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EFL Betting Tips: Gab Sutton likes the look of London duo in this weekend's treble

EFL Betting Tips: Millwall, Charlton & Exeter feature in this weekend's treble
EFL Betting Tips: Millwall, Charlton & Exeter feature in this weekend's treble

EFL Pundit Gabriel Sutton is here with his football betting tips for the weekend’s action across all three divisions.

Millwall to beat Barnsley – 21/20

Millwall boss Gary Rowett was delighted with his side’s display in Tuesday night’s 2-0 win over Luton.

The former Birmingham boss took charge of the Lions this time last year, and they have been fantastic defensively ever since – just 38 goals conceded in 40 games under the ex-defender’s guidance.

For the last two games, though, Rowett has switched from the 5-2-3 he has deployed for much of his reign to the 4-2-3-1 he has used in previous jobs.

That might be partly because he has so much faith in individual defenders – the experienced Shaun Hutchinson and aerial specialist Jake Cooper – that he almost does not need a third, even if Alex Pearce is a terrific leader.

The switch allows Millwall to incorporate an extra attacking player, with Mason Bennett operating as a second striker behind Matt Smith in midweek, flanked by the excellent Jed Wallace and the more enigmatic Connor Mahoney.

The Londoners, now up to fourth, will be a tough assignment for Barnsley, who are still on the hunt for a new manager.

Even if a decision is made before Saturday’s trip south, Adam Murray will almost certainly take charge and the caretaker gaffer felt “unbelievable frustration” that his side did not come away from Stoke with a victory last time out, instead having to settle for a 2-2 draw.

Barnsley’s high-pressing style normally allows them to create more openings than their opponents, but errors crept in at Stoke and they look short up top too.

Cauley Woodrow has produced his better performances behind raw runners in Conor Chaplin and Jacob Brown, but the former did not feature in midweek while the latter has since departed without being properly replaced.

Wasteful finishing and bullish defending are key themes for Barnsley and Millwall respectively; a continuation of those trends should mean a home win.

Charlton to win at Northampton - 7/5

It has been a great period for Charlton, on and off the field.

The takeover of Thomas Sandgaard went through in late-September and the Danish-American businessman promptly sanctioned 10 new deals.

Experienced right-back Chris Gunter, talented Chelsea loanee Ian Maatsen, aerial defender Ryan Inniss, ball-playing centre-back Akin Famewo, experienced holding midfielder Ben Watson, Manchester United loanee Dylan Levitt, attacking midfielder Andrew Shinnie, energetic forward Paul Smyth and physical front-man Omar Bogle all joined the South Londoners.

Suddenly, the Addicks squad that looked short on options at the start of the campaign now has depth – as well as quality in the first XI.

It is still a challenge for Lee Bowyer to integrate these new players and build a coherent unit with limited preparation time, but recent events suggests Charlton’s season is more likely to be about troubling that top six than looking over their shoulders.

Championship betting

The latter is something Northampton will be doing this season, though their chances of beating the drop were boosted with a midweek 2-1 victory over Swindon.

Despite that win, it feels the Cobblers squad looks much weaker than the one that secured promotion at Wembley while their key, go-to players – Nicky Adams, Sam Hoskins and recent recruit Danny Rose - are ones who have struggled to make much of an impression at this level previously.

Beyond that, there are lots of other players who are adjusting to senior football or a new level, so survival is a big ask for manager Keith Curle.

Charlton have far more proven quality and the 7/5 available on that to show on the field looks fantastic value.

Exeter to beat Scunthorpe – 3/5

After losing the Play-Off Final to Northampton last season, Exeter City are balancing their hope of staying near the top of League Two this term with the need to develop youth.

Attacking left-back Jack Sparkes, vibrant midfielder Archie Collins, direct wide man Joel Randall, persistent striker Ben Seymour and energetic right-back Josh Key are all homegrown talents – each featured in the midweek 2-1 victory over Exeter.

Ryan Bowman also came off the bench in that game to score his first goal of the season and, given the extent to which the Grecians rely on their centre-forward, that could be a key confidence booster.

Confidence is something lacking in the Scunthorpe camp.

Having fortuitously beaten Carlisle 1-0 on week three, the Iron do at least have their first win of the season which cannot yet be said of fellow strugglers Barrow, Southend or Mansfield.

Neil Cox’s side, though, have been second best performance wise in each of their games to date and have lost four on the spin, following a 1-0 defeat at Cheltenham last time out.

Scunny have recruited young in the summer but, without injured right-back Jordan Clarke, they look short on experience – especially in the middle of the park.

Exeter should get the win that would see them move at least as high as fifth before Saturday’s 3pm kick-offs take place. 

Gab Sutton's EFL Treble
Sat - 15:00
Millwall, Charlton and Exeter all to win
WIN PROB: 11.76%
15/2
Calculate your returns:
£79.00
Why this Tip?
  • Millwall have lost just once this season and head into this game on the back of a 2-0 win in midweek. Barnsley are struggling in 21st
  • Charlton should have and new lease of life after signing 10 new players
  • Scunthorpe are second-bottom while Exeter are knocking on the door of the play-offs
We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
Odds correct as of 2020-10-23 10:45 Odds subject to change.
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