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Crystal Palace v Manchester United Tips: United set to break penalty record against current holders

Pogba has registered a shot on target in his last three games and we're backing him to do so again against Crystal Palace
Pogba has registered a shot on target in his last three games and we're backing him to do so again against Crystal Palace

Crystal Palace host Manchester United at 20:15pm Thursday with a potential chance for Solskjaer’s side to go above Leicester and into fourth place if The Foxes drop points at home to Sheffield United in one of the evenings 18:00 kick-offs. The last time The Eagles beat Man United at Selhurst Park was all the way back in 1991 on the day that Andrej Kanchelsksis made his debut for the club.

Having a look at team news for the game, there could be a potential dilemma for Ole Gunnar Solskjaer at left back with both Luke Shaw and Brandon Williams going off in Monday night's game against Southampton. Neither have trained today and will be assessed tomorrow with DIego Dalot in line for a potential return for his first start since October if called upon. Phil Jones and Axel Tuanzebe also remain sidelined through injury for The Red Devils.

Palace sit 14th in the table with 42 points and will be without striker Christian Benteke after he was sent off in the game against Aston Villa. Jordan Ayew looks set to return as the sole striker for Roy Hodgson’s side. Gary Cahill, and James Tompkins are both set to miss out for Palace so they may have to stick with the centre back pairing of Mamadou Sakho and Scott Dann. 

Having a look at the prices for the game, William Hill have United as short as 1/3 to claim a vital three points in the pursuit of the Champions League places with the draw available at 4/1. A home win for Palace is currently top price with BetVictor at 11/1 giving the hosts an 8% implied chance of victory. The game can be viewed live on BT Sport 1 and I’ve picked out three betting tips for the game which look good value.

Crystal Palace v Manchester United Tip #1
20:15
Paul Pogba to have 1+ shot on target
WIN PROB: 45.45%
1.2/1
Calculate your returns:
£79.00
Why this Tip?

Pogba has had one or more shots on target in his last three games

Teams putting more emphasis on closing down Fernandes is potentially giving Pogba more room to shoot

We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
Odds correct as of 2020-07-15 17:10 Odds subject to change.

First up I’ve had a dive into the shots on target market and have opted for Paul Pogba to have one or more shots on target at the rather generous price of 6/5 with PaddyPower. First up, this bet has landed in United’s last three games and I don’t see any reason why it can’t fly in again for us on Thursday evening.

One of my key angles here is how in the last few Manchester United games, their opposition seems to be putting a lot of emphasis on stopping Bruno Fernandes, closing him down with two or three players at a time. I feel this is giving Paul Pogba potentially more room around the edge of the area to let fly. Fernandes is priced at 2/9 to have one shot on target in the game so I feel we are getting a lot more bang for our buck here with Pogba. 

This same selection is priced at 13/20 with Coral and 10/11 with Skybet which gives plenty of appeal to the enhanced price of 6/5 with PaddyPower. 

 

Crystal Palace v Manchester United Tip #2
20:15
Manchester United to score a penalty
WIN PROB: 20%
4/1
Calculate your returns:
£79.00
Why this Tip?

United have been awarded a record equalling 13 league penalties this season 

Palace commit a lot of fouls having three of the top nine players in the leagues in the foul rankings this season. 

We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
Odds correct as of 2020-07-15 17:05 Odds subject to change.

Next up I’m backing United to score a penalty, priced at 4/1 with bet365. If you hadn’t heard already, Solskjaer’s side have been awarded a record equaling 13 penalties this season. The club holding the record is Palace who racked up 13 in the 2004/2005 season with Andy Johnson slotting a good load of those home if you cast your minds back and It feels fitting that United will break this record against the current holders tomorrow.

Of United’s 13 Premier League penalties they have been awarded this season they have converted nine but since Bruno Fernandes has been at the club he has been the first choice taker and has converted four times out of four.

Another key angle here is that Palace commit a lot of fouls. I’ve had a look into the players who have committed the most fouls in the league this season and Crystal Palace have three of the top nine players on the list, with Luka Milivojevic, James McArthur and Jordan Ayew. Betfair are 7/2 on United to score a penalty and I’ve taken a nibble on the 4/1 on offer from bet365.

Crystal Palace v Manchester United Tip #3
20:15
Fernandes & Ayew 1+ shot on target, Milivojevic & Wan-Bissaka to be carded
WIN PROB: 1.49%
66/1
Calculate your returns:
£79.00
Why this Tip?

Fernandes has been involved in a goal every 53 minutes since he arrived at the club and has the most shots per game on average

Ayew has scored nine this season and looks the main threat with Benteke serving a suspension

Nobody in the Premier League has been booked more times than Luke Milivojevic this season (11)

Aaron Wan-Bissaka looks good value to be carded considering he's booked seven times this season

We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
Odds correct as of 2020-07-15 17:05 Odds subject to change.

My third punt for the evening as usual is a longshot and this time I’m going for Bruno Fernandes and Jordan Ayew to have one or more shots on target with both Luka Milivojevic and Aaron Wan-Bissaka to be carded at 66/1, available with both Betfair and PaddyPower.

Monday night’s 2-2 draw with Southampton was the first time since the resumption of the Premier League that Bruno Fernandes had not registered a shot on target. He’s still got the highest average of any player at United since he has been at the club in terms of shots per game and I’m adding him in to have one on target here. United are 1/3 in the top 4 betting market and really could do with winning here which I think should bring a big performance from Ole’s side.

Christian Benteke is suspended after kicking Ezri Konsa after the full-time whistle at Villa Park  so Jordan Ayew is set to come in and lead the line for the hosts. At home this season Ayew averages higher than any player when it comes to both shots and shots on target. He’s scored nine already in the league and at just under evens, he looks the right player to be added into this Same Game Multi.

Onto the bookings and first up I’ve picked out Luka Milivojevic for the Eagles. Nobody has been booked more times in the league than the Serbian this season with him having received 11 cautions along with Bournemouth’s Jefferson Lerma. Milivojevic has unsurprisingly committed the most amount of fouls at Crystal Palace this season and I’m adding him into this 66/1 longshot.

Finally I’m doing the unthinkable and backing Aaron Wan-Bissaka to be carded for the third consecutive game in a row. He goes to ground too easily and for me always seems to look a good price in the cards market at around 5/1 for a man that has now been booked seven times in the league this season. Wilf Zaha is known to switch flanks and could well give AWB a bit of work to do along with Andros Townsend who loves to cut inside onto his left foot. Putting these four elements together gives us an attractive looking 66/1 poke that hopefully can go close, as in United’s last two games where we have managed to land three out for four. and two out of four elements of our longshot. Enjoy the game and please remember to always gamble responsibly.

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