England vs Finland Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips: 5/1 fancy featuring Harry Kane

England take the field at Wembley on Tuesday night when they square off against Finland in the Nations League, live on ITV1 at 7.45pm.

England vs Finland Match Preview

The FA haven’t decided on a permanent successor for Gareth Southgate but the door is seemingly open for Lee Carsley.

The Three Lions stormed to a two-goal lead in their last match against the Republic of Ireland. Much of the pre-match noise was regarding the manager’s reluctance to sing the national anthem but the quality of the performance was the focus following the win. Declan Rice and Jack Grealish, two players who have represented Ireland, grabbed the goals and both will likely feature here.

Harry Kane is set to win his 100th cap for England. He spoke about how he was disappointed with his performances at the European Championships ahead of England: last game and will be keen to mark this occasion with a goal.

Finland succumbed to a three-goal defeat at the hands of Greece. They are huge underdogs for this game and it’s difficult to envisage the away side causing too many problems.

England have long favoured a possession-hungry approach and it was even more evident in Lee Carsley’s first game as boss.

The team’s ability to evade the opposition press and win the ball back high up the field meant that the Republic of Ireland seldom touched the ball. The home side's inability to trouble England and win the ball meant there were very few throws: Ireland had seven and England had nine, so under 33.5 looks a good bet here.

The Three Lions’ matches at Euro 2024 saw an average of 29.14 throws per game, the fifth fewest at the tournament. Their last 10 matches have seen an average of 28.7 throws per game.

Possession was evenly split in Finland’s last game, which shouldn’t happen at Wembley. Nevertheless, there were just 28 throws in the match.

Our other betting angle for this game is for the visitors to make 17 tackles or fewer in the match. England’s ability to probe on possession and recycle the ball means that their opponents seldom get the chance to enter a duel and snatch the ball. This was particularly evident in their win over Ireland, in which the home side managed just five tackles in the entire match.

England forced an average of 16.67 tackles per game in the last edition of the Nations League but the alterations in style that we saw in Carsley’s first game in charge suggest we should see fewer here.

The Three Lions’ last 10 matches have seen them force an average of 14 tackles. Their opponents have had 17 or less in eight of those games.

Finland themselves are averaging just 13.47 tackles in their last 10 matches. This drops to 13.5 if we only include the data from their last 10 competitive games. They have exceeded the 17 tackle mark on just two occasions over that period.

For our longer odds bet, we are backing the same betting angles as main bet with tougher bet lines, plus Harry Kane to score in the match.

Kane is England’s all-time leading scorer with 66 goals in 99 appearances for his country. He squandered a couple of golden opportunities to add to that tally against the Republic of Ireland but he has the confidence required to bounce back with a goal here.

Since moving to Bayern Munich, Kane has been even more clinical. He scored 36 goals in the Bundesliga last season. His underlying data is also impressive. Over the course of the last year, Harry has a non-penalty xG of 0.69 per 90 minutes played, meaning he ranks in the top 3% of forwards across Europe’s top five leagues.

England vs Finland Bet Boosts