Europa League Tips: Three picks across games at Napoli, Celtic and Spurs
There's some thrilling looking fixtures in the Europa League as 2020's group stages bids us its final farewell. I've found three fancies from the shots on target and cards market priced at 4/1, 11/2 and 27/1.
My NAP comes courtesy of Napoli's game with Real Sociedad in what will be a thrilling climax to Group F. Arguably the game of the round, MD6 is shrouded with jeopardy as qualification is not guaranteed for any of the three sides contesting it. Following Napoli's draw with AZ in their last fixture, a win or draw at the Diego Armondo Maradona Stadium will be enough to see them progress to the next round. Real Sociedad must better AZ's result in Croatia!
My second selection comes via Scotland as Celtic welcome Lille. The hosts will be hopeful of ending a five game win-less streak whilst victory for the Frenchside will see them top the group. Celtic can be backed at around 21/10 which suggests their expected chance of winning is 32%, however, this team has only won 25% of their games priced at these odds. With Neil Lennon's sides fate in this competition already sealed, he'll be looking to rotate which opens up potential for value in the card markets.
My longshot combines my second best with another booking selection for Tottenham's clash with Royal Antwerp. Top spot in Group J is up for grab in North London on Thursday night and Jose will no doubt be seeking vengeance as his side succumbed to a 1-0 defeat in the reverse fixture. The special one questioned the attitude of his side following that game- he was also bemused with their 3-3 draw to LASK in their last fixture in this competition- so expect a rallied Spurs side for this one.
- Averaging over two shots per game.
- Averaging 2.75 shots per games he's started.
- With top scorer Oyarzabal injured the impetus is on Portu to lead the line.
With the onus very much on the Spaniards to come out and get a victory I was shocked to find that one of their frontrunners- in terms of shots per game- is even money to attempt two shots.
Portu has averaged 2.2 SpG in the UEL this season- only Oyarzabal (2.6) and Isak (2.6) have a greater average then him- however, if you only include games he has started this figure rises to 2.75! The bet has landed in all of Portu's four European starts, including the reverse fixture!
I wouldn't put anyone of the higher line of three shots (10/3) and four shots (9/1) as the former has landed in two of his UEL starts and the latter in a quarter of them!
With key men Oyarzabal and David Silva sidelined the impetus will fall to La Real's other attackers to take the game by the scruff of the neck and I expect Portu to spearhead this attack. Gattuso's men have a point to protect and in they will protect it in typical Italian style. This will invite lots of pressure and consequently lots of shots!
- Turnbull has being booked in 2/6 starts this season.
- He will be covering Lille's most dangerous players; Yacizi, David and Bamba.
- Implied probability of the odds is half that of hat it should be according to this seasons stats!
Despite The Bhoys board showing their uncompromising support for Neil Lennon, Celtic's boss will no doubt still be feeling the pressure and will not want to slip further down the ascendency in the Scottish Premiership. Therefore, the Hoops' supremo may want to keep his dearest fresh for Sunday's trip to Kilmarnock and this could see David Turnbull make his European debut in the middle of the park.
The ex-Motherwell man has started six times domestically and had his name taken in a third of those, during which he has committed more fouls (5) then he has completed tackles (3)! At odds of 11/2 the implied probability of this happening is 15.4% yet as just mentioned, he has received a card in 33.3% of his starts already this season.
Lennon took a jab at Turnbull following their 1-1 draw top St Johnstone claiming his fitness is not good enough. I sincerely hope this is not true as he will have his work cut out against a tricky Lille attack.
Turnbull is expected to be covering the likes of Jonathon David, Jonathon Bamba and Yusuf Yacizi. The latter has been a thorn in the side of many European opponents this season; he has scored the most goals of any player (6) and is a nightmare to track as he ghosts into the half spaces. It is also worth noting that no player has drawn more fouls per game for Lille than his compadre up-top; Jonathon David (3). Turnbull won't just be concerned with what is going on behind him, however, as he will also have Lille's their most dangerous to content with in front of him, left midfielder Bamba. The Frenchman has being fouled an average of 1.8 times this season and dispossessed 2.45 per game.
This season, only the entirety of AC Milan's central midfielders avoided a booking in their game vs Lille at the San Siro. Apart from them, at least one CM has being booked vs Les Dogues and right sided midfielders have conceded an average of 1.8 fouls vs Lille in the UEL this season.
The man with the whistle of this one is Fabio Verissimo who has averaged 4.5Y and 0.5R cards per game this season.
- Seck was booked in the reverse fixture (Spurs v Antwerp).
- He has the second highest fouls pG average in the UEL for Antwerp.
- Lucas Moura is expected to be his direct opponent.
For my longshot I have combined my second best bet with another fancy from the Spurs game. Given the result in the reverse fixture, I'd expect Spurs to be out of the blocks quickly tomorrow. This is not ideal for Antwerp's backline and I particularly fear for their right sided centre half; Adoulaye Seck.
For Antwerp in the UEL, only one player has averaged more fouls then Seck's two per game. In the reverse fixture it took him just 20 minutes to have his name taken as he struggled to contain Spurs' front-line. He went on to commit a total of four fouls that game. For those interested, Seck is 16/1 to be carded first tomorrow.
Antwerp usually line up with a back three with Seck RCB and this would pit him directly against Lucas Moura. The Brazilian possesses blistering pace and has averaged 1.6 dribbles per game in the UEL this season. He drew a yellow card from the only RCB he has faced in Spurs' most recent game vs LASK!
This longshot is a price play so please remember to gamble responsibly!
