8pm on Friday as the two riches clubs in the land duel in the Billionaires' Playground. PSG have a lot of injuries to contend with for their trip to the South of France will have to make do without Verratti, Draxler, Gueye and Icardi, however Tuchel is confident Neymar will play. Monaco will also be hindered by the absence of their top goalscorer Ben Yedder and first choice keeper Lecomte. 

Fri, 20:00
Monaco v PSG - Neymar, Djibril Sidibe and Sofiane Diop to be carded
  • Neymar has 3 cards in 6 appearances this season. 
  • Sidibe booked on his last start as a right back, averages 1.5 fouls per game. 
  • Diop booked in 1/3 of starts this season, including his most recent appearance.
  • Same bet is just 45/1 with William Hill
Odds correct as of 2020-11-20 16:20 Odds subject to change.

Neymar is expected to start his first Ligue 1 game in nearly a month and I'm hoping for fireworks. He's received two yellows and a red in his six appearances for PSG this season, all off which for arguments. Given the fact that he has been fouled 27 times- an averaged of 5.25 per game in Ligue One- it is no surprise he retaliates. 

His opposite number should be Djibril Sidibe. This season he has averaged 1.5 fouls per game and was booked in his last appearance at right back. Sofiane Diop is expected to play in front of him for Monaco on the right side of midfield. Diop has been booked in a third of the league games he's started in, averaging 1.3 fouls. It's also worth noting in his most recent appearance he was booked. He is as short as 31/20 for a card elsewhere. 

The man with the whistle is Clement Turpin. He's took charge of four Ligue One fixtures this term, awarding ten yellows and three reds. He's already ref'd both these sides this season and booked Diop- Sidibe and Neymar didn't play for their respective sides- brandishing seven yellows and a red. 

Jimmy The Punt's Weekend Tips
Sat, 20:00
Atletico Madrid v Barcelona - Miralem Pjanic 1+ SoT
  • Pjanic registered an SoT in 33% of starts this season. 
  • 72% of his shots come from outside the box and Atletico conceded 58% of their shots from range vs Barca over their last four games. 
  • Keen to impress on his La Liga debut
Odds correct as of 2020-11-20 16:20 Odds subject to change.

With Busquets sidelined it looks like Pjanic's first league start is finally nigh. In his four domestic cameos to date, the Bosnian international has averaged 3.91 shots per 90 minutes and during his only substation appearance of note - 45 minutes vs Deportivo Alaves - he registered a shot on target. He has been a regular starter in the Champions League though, where he's averaged 0.7 shots per game and had a SoT the only time he lasted the duration.

Over the last seven seasons, 72% of Pjanic's shots have come from outside the box, which bodes well for this fixture given how Simone is anticipated to set out his stall. It comes as no surprise that 41% of the shots Los Colchoneros have conceded this season have come from outside the box and almost half of the shots they conceded last season (48%) did so as well.

It is also worth noting that 58% of the shots Barca have registered vs Atletico Madrid over the last two seasons came from deep. Therefore, as the statistics show, Simione's set up encourages shots from range which coincidentally is prime Pjanic territory.

At 7/2, the implied probability of this bet landing is 22.2%. However, Pjanic has registered an SoT in four of the 13 appearances he has made for club and country this season, with this bet landing in 33% of the games he's started. Elsewhere, he is priced consistently shorter; Ladbrokes have him at 14/5 and Sky Bet have him at 21/10. 

It is also worth noting that he will be eager to impress. He turned down a more illustrious move to PSG for the allure of playing for the Blaugrana alongside Messi, therefore he will be looking to stamp his authority on this fixture to keep Busquets out of the side.  

Sun, 19:45
Napoli v AC Milan - Fabian Ruiz 1+ SoT
  • Fabian Ruiz should start in a more advanced role
  • He is only 5/4 for an SoT with Ladbrokes
Odds correct as of 2020-11-20 17:15 Odds subject to change.

Averaging 1.3 shots per game, Ruiz has the highest average of any midfielder at Napoli. In his six Serie A  appearances, he has registered six shots- three hit the target- with an SoT landing twice.

The most important thing with this angle though is that due to injuries, Gattuso may be forced to shuffle his deck. This could see the Blues revert back to the 4-3-3 they deployed earlier on in the season and this would mean Ruiz switches from the holding midfielder in a two, to the right side of a midfield field three. In his last start in this system, Ruiz accumulated four shots showing he is granted greater attacking freedom in this role. 

Another interesting thing about Ruiz's price of 2/1 is how it compares to others who operate in a similar role. Zilinski- another Napoli midfielder- has registered just two shots all season but is evens to have an SoT on Sunday. Milan's holding midfielder Kessie has also registered three shots on target this season- one from the spot- yet is also shorter than Ruiz priced at 13/10. It is also worth noting that Ladbrokes have Fabian Ruiz at just 5/4 to register a shot on target. 

Free betting offers
Advert Disclaimer
Bettingodds.com is a free online resource which endeavour to provide helpful and useful content and odds comparison to its visitors. Please be advised that Bettingodds.com accepts affiliate commission from the companies appearing on the site, and agreed commission levels impact the location and order in which the companies (and/or their products) are presented on the website. Any ratings that appear on this site is determined by our subjective opinion of the brand but also based on market share and reputation, each brand's conversion rates, commission paid to us and general consumer interest. Company listings on this page don't imply our endorsement. We do not feature all providers on the market. Except as expressly set forth in our terms and conditions, all statements and warranties regarding the information presented on this page are disclaimed. The information, including odds, which appear on this site is subject to change at any time.
£20 Risk Free Bet - Refunded In CASH On Losing Bets (APP Only)
#AD New customers only. Deposit £20 using card or Trustly. Up to your first £20 of losses will be refunded as CASH within 24 hours of qualifying bet having been settled. T&Cs apply
Bet £10 Get £40 in Free Bets
#Ad. 18+ Playsafe. New customers using promo code M40 only. 1x per customer. Min £/€10 bet. Min odds 1/2 (1.5). Free bets of 2 x £/€15 issued after first qualifying bet settles. Max £/€10 Bonus. 35x wagering requirement. Max redeemable bonus: £25. Casino bonus expires after 72 hours. UK & Eire only. Additional T&Cs, including free-bet, game, location, payment method and stake contributions apply. See full terms below 18+ begambleaware.org
Welcome Offer
#AD Open Account Offer. Up to £100 in Bet Credits for new customers at bet365. Min deposit £5. Bet Credits available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply. The bonus code ‘100BET365’ can be used during registration, but does not change the offer amount in any way. 18+ begambleaware.org.
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets + 100 Free Spins
#AD 18+ New customers only. Opt in, bet £10 at odds 2.00+ within 7 days, no cashout. Get 3x £10 Free Bets, set events at odds 2.00+. Plus 100 Free Spins, no wagering. Free Bets and Spins expire in 7 days. Card payments only. T&Cs apply, see below. Please gamble responsibly.
Bet £10 Get £30 + 30 Free Spins
#AD New UK & NI customers only. Promo code SPORTS60. Deposit and place first sports bet of £10+ in one transaction, at odds of Evens (2.0)+, settled within 7 days of registration. First bet must be on Sports. £30 in Free Bets credited within 48 hours of bet settlement. 7-day expiry. Payment restrictions apply. SMS validation may be required. Max 30 Free Spins on Blue Wizard at £0.10 per spin. 7-day expiry. Full T&Cs apply.
£20 Risk Free First Bet Money Back In Cash
#Ad. New customers only. Place your FIRST bet on any Sportsbook market and if it loses we will refund your stake in CASH. Max refund for this offer is £/£20. T&Cs apply.
Get Up To £100 In Free Bets
#AD New customer offer. Place 5 x £10 or more bets to receive £20 in free bets. Repeat up to 5 times to receive maximum £100 bonus. Min odds 1/2 (1.5). Exchange bets excluded. Payment restrictions apply. T&Cs apply.
Bet £10 Get £20 In Free Bets
#AD. New members. £10 min deposit & bet on sportsbook, placed & settled at 1.5 min odds within 14 days of sign-up. Win part of E/W bets. 2 non-withdrawable £10 Free Bet Tokens: accept in 7 days, valid for 7 days from acceptance (ex. E/Ws & Multiples), stakes not returned. Click here for Rules & Exclusions. Bet Responsibly. BeGambleAware.org. 18+
Bet £10 Get £20 In Free Bets
#AD Min stake £10. Min odds 1/2 (1.5). First bet only. Free bets expire in 7 days. Cashed out bets won’t apply. Payment method restrictions. Online UK customers only. 30 days to qualify for £20 in Free Bets. 18+. T&Cs apply
Bet £10 Get £30 Free Bets + £10 Casino Bonus
#AD Minimum deposit of £10 using deposit code 30F - A qualifying bet is a ‘real money’ stake of at least £10 placed on any sports market - Minimum odds of 1/2 (1.5) - Free bets credited upon qualifying bet settlement and expire after 7 days - Free bet stakes not included in returns - Casino Bonus must be claimed within 7 days • To withdraw bonus/related wins, wager bonus amount x40 within 14 days • Wagering req. vary by game • Withdrawal restrictions and Full T&C’s apply. 18+ begambleaware.org

£20 Risk Free Bet - Refunded In CASH On Losing Bets (APP Only)

#AD New customers only. Deposit £20 using card or Trustly. Up to your first £20 of losses will be refunded as CASH within 24 hours of qualifying bet having been settled. T&Cs apply

Money Back As Cash Up To £50 If Any Of Your First 5 Bets Lose

#Ad. 18+ Playsafe. Place 5 x £10 Sportsbook bets on Football and get money back as cash if any lose. Maximum refund per qualifying bet is £10, x5 refunds available. Payment restrictions apply. T&Cs apply. 18+ begambleaware.org

Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets + 100 Free Spins

#AD 18+ New customers only. Opt in, bet £10 at odds 2.00+ within 7 days, no cashout. Get 3x £10 Free Bets, set events at odds 2.00+. Plus 100 Free Spins, no wagering. Free Bets and Spins expire in 7 days. Card payments only. T&Cs apply, see below. Please gamble responsibly.