Czech Republic v England Tips: Grealish can light up Wembley

The Czech Republic head to the big smoke to lock horns with England as the two nations bout to decide who tops Group D.

The results from the final round of fixtures in Groups A and B ensured that regardless of the result of Wembley, both teams will progress to the knockout stages. A draw will be good enough to see the Czech’s finish top of the group- due to their superior goal difference- and whilst it should mean England avoid someone from the group of death in the last 16, it will likely pitt the Three Lions against France in the quarter-finals. Therefore, a win will be the only thing on Gareth Southgate’s mind as he hopes his side galvanises the country spirit with a strong performance.

Price wise, the bookmakers have England as odds on favourites at around 8/15. This price gives Southgate's side a 65% chance of victory, however, they have actually won 93% of their games when priced accordingly.

Southgate may consider shuffling his deck here following a lackluster display against the Scots. This combined with the fact that Mason Mount has been ruled out with COVID will likely see the eagerly anticipated inclusion of Jack Grealish. With Phil Foden one yellow card away from a suspension Jadon Sancho may also be included in the starting XI. Elsewhere, a fully fit Harry Maguire may return at the heart of defense alongside fellow Yorkshire man John Stones.

Czech Republic team should remain unchanged. The only uncertainty lies in who will start alongside Tomas Soucek, Alex Kral and Tomas Holes are both in contention. 

My first selection is a bit more of a punt; Jack Grealish to win Man of the Match at 6/1 with William Hill. ‘Super Jack’ has been setting the Premier League a light for the past two seasons yet he has had to bide his time on the international stage but it looks like his time has finally come and I expect him to grasp it with all his might.

Grealish usually plays on the left, socks around his ankles, calf’s bulging. He likes to pick up the ball from deep and drives at the opposition. The sheer time he spends on the ball makes him a prime candidate for the limelight, not to mention the excitement he brings and how he makes things happen.

Amongst the England fans, he’s primed to start but Southgate has been sceptical of his style and rarely favours the individual. However, with Mount ruled out with COVID Grealish should get the nod on tomorrow and I expect he will shine.

Dropping Tyrone Mings may be a tad harsh given his performances in the opening two games, however, he was hardly tested and if Harry Maguire is fit enough to play then he must do so from the off.

Maguire has been a stalwart in the Premier League this season and whilst his big head rarely goes unnoticed, its impact in both boxes sometimes does. On average, he won four aerial duels per game in the EPL, a total only six players bested, he also registered 36 shots, a total on Trent Alexander-Arnold bested. Man Utd’s centre back averaged 1.06 shots and registered 0.27 shots on target per 90, 80% of these shots came courtesy of his ‘Slab-head’.

A pivotal aspect of Southgate’s game plan is set pieces and this is best illustrated by the fact that 35% of the Three Lions shots have come from them. It is also worth noting that over a quarter of Scotland’s 19 shots vs the Czech’s came via set pieces and three of them were from centre backs. Therefore, all things considered I like the look of this punt. 

If you want a big, fat longshot you can combine a Tomas Holes card with a Maguire goal and Both Teams Not to Score at 160/1 with Bet365.

If Grealish starts centrally- as expected- it will likely be Holes covering him. Holes has picked up four cards in total this season but will surely add to that tally if covering Grealish. He drew a booking in his limited gametime on Friday and he was the EPL’s most fouled player drawing an average 4.2 fouls per game. I have also put BTTS no in there as England have not conceded in their last four games.

Best of luck if you are backing any of these selections and please remember to gamble responsibly.