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Crystal Palace v Newcastle Tips: Ayew to test Darlow in tight-knit affair at Selhurst Park

Crystal Palace v Newcastle Tips: Can Jordan Ayew re-find his goalscoring form?
Crystal Palace v Newcastle Tips: Can Jordan Ayew re-find his goalscoring form?

This week's helping of Friday night football comes in the shape of Crystal Palace v Newcastle, and our man @CPragnell has got three football predictions for the game which kicks off at 8pm at Selhurst Park. 

Newcastle travel to south London on the back of two 2-0 defeats against Southampton and Chelsea and currently sit 15th in the Premier League standings, but would move into the top half of the table with a victory here.

Crystal Palace were emphatic in their last outing on home soil - thrashing Leeds 4-1 before the international break - but were disappointing in their last game away at Burnley, losing 1-0 at Turf Moor. The Eagles are 11th as things stand but would move into 8th with a win, even if it was just for one night. 

The hosts enter this match-up as the 6/5 favourites which means they have been given an implied chance of 45% to clinch all three points by the bookies, while Newcastle are 5/2 and are therefore given a 27% chance of victory. The draw is a best-price 11/5 (31%) with bet365. 

Palace will be without midfielder Luka Milivojevic, who is missing through suspension, while Conor Wickham, Nathan Ferguson and Wayne Hennessey are all ruled out with injuries. James Tomkins is a doubt and faces a late fitness test, while star man Wilfried Zaha will miss out again after he recently tested positive for coronavirus.

Newcastle are without long-term absentees Martin Dubravka, Dwight Gayle and Paul Dummett, while it remains to be seen if striker Callum Wilson will feature as the England international makes a return from the injury he sustained against Southampton at the start of November. Jamal Lascelles, Ryan Fraser and Matt Richie are all doubts for the visitors.

 

Premier League betting
Crystal Palace v Newcastle
Fri, 20:00
Patrick van Aanholt 1+ shot on target
  • Van Aanholt has recorded 3 shots on target in 4 premier League games this season
  • Very attacking full-back who loves to bomb forward and help out in the final third
Odds correct as of 2020-11-26 10:10 Odds subject to change.

To kick things off I'm getting behind Patrick van Aanholt to have one or more shots on target, priced at 6/5 with Paddy Power. 

The Dutch full-back is an extremely attacking player and loves to bomb forward to help out in the final third. The 30-year-old has so far registered six shots on goal in his seven league appearances - three of which have been on target. 

With Wilfried Zaha ruled out due to coronavirus, Eberechi Eze will most probably line up on the left hand side of Palace's midfield, just like he did against Burnley on Monday evening. Although the Eagles' performance was poor overall in that game, most of their attacking play came down the left hand side, with van Aanholt constantly overlapping Eze to create chances in the attacking third. 

I think this will be the case again on Friday evening and can see the Dutch defender popping shots off from range - like we have seen him do so often - to hopefully land us this selection. He is also on free-kick duty a lot of the time which only enhances the chances of this bet landing.

Premier League relegation betting
Correct score: 1-1 draw
  • This history of this fixture is a tragedy, with under 1.5 goals landing in the last 7 meetings between the pair
  • Palace could be without Zaha due to COVID-19 but have scored at least one goal in each of their home games this season
  • Newcastle have struggled to score in their last two games but with Callum Wilson's potential return I think they'll be able to notch once in south London
Odds correct as of 2020-11-26 10:40 Odds subject to change.

Looking at the previous results between these two sides and it doesn't make for particularly interesting reading. Under 1.5 goals has landed in the last SEVEN meetings between the pair, which suggests that this encounter will be another low-scoring affair with few attacking opportunities. 

Palace have managed to score at least once in each of their four home games this season, however, and last time out stuck four past Leeds United, so I can see them getting on the scoresheet in this one even without their biggest attacking threat, especially against a Newcastle defence who have failed to keep a clean sheet since September 12. 

I was very tempted to tip 1-0 Palace due to the Magpies not scoring a goal in their last two outings against Southampton and Chelsea, but the main thinking behind going with a low-scoring draw is that Callum Wilson - who has six league goals to his name - should return for this one, and if he does I'd fancy him to find an opening against a leaky Palace back-line who have failed to keep a clean sheet since the season's opening day. 

Even if Wilson doesn't score himself, just his presence on the pitch and the clever off-ball runs he makes opens up more space for the likes of Allan Saint-Maximin to benefit from. I expect Newcastle to get on the scoresheet here but also don't feel confident in their ability to shut the hosts out. 6/1 (BetVictor) represents strong value, too, considering the same bet is 5/1 with most other bookmakers. 

James McCarthur & Isaac Hayen to be booked, Jordan Ayew 1+ shot on target
  • McCarthur commits on average 1.7 fouls p.g and has been booked twice for Palace this term
  • Hayden is up there with most fouls committed in the Premier League this season. He's managed to commit 15 in 7 games and has also picked up 3 yellow cards so far
  • Jordan Ayew will lead the line for Palace and averages a shot per game, he should test Darlow on home soil
Odds correct as of 2020-11-26 11:10 Odds subject to change.

To round things off I've picked out an appetising 22/1 longshot, boosted from 20/1 by Paddy Power. 

Palace midfielder James McCarthur is the club's joint-most booked player this season having picked up two yellows, and the Scotland international also averages more fouls per game than any of his teammates with 1.7.

The 33-year-old makes on average 2.6 tackles per game and is always in the thick of the action in central midfield, and up against the pace and trickery of Saint-Maximin, who loves to drift in from the wide areas, I can see him possibly making a rash challenge and ending up in the referees notepad. 

The same can be said for Newcastle's Isaac Hayden, who is his team's joint-most booked player in 20/21 with three yellows in seven league matches. Hayden averages a whopping 2.1 fouls per game and is prone to a silly tackle which I'm hoping will again be the case at Selhurst Park.

And finally, Jordan Ayew will lead the line for Palace in this one and should see a few opportunities fall his way in front of goal. The Ghanian was the club's top scorer last season with nine goals but has had a slow start this time out, largely hindered by catching COVID-19 last month.

Now, though, he is back to fitness and will be eager to start adding to his one-goal tally; the 29-year-old averages 1 shot on goal p.g and I'm backing him to test Karl Darlow on home soil.

Good luck to anyone following these bets, but please remember to gamble responsibly. 

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